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Rankings
#45 of 107 in Division 3
#10 of 26 in Region 11
Strength of schedule #20 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #50 in D3 (-155 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 24-0 H #79 Louisville (4-0) D2 R7, pick: W by 23 (85%), perf. rating 107
08/29 L 21-13 A #85 West Branch (3-1) D4 R13, pick: L by 23 (12%), perf. rating 134
09/05 W 42-7 H #446 Wooster (0-4) D2 R7, pick: W by 28 (94%), perf. rating 137
09/12 L 34-7 H #74 Ashland (4-0) D2 R7, pick: L by 15 (19%), perf. rating 103
09/19 A #401 Mansfield Senior (0-4) D3 R10, pick: W by 23 (92%)
09/26 H Linsly WV (1-2) D7
10/03 A #338 Madison (Mansfield) (2-2) D3 R10, pick: W by 15 (83%)
10/10 A #133 Lexington (3-1) D3 R10, pick: L by 16 (15%)
10/17 H #119 West Holmes (3-1) D4 R15, pick: L by 14 (18%)
10/24 A #246 Dover (1-3) D3 R11, pick: W by 3 (58%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
6.38 Harbin points (divisor 98)
out of R11 playoffs
Playoff chances now
11% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 7.05 ( 1.71-18.65) 12% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Granville (3-1) 16%
Lose: 3.69 ( 0.60-14.99) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 7W: 16.41 (15.23-18.65) 100% in, 19% home, proj. #10 (#7-#12), Athens (4-0) 14%
(11%) 6W: 12.38 (10.70-17.53) 59% in, 2% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Granville (3-1) 17%
(25%) 5W: 9.49 ( 7.34-14.08) 10% in, proj. out (#9-out), Granville (3-1) 19%
(32%) 4W: 6.38 ( 4.60-11.18) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(21%) 3W: 4.00 ( 2.42- 7.77) out, proj. out
( 7%) 2W: 2.27 ( 1.31- 5.69) out, proj. out
( 1%) 1W: 0.60 ( 0.60- 1.67) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWWWWW: 16.41 (15.23-18.65) 100% in, 19% home, proj. #10 (#7-#12), Athens (4-0) 14%
( 4%) WWWLWW: 11.98 (10.70-14.38) 45% in, proj. out (#10-out), Bloom-Carroll (2-2) 19%
( 5%) WLWLWW: 10.71 ( 9.48-13.21) 17% in, proj. out (#10-out), Granville (3-1) 23%
(11%) WWWLLW: 7.80 ( 7.34-10.36) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Hamilton Township (4-0) 44%
(13%) WLWLLW: 6.74 ( 6.28- 8.83) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Bloom-Carroll (2-2) 100%
(10%) WWWLLL: 5.42 ( 4.65- 7.92) out
(12%) WLWLLL: 4.00 ( 3.94- 5.83) out
( 1%) LLLLLL: 0.60 ( 0.60- 1.67) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 121.1, #207, D3 #45), 11% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 3 (1-2, 124.8, #189, D3 #41), 29% (bubble if 5-5), 9% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (0-2, 117.6, #242, D3 #52), 11% (bubble if 5-5), 3% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (0-1, 111.0, #284, D3 #59), 11% (bubble if 6-4), 3% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 131.4, #144, D3 #34), 56% (bubble if 6-4), 37% home (maybe if 7-3), 16% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #12 at 6-4
Last season 134.0