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Rankings
#32 of 105 in Division 5
#5 of 27 in Region 19
Strength of schedule #13 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #52 in D5 (-170 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 36-6 H #408 Northland (2-1) D2 R7, pick: W by 21 (83%), perf. rating 136
08/28 L 36-12 H #100 Jonathan Alder (3-0) D3 R11, pick: L by 1 (48%), perf. rating 100
09/04 L 24-18 A #331 Heath (2-1) D4 R15, pick: W by 11 (73%), perf. rating 98
09/10 H #84 Granville (2-1) D3 R11, pick: L by 27 (5%)
09/18 A #336 Worthington Christian (3-0) D5 R19, pick: W by 3 (57%)
09/25 H #506 Bexley (1-2) D3 R11, pick: W by 28 (96%)
10/02 A #424 Franklin Heights (0-3) D2 R8, pick: W by 16 (85%)
10/09 H #238 Buckeye Valley (2-1) D4 R15, pick: L by 6 (35%)
10/16 A #234 Bishop Ready (2-1) D4 R15, pick: L by 11 (23%)
10/23 A #295 Whitehall-Yearling (1-2) D2 R7, pick: L by 2 (44%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
15.05 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#5 seed in R19 playoffs
Playoff chances now
82% (bubble if 3-7), 60% home (maybe if 4-6), 29% bye (likely needs 6-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 22.10 ( 8.45-30.65) 99% in, 96% home, 77% bye, proj. #3 (#1-out), bye 78%
Lose: 13.00 ( 2.80-25.80) 81% in, 58% home, 26% bye, proj. #7 (#1-out), bye 32%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 8W: 27.55 (25.20-30.65) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#3), bye 100%
(10%) 7W: 23.20 (20.15-26.30) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(17%) 6W: 19.00 (15.10-23.85) 100% home, 85% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 85%
(22%) 5W: 15.05 (11.30-20.25) 100% in, 98% home, 14% bye, proj. #6 (#1-#11), bye 14%
(23%) 4W: 11.40 ( 8.25-16.70) 98% in, 44% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#3-out), Meigs (2-1) 13%
(18%) 3W: 8.30 ( 5.50-13.05) 50% in, 3% home, proj. out (#5-out), Wheelersburg (1-2) 17%
( 8%) 2W: 6.10 ( 3.45- 9.65) 6% in, proj. out (#9-out)
( 1%) 1W: 3.95 ( 2.80- 5.65) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WWWWWWW: 27.55 (25.20-30.65) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#3), bye 100%
( 8%) LWWWWWW: 23.20 (20.15-25.80) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
( 7%) LWWWWLW: 18.90 (15.55-21.50) 100% home, 85% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 85%
( 6%) LWWWLLW: 14.70 (11.30-17.90) 100% in, 98% home, 9% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#11), Meigs (2-1) 11%
( 9%) LWWWLLL: 11.38 ( 8.25-15.20) 98% in, 38% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Meigs (2-1) 13%
(11%) LLWWLLL: 7.80 ( 5.50-10.70) 32% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Wheelersburg (1-2) 20%
( 6%) LLWLLLL: 6.10 ( 4.40- 8.90) 5% in, proj. out (#10-out), Wheelersburg (1-2) 24%
( 1%) LLLLLLL: 3.95 ( 2.80- 5.65) out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (1-2, 109.4, #297, D5 #32), 82% (bubble if 3-7), 60% home (maybe if 4-6), 29% bye (likely needs 6-4), proj. #5 at 5-5
Week 2 (1-1, 113.7, #263, D5 #29), 89% (bubble if 3-7), 73% home (maybe if 5-5), 45% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. #6 at 6-4
Week 1 (1-0, 125.0, #179, D5 #14), 93% (bubble if 4-6), 84% home (maybe if 5-5), 63% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #3 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 119.0, #211, D5 #21), 82% (bubble if 4-6), 70% home (maybe if 5-5), 50% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #3 at 7-3
Last season 120.4