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Rankings
#29 of 106 in Division 5
#9 of 27 in Region 19
Strength of schedule #10 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #18 in D5 (+205 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 14-7 A #305 Northland (2-2) D2 R7, pick: W by 19 (81%), perf. rating 121
08/29 L 14-12 A #191 Jonathan Alder (4-0) D4 R15, pick: L by 18 (18%), perf. rating 124
09/05 L 34-7 H #254 Heath (1-3) D4 R15, pick: W by 19 (86%), perf. rating 73
09/12 W 40-34 A #246 Dover (1-3) D3 R11, pick: L by 22 (10%), perf. rating 127
09/19 H #560 Worthington Christian (1-3) D5 R19, pick: W by 34 (98%)
09/26 A #467 Bexley (2-2) D3 R11, pick: W by 25 (94%)
10/03 H #390 Franklin Heights (3-1) D2 R7, pick: W by 16 (85%)
10/10 A #173 Buckeye Valley (4-0) D3 R11, pick: L by 17 (13%)
10/17 H #236 Bishop Ready (1-3) D4 R15, pick: L by 3 (42%)
10/24 H #328 Whitehall-Yearling (2-2) D2 R7, pick: W by 9 (72%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
17.15 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#6 seed in R19 playoffs
Playoff chances now
95% (bubble if 4-6), 74% home (maybe if 5-5), 20% bye (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 17.45 ( 5.95-28.50) 95% in, 75% home, 21% bye, proj. #6 (#1-out), bye 22%
Lose: 13.12 ( 6.15-25.20) 70% in, 37% home, 5% bye, proj. #10 (#2-out), Amanda-Clearcreek (1-3) 14%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 8%) 8W: 25.60 (22.25-28.50) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#5), bye 99%
(28%) 7W: 20.70 (17.35-25.65) 100% in, 99% home, 42% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#9), bye 42%
(33%) 6W: 17.15 (13.80-21.25) 100% in, 94% home, 2% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#12), Valley (4-0) 16%
(21%) 5W: 14.05 (10.70-18.50) 98% in, 31% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Zane Trace (3-1) 20%
( 7%) 4W: 11.20 ( 8.20-14.60) 60% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Africentric Early Coll. (3-1) 21%
( 2%) 3W: 8.98 ( 5.95-11.40) 10% in, proj. out (#10-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 8%) WWWWWW: 25.60 (22.25-28.50) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#5), bye 99%
( 4%) WWWWLW: 22.10 (19.65-25.20) 100% home, 68% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#6), bye 68%
(22%) WWWLWW: 20.45 (17.35-23.60) 100% in, 99% home, 34% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#9), bye 34%
(21%) WWWLLW: 17.10 (13.80-20.05) 100% in, 95% home, 2% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#10), Valley (4-0) 16%
( 7%) WWWLWL: 16.90 (14.10-20.35) 100% in, 92% home, 2% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#11), Valley (4-0) 20%
(13%) WWWLLL: 14.05 (10.90-17.20) 98% in, 30% home, proj. #9 (#6-out), Zane Trace (3-1) 21%
( 5%) WWLLLL: 11.10 ( 8.20-13.75) 54% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Africentric Early Coll. (3-1) 23%
( 1%) WLLLLL: 8.85 ( 5.95-10.65) 10% in, proj. out (#10-out), Africentric Early Coll. (3-1) 43%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 111.9, #273, D5 #29), 95% (bubble if 4-6), 74% home (maybe if 5-5), 20% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #6 at 6-4
Week 3 (1-2, 104.6, #343, D5 #39), 47% (bubble if 4-6), 21% home (likely needs 6-4), 3% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (1-1, 118.1, #234, D5 #22), 85% (bubble if 5-5), 59% home (maybe if 6-4), 25% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #8 at 6-4
Week 1 (1-0, 115.2, #249, D5 #25), 81% (bubble if 5-5), 57% home (maybe if 6-4), 32% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #10 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 117.9, #223, D5 #21), 77% (bubble if 5-5), 59% home (maybe if 6-4), 37% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #2 at 7-3
Last season 116.8