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Rankings
#20 of 101 in Division 4
#4 of 26 in Region 15
Strength of schedule #18 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #19 in D4 (+127 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 21-14 A #115 Triway (3-0) D5 R18, pick: L by 15 (25%), perf. rating 127
08/28 W 49-0 H #510 John Adams (1-1) D3 R9, pick: W by 33 (95%), perf. rating 139
09/04 W 50-39 A #282 Orrville (2-1) D4 R13, pick: W by 7 (65%), perf. rating 130
09/11 H #494 Mansfield Senior (0-3) D3 R10, pick: W by 36 (98%)
09/18 A #237 Madison (Mansfield) (2-1) D3 R10, pick: W by 7 (67%)
09/25 H #169 Dover (1-2) D3 R11, pick: W by 3 (57%)
10/02 A #201 Lexington (0-3) D3 R10, pick: W by 3 (58%)
10/09 H #164 Ashland (3-0) D2 R7, pick: W by 2 (55%)
10/16 H #249 New Philadelphia (0-3) D3 R11, pick: W by 13 (80%)
10/23 A #387 Wooster (0-3) D2 R7, pick: W by 26 (96%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
17.99 Harbin points (divisor 99)
#5 seed in R15 playoffs
Playoff chances now
82% (bubble if 5-5), 63% home (maybe if 6-4), 39% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 18.45 ( 4.73-28.69) 83% in, 64% home, 39% bye, proj. #6 (#1-out), bye 47%
Lose: 11.70 ( 3.68-27.48) 46% in, 28% home, 10% bye, proj. out (#2-out), bye 23%
Based on eventual number of wins
(19%) 9W: 26.06 (22.53-28.69) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#5), bye 99%
(23%) 8W: 21.77 (16.87-27.48) 100% in, 99% home, 75% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#10), bye 75%
(20%) 7W: 17.99 (13.40-24.10) 99% in, 84% home, 15% bye, proj. #6 (#2-out), bye 15%
(17%) 6W: 14.56 ( 9.87-20.67) 88% in, 28% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#3-out), Union Local (3-0) 11%
(12%) 5W: 11.64 ( 7.24-18.56) 41% in, 3% home, proj. out (#6-out), Union Local (3-0) 13%
( 7%) 4W: 9.22 ( 5.38-15.33) 8% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Johnstown (2-1) 17%
( 2%) 3W: 7.51 ( 4.73-12.56) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(19%) WWWWWWW: 26.06 (22.53-28.69) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#5), bye 99%
( 5%) WWWLWWW: 22.48 (18.94-26.32) 100% home, 84% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 84%
( 3%) WLWWWWW: 21.82 (17.93-25.51) 100% home, 78% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 78%
( 6%) WWLWWWW: 21.62 (17.83-25.71) 100% in, 99% home, 77% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#9), bye 77%
( 6%) WWWWLWW: 20.66 (16.87-24.40) 100% in, 99% home, 57% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#10), bye 57%
( 3%) WWLLWWW: 18.70 (14.86-21.93) 100% in, 92% home, 19% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#12), bye 19%
( 4%) WWWLLWW: 17.59 (13.90-21.38) 99% in, 80% home, 7% bye, proj. #7 (#3-out), East Liverpool (2-1) 10%
( 2%) WLLLLLL: 7.46 ( 4.73-10.64) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Philo (2-1) 100%
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (2-1, 127.2, #165, D4 #20), 82% (bubble if 5-5), 63% home (maybe if 6-4), 39% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #5 at 7-3
Week 2 (1-1, 126.2, #173, D4 #18), 69% (bubble if 5-5), 47% home (maybe if 7-3), 20% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #7 at 7-3
Week 1 (0-1, 120.8, #211, D4 #26), 65% (bubble if 5-5), 42% home (maybe if 6-4), 16% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #8 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 119.5, #206, D4 #22), 58% (bubble if 5-5), 38% home (maybe if 6-4), 17% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #9 at 6-4
Last season 119.7