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Rankings
#14 of 106 in Division 5
#4 of 26 in Region 18
Strength of schedule #34 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #19 in D5 (+160 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 40-21 H #348 Kenton (1-3) D4 R14, pick: W by 17 (78%), perf. rating 129
08/29 L 48-14 A #34 Liberty Center (4-0) D5 R18, pick: L by 28 (8%), perf. rating 111
09/05 W 35-13 H #382 Wauseon (0-4) D4 R14, pick: W by 30 (95%), perf. rating 129
09/12 W 41-0 H #505 Rossford (2-2) D4 R14, pick: W by 36 (98%), perf. rating 138
09/19 A #615 Fostoria (0-4) D5 R18, pick: W by 45 (99%)
09/26 A #344 Otsego (2-2) D5 R18, pick: W by 22 (92%)
10/03 H #176 Oak Harbor (4-0) D5 R18, pick: W by 4 (60%)
10/10 A #202 Genoa Area (3-1) D5 R18, pick: W by 5 (63%)
10/17 H #502 Lake (Millbury) (0-4) D5 R18, pick: W by 38 (99%)
10/24 A #384 Maumee (2-2) D3 R10, pick: W by 26 (96%)
Regular season projections
8-2 record
17.00 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#9 seed in R18 playoffs
Playoff chances now
96% (bubble if 6-4), 70% home (likely needs 8-2), 32% bye (likely needs 9-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 17.15 ( 5.00-23.90) 96% in, 71% home, 32% bye, proj. #7 (#1-out), bye 33%
Based on eventual number of wins
(36%) 9W: 21.30 (19.80-23.90) 100% home, 87% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#8), bye 87%
(36%) 8W: 17.00 (15.25-22.10) 100% in, 90% home, 2% bye, proj. #7 (#2-#10), Fairview (Fairv. Park) (2-2) 21%
(21%) 7W: 12.90 (11.30-18.45) 99% in, 10% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Norwayne (2-2) 15%
( 6%) 6W: 9.80 ( 8.40-14.25) 57% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Liberty-Benton (4-0) 31%
( 1%) 5W: 7.50 ( 5.45-10.70) 16% in, proj. out (#10-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(36%) WWWWWW: 21.30 (19.80-23.90) 100% home, 87% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#8), bye 87%
( 2%) WLWWWW: 17.85 (16.50-20.50) 100% in, 94% home, 3% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#9), Fairview (Fairv. Park) (2-2) 18%
(16%) WWWLWW: 17.05 (15.55-19.55) 100% in, 88% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#10), Fairview (Fairv. Park) (2-2) 21%
(17%) WWLWWW: 16.65 (15.25-19.20) 100% in, 90% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#10), Fairview (Fairv. Park) (2-2) 23%
( 2%) WLWLWW: 13.65 (12.25-15.65) 99% in, 8% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Liberty-Benton (4-0) 15%
(14%) WWLLWW: 12.80 (11.30-15.30) 99% in, 5% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Norwayne (2-2) 16%
( 2%) WWLLWL: 9.80 ( 8.65-12.30) 67% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Liberty-Benton (4-0) 31%
( 3%) WLLLWW: 9.47 ( 8.40-11.90) 38% in, proj. out (#10-out), Liberty-Benton (4-0) 38%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 128.7, #166, D5 #14), 96% (bubble if 6-4), 70% home (likely needs 8-2), 32% bye (likely needs 9-1), proj. #9 at 8-2
Week 3 (2-1, 128.4, #172, D5 #16), 93% (bubble if 6-4), 68% home (likely needs 8-2), 29% bye (likely needs 9-1), proj. #6 at 8-2
Week 2 (1-1, 125.7, #178, D5 #17), 90% (bubble if 6-4), 58% home (likely needs 8-2), 10% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #7 at 8-2
Week 1 (1-0, 134.3, #128, D5 #11), 96% (bubble if 5-5), 75% home (maybe if 7-3), 26% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #7 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 131.0, #146, D5 #12), 91% (bubble if 4-6), 73% home (maybe if 6-4), 32% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #6 at 7-3
Last season 133.3