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Rankings
#23 of 105 in Division 5
#11 of 25 in Region 18
Strength of schedule #19 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #17 in D5 (+190 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 28-20 A #380 Kenton (0-3) D4 R14, pick: W by 24 (86%), perf. rating 112
08/28 L 41-14 H #25 Liberty Center (3-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 32 (5%), perf. rating 124
09/04 W 12-7 A #375 Wauseon (0-3) D4 R14, pick: W by 24 (91%), perf. rating 108
09/11 A #485 Rossford (1-2) D4 R14, pick: W by 29 (96%)
09/18 H #552 Fostoria (0-3) D4 R14, pick: W by 36 (99%)
09/25 H #310 Otsego (2-1) D4 R14, pick: W by 12 (78%)
10/02 A #247 Oak Harbor (2-1) D5 R18, pick: L by 1 (47%)
10/09 H #217 Genoa Area (2-1) D5 R18, pick: L by 1 (47%)
10/16 A #423 Lake (Millbury) (2-1) D4 R14, pick: W by 23 (93%)
10/23 H #311 Maumee (2-1) D3 R10, pick: W by 12 (79%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
14.15 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#11 seed in R18 playoffs
Playoff chances now
72% (bubble if 6-4), 45% home (likely needs 8-2), 19% bye (likely needs 9-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 15.75 ( 2.10-25.80) 74% in, 46% home, 19% bye, proj. #9 (#1-out), bye 26%
Lose: 9.40 ( 1.95-21.70) 31% in, 11% home, 3% bye, proj. out (#2-out), Port Clinton (3-0) 9%
Based on eventual number of wins
(19%) 9W: 21.95 (20.45-25.80) 100% home, 88% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 88%
(27%) 8W: 17.90 (16.00-23.15) 99% in, 85% home, 7% bye, proj. #7 (#1-out), Galion (2-1) 11%
(25%) 7W: 14.15 (12.10-19.45) 87% in, 12% home, 1% bye, proj. #11 (#4-out), Port Clinton (3-0) 10%
(17%) 6W: 10.80 ( 8.45-15.85) 22% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Archbold (3-0) 13%
( 8%) 5W: 7.85 ( 5.75-14.30) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
( 3%) 4W: 5.40 ( 3.55- 9.90) out, proj. out
( 1%) 3W: 3.75 ( 1.95- 7.00) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(19%) WWWWWWW: 21.95 (20.45-25.80) 100% home, 88% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 88%
(10%) WWWLWWW: 17.95 (16.00-21.55) 99% in, 84% home, 7% bye, proj. #7 (#1-out), Galion (2-1) 10%
( 3%) WWLWWWW: 17.95 (16.15-21.35) 100% in, 94% home, 15% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), bye 15%
(11%) WWWWLWW: 17.80 (16.25-21.05) 100% in, 79% home, 3% bye, proj. #7 (#2-#11), Galion (2-1) 11%
(10%) WWWLLWW: 14.00 (12.15-17.00) 79% in, 5% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Archbold (3-0) 11%
( 4%) WWLLLWW: 10.50 ( 8.60-13.45) 14% in, proj. out (#10-out), Archbold (3-0) 20%
( 5%) WWWLLWL: 10.35 ( 8.45-13.90) 11% in, proj. out (#10-out), Archbold (3-0) 18%
( 2%) WWLLLLL: 4.95 ( 3.55- 8.45) out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (2-1, 117.5, #239, D5 #23), 72% (bubble if 6-4), 45% home (likely needs 8-2), 19% bye (likely needs 9-1), proj. #11 at 7-3
Week 2 (1-1, 122.5, #201, D5 #16), 73% (bubble if 7-3), 46% home (maybe if 8-2), 20% bye (likely needs 9-1), proj. #7 at 8-2
Week 1 (1-0, 125.5, #176, D5 #13), 80% (bubble if 6-4), 53% home (maybe if 8-2), 21% bye (likely needs 9-1), proj. #6 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 129.8, #151, D5 #13), 74% (bubble if 6-4), 51% home (maybe if 7-3), 24% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #3 at 8-2
Last season 129.3