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Rankings
#76 of 107 in Division 3
#19 of 28 in Region 10
Strength of schedule #68 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #70 in D3 (-378 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 42-14 H #263 Springfield (Holland) (2-2) D2 R6, pick: W by 26 (88%), perf. rating 71
08/29 L 21-14 A #196 Napoleon (2-2) D4 R14, pick: L by 32 (5%), perf. rating 115
09/05 W 42-6 H #576 Waite (1-3) D2 R6, pick: W by 37 (98%), perf. rating 118
09/12 W 27-20 H #502 Lake (Millbury) (0-4) D5 R18, pick: W by 24 (92%), perf. rating 87
09/19 A #202 Genoa Area (3-1) D5 R18, pick: L by 24 (7%)
09/26 A #505 Rossford (2-2) D4 R14, pick: W by 17 (86%)
10/03 H #615 Fostoria (0-4) D5 R18, pick: W by 33 (98%)
10/10 A #344 Otsego (2-2) D5 R18, pick: L by 8 (30%)
10/17 A #176 Oak Harbor (4-0) D5 R18, pick: L by 27 (4%)
10/24 H #166 Eastwood (3-1) D5 R18, pick: L by 26 (4%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
6.10 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R10 playoffs
Playoff chances now
9% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 11.80 ( 5.30-21.90) 50% in, 12% home, 1% bye, proj. #12 (#3-out), Toledo Central Catholic (1-3) 13%
Lose: 6.25 ( 1.60-18.60) 6% in, 1% home, proj. out (#5-out), Revere (3-0) 14%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 7W: 16.40 (14.95-18.60) 100% in, 66% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#11), Holy Name (3-1) 16%
( 9%) 6W: 12.40 (11.15-15.15) 74% in, 3% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Revere (3-0) 13%
(29%) 5W: 9.05 ( 7.85-12.70) 4% in, proj. out (#10-out), Shawnee (Lima) (3-1) 17%
(48%) 4W: 6.10 ( 4.85-11.55) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(12%) 3W: 3.60 ( 2.50- 7.75) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) LWWWWL: 12.60 (11.55-14.90) 77% in, 4% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Revere (3-0) 17%
( 3%) LWWWLW: 12.35 (11.20-14.40) 69% in, 2% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Shawnee (Lima) (3-1) 16%
( 3%) WWWWLL: 12.30 (11.15-14.85) 70% in, 2% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Copley (3-1) 13%
( 2%) LWWLWL: 9.80 ( 8.25-12.00) 11% in, proj. out (#10-out), Revere (3-0) 19%
( 3%) LWWLLW: 9.45 ( 7.90-12.05) 7% in, proj. out (#12-out), Shawnee (Lima) (3-1) 28%
(21%) LWWWLL: 8.90 ( 7.85-11.15) 2% in, proj. out (#10-out), Shawnee (Lima) (3-1) 18%
(45%) LWWLLL: 6.05 ( 5.05- 8.90) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Revere (3-0) 100%
(11%) LLWLLL: 3.55 ( 2.50- 6.50) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 98.1, #384, D3 #76), 9% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 3 (1-2, 99.7, #371, D3 #74), 15% (likely needs 6-4), 4% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (0-2, 98.6, #376, D3 #74), 18% (bubble if 6-4), 5% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 5-5
Week 1 (0-1, 90.4, #435, D3 #81), 15% (bubble if 6-4), 4% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 114.2, #250, D3 #49), 62% (bubble if 6-4), 32% home (maybe if 7-3), 8% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #7 at 7-3
Last season 120.8