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Rankings
#72 of 102 in Division 3
#18 of 25 in Region 10
Strength of schedule #82 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #74 in D3 (-343 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 20-14 A #295 Springfield (Holland) (3-3) D2 R6, pick: W by 15 (75%), perf. rating 103
08/28 W 24-21 H #364 Napoleon (1-5) D4 R14, pick: L by 19 (17%), perf. rating 103
09/04 W 29-12 A #425 Waite (4-2) D2 R6, pick: W by 25 (92%), perf. rating 118
09/11 W 40-17 A #448 Lake (Millbury) (3-3) D4 R14, pick: W by 14 (80%), perf. rating 123
09/18 L 56-17 H #193 Genoa Area (4-2) D5 R18, pick: W by 2 (55%), perf. rating 64
09/25 L 33-21 H #408 Rossford (3-3) D4 R14, pick: W by 15 (83%), perf. rating 74
10/02 A #581 Fostoria (0-6) D4 R14, pick: W by 26 (95%)
10/09 H #158 Otsego (4-2) D4 R14, pick: L by 28 (3%)
10/16 H #351 Oak Harbor (3-3) D5 R18, pick: L by 5 (37%)
10/23 A #220 Eastwood (5-1) D5 R18, pick: L by 24 (6%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
8.05 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R10 playoffs
Playoff chances now
60% (bubble if 4-6), 10% home (likely needs 6-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 9.05 ( 6.35-20.80) 61% in, 11% home, 1% bye, proj. #12 (#3-out), Wapakoneta (3-3) 18%
Lose: 7.95 ( 6.40-17.65) 39% in, 5% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Wapakoneta (3-3) 25%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 5%) 6W: 14.80 (13.10-17.65) 100% in, 95% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#10), Tiffin Columbian (4-2) 17%
(37%) 5W: 10.90 ( 9.25-15.35) 96% in, 15% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Buchtel (3-3) 18%
(55%) 4W: 8.05 ( 6.35-13.50) 35% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Wapakoneta (3-3) 35%
( 4%) 3W: 7.55 ( 6.40- 9.15) 20% in, proj. out (#10-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) WLWW: 14.80 (13.10-16.90) 100% in, 95% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#10), Tiffin Columbian (4-2) 17%
( 1%) WWWL: 14.75 (13.20-16.90) 100% in, 93% home, proj. #7 (#5-#10), Tiffin Columbian (4-2) 19%
( 3%) WLLW: 11.90 (10.35-14.45) 99% in, 37% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Buchtel (3-3) 19%
( 2%) WWLL: 11.90 (10.80-13.55) 99% in, 36% home, proj. #9 (#6-out), St Marys Memorial (3-3) 19%
(32%) WLWL: 10.90 ( 9.25-13.50) 95% in, 11% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Buchtel (3-3) 18%
( 1%) LLWL: 10.35 ( 8.80-12.05) 88% in, 4% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Wapakoneta (3-3) 25%
(53%) WLLL: 8.05 ( 6.35-10.55) 33% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Wapakoneta (3-3) 35%
( 4%) LLLL: 7.55 ( 6.40- 9.15) 20% in, proj. out (#10-out), Wapakoneta (3-3) 32%
Weekly summary info
Week 6 (3-3, 95.0, #394, D3 #72), 60% (bubble if 4-6), 10% home (likely needs 6-4), proj. out at 4-6
Week 5 (3-2, 98.9, #370, D3 #70), 91% (bubble if 4-6), 42% home (maybe if 6-4), 5% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #9 at 5-5
Week 4 (3-1, 111.6, #287, D3 #53), 98% (bubble if 4-6), 77% home (maybe if 6-4), 35% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #5 at 7-3
Week 3 (2-1, 107.3, #311, D3 #61), 82% (bubble if 5-5), 52% home (maybe if 6-4), 20% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #7 at 6-4
Week 2 (1-1, 107.6, #307, D3 #61), 86% (bubble if 4-6), 60% home (maybe if 6-4), 22% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #8 at 6-4
Week 1 (0-1, 99.7, #368, D3 #68), 55% (bubble if 4-6), 26% home (maybe if 6-4), 6% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #12 at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 107.9, #294, D3 #56), 67% (bubble if 5-5), 42% home (maybe if 6-4), 15% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 6-4
Last season 104.3