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Rankings
#47 of 102 in Division 4
#12 of 25 in Region 14
Strength of schedule #1 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #58 in D4 (-245 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 28-20 H #220 Eastwood (5-1) D5 R18, pick: L by 24 (14%), perf. rating 106
08/28 L 30-6 A #200 Shawnee (Lima) (3-3) D3 R10, pick: L by 5 (40%), perf. rating 89
09/04 L 45-7 A #72 Ottawa-Glandorf (6-0) D4 R14, pick: L by 35 (3%), perf. rating 91
09/11 W 35-20 H #312 Elida (2-4) D4 R14, pick: L by 9 (30%), perf. rating 127
09/18 L 49-48 A #305 Bath (2-4) D5 R18, pick: L by 13 (21%), perf. rating 109
09/25 L 49-14 H #82 Celina (6-0) D3 R10, pick: L by 29 (3%), perf. rating 89
10/02 A #342 Defiance (1-5) D3 R10, pick: W by 1 (53%)
10/09 H #57 Wapakoneta (3-3) D3 R10, pick: L by 34 (1%)
10/16 A #161 St Marys Memorial (3-3) D3 R10, pick: L by 24 (6%)
10/23 H #162 Van Wert (4-2) D4 R14, pick: L by 21 (8%)
Regular season projections
2-8 record
3.15 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R14 playoffs
Playoff chances now
3% (likely needs 4-6), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 3.55 ( 3.10-13.50) 4% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Bellevue (4-2) 23%
Lose: 2.10 ( 1.55- 9.35) 1% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 4W: 9.65 ( 8.60-10.95) 98% in, 4% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Bellevue (4-2) 20%
(11%) 3W: 6.20 ( 5.60- 9.35) 10% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Otsego (4-2) 36%
(46%) 2W: 3.15 ( 3.10- 6.75) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(42%) 1W: 2.10 ( 1.55- 3.20) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WLWW: 9.25 ( 8.60-10.75) 97% in, 4% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Firelands (4-2) 23%
( 6%) WLLW: 6.20 ( 5.60- 8.80) 8% in, proj. out (#10-out), Otsego (4-2) 45%
( 4%) WLWL: 6.15 ( 5.60- 7.75) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out), Bellevue (4-2) 44%
( 3%) LLLW: 4.60 ( 4.05- 6.75) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Otsego (4-2) 100%
( 2%) LLWL: 4.60 ( 4.05- 6.20) out
(40%) WLLL: 3.15 ( 3.10- 4.80) out
(42%) LLLL: 2.10 ( 1.55- 3.20) out
Weekly summary info
Week 6 (1-5, 105.0, #330, D4 #47), 3% (likely needs 4-6), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 5 (1-4, 105.3, #320, D4 #47), 6% (bubble if 3-7), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 4 (1-3, 101.3, #356, D4 #52), 4% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely, proj. out at 1-9
Week 3 (0-3, 97.6, #380, D4 #63), 4% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely, proj. out at 1-9
Week 2 (0-2, 98.7, #372, D4 #56), 6% (bubble if 4-6), 2% home (maybe if 5-5), proj. out at 1-9
Week 1 (0-1, 106.5, #316, D4 #44), 16% (bubble if 4-6), 7% home (maybe if 6-4), 2% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 2-8
Week 0 (0-0, 102.2, #347, D4 #50), 24% (bubble if 4-6), 12% home (maybe if 6-4), 3% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 2-8
Last season 97.8