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Rankings
#55 of 105 in Division 4
#16 of 25 in Region 14
Strength of schedule #3 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #59 in D4 (-200 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 40-21 A #166 Eastwood (3-1) D5 R18, pick: L by 17 (22%), perf. rating 102
08/29 L 37-6 H #155 Shawnee (Lima) (3-1) D3 R10, pick: W by 6 (62%), perf. rating 83
09/05 W 38-27 H #333 Ottawa-Glandorf (0-4) D4 R14, pick: L by 20 (13%), perf. rating 119
09/12 L 36-18 A #226 Elida (2-2) D4 R14, pick: L by 14 (20%), perf. rating 94
09/19 H #129 Bath (3-1) D4 R14, pick: L by 27 (5%)
09/26 A #249 Celina (1-3) D3 R10, pick: L by 15 (17%)
10/03 H #283 Defiance (2-2) D3 R10, pick: L by 6 (35%)
10/10 A #60 Wapakoneta (4-0) D3 R10, pick: L by 36 (1%)
10/17 H #125 St Marys Memorial (2-2) D3 R10, pick: L by 27 (4%)
10/24 A #208 Van Wert (2-2) D4 R14, pick: L by 20 (9%)
Regular season projections
2-8 record
2.60 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R14 playoffs
Playoff chances now
2% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 7.25 ( 3.00-18.85) 23% in, 2% home, proj. out (#5-out), Bath (3-1) 14%
Lose: 2.05 ( 0.50-16.35) 1% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 5W: 11.35 ( 9.35-15.15) 69% in, 2% home, proj. #12 (#6-out), Bath (3-1) 11%
( 5%) 4W: 7.85 ( 6.30-13.70) 14% in, proj. out (#9-out)
(14%) 3W: 5.15 ( 4.05-11.05) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(33%) 2W: 2.60 ( 2.05- 8.00) out, proj. out
(46%) 1W: 0.50 ( 0.50- 3.65) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) LWWLLW: 7.25 ( 6.65- 9.35) 5% in, proj. out (#11-out), Perkins (1-3) 33%
( 1%) LLWLWL: 5.75 ( 4.20- 7.90) out
( 4%) LLWLLW: 5.15 ( 4.55- 7.90) out
( 5%) LWWLLL: 4.65 ( 4.15- 7.80) out
( 5%) LLLLLW: 3.05 ( 2.50- 5.25) out
( 6%) LWLLLL: 2.60 ( 2.05- 5.20) out
(19%) LLWLLL: 2.55 ( 2.05- 6.25) out
(46%) LLLLLL: 0.50 ( 0.50- 3.65) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 103.2, #348, D4 #55), 2% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 3 (1-2, 104.4, #344, D4 #54), 6% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 2 (0-2, 96.2, #391, D4 #62), 2% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 1-9
Week 1 (0-1, 112.6, #271, D4 #37), 28% (bubble if 5-5), 15% home (maybe if 6-4), 5% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 115.9, #236, D4 #33), 38% (bubble if 5-5), 22% home (maybe if 6-4), 9% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 117.5