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Rankings
#52 of 101 in Division 4
#13 of 25 in Region 14
Strength of schedule #1 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #58 in D4 (-280 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 28-20 H #273 Eastwood (3-1) D5 R18, pick: L by 24 (14%), perf. rating 100
08/28 L 30-6 A #238 Shawnee (Lima) (2-2) D3 R10, pick: L by 5 (40%), perf. rating 84
09/04 L 45-7 A #72 Ottawa-Glandorf (4-0) D4 R14, pick: L by 35 (3%), perf. rating 91
09/11 W 35-20 H #377 Elida (1-3) D4 R14, pick: L by 9 (30%), perf. rating 119
09/18 A #283 Bath (1-3) D5 R18, pick: L by 13 (21%)
09/25 H #86 Celina (4-0) D3 R10, pick: L by 31 (2%)
10/02 A #278 Defiance (1-3) D3 R10, pick: L by 14 (18%)
10/09 H #76 Wapakoneta (1-3) D3 R10, pick: L by 33 (1%)
10/16 A #92 St Marys Memorial (3-1) D3 R10, pick: L by 33 (1%)
10/23 H #181 Van Wert (3-1) D4 R14, pick: L by 21 (8%)
Regular season projections
1-9 record
1.10 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R14 playoffs
Playoff chances now
4% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 4.55 ( 2.55-19.95) 13% in, 2% home, proj. out (#6-out), Clear Fork (3-1) 19%
Lose: 1.55 ( 1.10-14.90) 2% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), Clear Fork (3-1) 23%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 5W: 11.75 ( 9.65-14.90) 99% in, 28% home, proj. #9 (#6-out), Firelands (3-1) 24%
( 3%) 4W: 8.20 ( 6.60-13.00) 64% in, 2% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Clear Fork (3-1) 23%
(11%) 3W: 5.25 ( 4.25- 9.85) 8% in, proj. out (#9-out), Clear Fork (3-1) 27%
(28%) 2W: 3.10 ( 2.55- 7.85) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(56%) 1W: 1.10 ( 1.10- 3.70) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WLWLLW: 7.70 ( 7.00- 9.85) 56% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Clear Fork (3-1) 30%
( 2%) LLWLLW: 5.75 ( 5.10- 8.40) 6% in, proj. out (#11-out), Bellevue (3-1) 39%
( 2%) WLLLLW: 5.55 ( 4.50- 7.30) 5% in, proj. out (#11-out), Clear Fork (3-1) 33%
( 5%) WLWLLL: 4.70 ( 4.55- 7.30) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Bellevue (3-1) 25%
( 5%) LLLLLW: 3.60 ( 3.05- 6.25) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Bellevue (3-1) 100%
(11%) LLWLLL: 3.10 ( 2.65- 5.20) out
(10%) WLLLLL: 2.60 ( 2.55- 4.80) out
(56%) LLLLLL: 1.10 ( 1.10- 3.70) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 101.3, #356, D4 #52), 4% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely, proj. out at 1-9
Week 3 (0-3, 97.6, #380, D4 #63), 4% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely, proj. out at 1-9
Week 2 (0-2, 98.7, #372, D4 #56), 6% (bubble if 4-6), 2% home (maybe if 5-5), proj. out at 1-9
Week 1 (0-1, 106.5, #316, D4 #44), 16% (bubble if 4-6), 7% home (maybe if 6-4), 2% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 2-8
Week 0 (0-0, 102.2, #347, D4 #50), 24% (bubble if 4-6), 12% home (maybe if 6-4), 3% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 2-8
Last season 97.8