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Rankings
#85 of 105 in Division 4
#23 of 25 in Region 14
Strength of schedule #81 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #70 in D4 (-298 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 44-36 H #508 Northwood (2-2) D5 R18, pick: W by 10 (68%), perf. rating 65
08/29 W 33-7 H #576 Waite (1-3) D2 R6, pick: W by 4 (57%), perf. rating 103
09/05 W 34-14 A #642 Rogers (0-4) D3 R10, pick: L by 2 (46%), perf. rating 82
09/12 L 41-0 A #166 Eastwood (3-1) D5 R18, pick: L by 36 (2%), perf. rating 70
09/19 A #502 Lake (Millbury) (0-4) D5 R18, pick: L by 2 (44%)
09/26 H #384 Maumee (2-2) D3 R10, pick: L by 17 (14%)
10/03 H #202 Genoa Area (3-1) D5 R18, pick: L by 33 (2%)
10/10 A #615 Fostoria (0-4) D5 R18, pick: W by 19 (89%)
10/17 A #344 Otsego (2-2) D5 R18, pick: L by 25 (5%)
10/24 H #176 Oak Harbor (4-0) D5 R18, pick: L by 35 (1%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
3.30 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R14 playoffs
Playoff chances now
2% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 4.75 ( 2.15-15.45) 4% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), Napoleon (2-2) 18%
Lose: 3.35 ( 1.70-17.10) 1% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 6W: 9.60 ( 7.90-14.50) 42% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Napoleon (2-2) 19%
(12%) 5W: 6.80 ( 5.10-14.10) 5% in, proj. out (#10-out)
(33%) 4W: 4.70 ( 3.05-10.80) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(42%) 3W: 3.30 ( 2.15- 8.95) out, proj. out
( 9%) 2W: 2.85 ( 1.70- 5.70) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWLWWL: 9.15 ( 7.90-11.80) 36% in, proj. out (#9-out), Napoleon (2-2) 24%
( 3%) WLLWWL: 7.05 ( 5.40-10.30) 4% in, proj. out (#11-out), Napoleon (2-2) 25%
( 7%) WWLWLL: 6.60 ( 5.10- 9.45) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out), Clear Fork (3-1) 20%
( 3%) LWLWLL: 5.35 ( 4.20- 8.20) out
(26%) WLLWLL: 4.20 ( 3.05- 8.00) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Bay (3-1) 100%
( 3%) WLLLLL: 3.70 ( 2.15- 6.60) out
(38%) LLLWLL: 3.30 ( 2.15- 7.20) out
( 9%) LLLLLL: 2.85 ( 1.70- 5.70) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 78.8, #505, D4 #85), 2% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 3 (2-1, 81.5, #492, D4 #83), 5% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (1-1, 74.8, #543, D4 #91), 4% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (0-1, 62.9, #595, D4 #96), 2% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 0 (0-0, 70.2, #555, D4 #92), 12% (bubble if 6-4), 3% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 70.4