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Rankings
#82 of 101 in Division 4
#23 of 25 in Region 14
Strength of schedule #75 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #45 in D4 (0 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 A #526 Northwood (0-0) D5 R18, pick: L by 4 (43%)
08/28 A #567 Waite (0-0) D2 R6, pick: W by 3 (56%)
09/04 H #555 Rogers (0-0) D2 R6, pick: W by 6 (63%)
09/11 H #151 Eastwood (0-0) D5 R18, pick: L by 39 (1%)
09/18 H #465 Lake (Millbury) (0-0) D4 R14, pick: L by 10 (27%)
09/25 A #294 Maumee (0-0) D3 R10, pick: L by 30 (3%)
10/02 A #189 Genoa Area (0-0) D5 R18, pick: L by 38 (1%)
10/09 H #587 Fostoria (0-0) D4 R14, pick: W by 12 (79%)
10/16 H #367 Otsego (0-0) D4 R14, pick: L by 23 (7%)
10/23 A #162 Oak Harbor (0-0) D5 R18, pick: L by 40 (1%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
4.55 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R14 playoffs
Playoff chances now
24% (bubble if 5-5), 9% home (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 7.60 ( 0.45-27.60) 41% in, 16% home, 3% bye, proj. out (#1-out), Napoleon (0-0) 7%
Lose: 2.65 ( 0.00-25.20) 11% in, 3% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#2-out), Bay (0-0) 8%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 9W: 21.10 (17.30-25.20) 100% home, 61% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 61%
( 2%) 8W: 17.40 (12.95-23.75) 100% in, 94% home, 26% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#11), bye 26%
( 5%) 7W: 13.85 ( 9.90-19.50) 99% in, 62% home, 4% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Clearview (0-0) 7%
( 8%) 6W: 11.00 ( 6.05-18.65) 85% in, 25% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#4-out), Bay (0-0) 8%
(12%) 5W: 8.50 ( 4.55-15.35) 49% in, 4% home, proj. out (#5-out), Napoleon (0-0) 8%
(15%) 4W: 6.45 ( 3.00-13.85) 17% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), Napoleon (0-0) 11%
(16%) 3W: 4.55 ( 1.55-10.80) 3% in, proj. out (#9-out), Elida (0-0) 10%
(15%) 2W: 2.70 ( 0.95- 8.45) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
(15%) 1W: 1.10 ( 0.45- 4.85) out, proj. out
(11%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Most likely first round opponents
Bay (0-0) 7%
Napoleon (0-0) 7%
Clyde (0-0) 6%
Clearview (0-0) 6%
Clear Fork (0-0) 6%
Most likely second round opponents
Shelby (0-0) 18%
Buckeye (0-0) 17%
Perkins (0-0) 15%
Napoleon (0-0) 8%
Bay (0-0) 6%
Weekly summary info
Week 0 (0-0, 101.9, #354, D4 #52), 31% (bubble if 4-6), 15% home (maybe if 6-4), 4% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 75.7