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Region 14 playoff probabilities
Region 14 seeding probabilities
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Rankings
#70 of 102 in Division 4
#21 of 25 in Region 14
Strength of schedule #53 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #57 in D4 (-239 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 49-13 A #109 Hopewell-Loudon (8-0) D7 R26, pick: L by 37 (4%), perf. rating 86
08/28 W 36-35 H #412 Northwood (4-4) D5 R18, pick: W by 12 (73%), perf. rating 92
09/04 W 26-8 A #539 Evergreen (1-7) D6 R22, pick: W by 10 (71%), perf. rating 102
09/11 L 40-17 H #402 Maumee (4-4) D3 R10, pick: L by 14 (20%), perf. rating 58
09/18 L 57-56 A #417 Rossford (4-4) D4 R14, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 92
09/25 W 45-27 H #596 Fostoria (0-8) D4 R14, pick: W by 22 (92%), perf. rating 85
10/02 W 35-33 A #180 Otsego (5-3) D4 R14, pick: L by 34 (1%), perf. rating 131
10/09 L 44-12 H #310 Oak Harbor (4-4) D5 R18, pick: L by 3 (42%), perf. rating 59
10/16 H #200 Eastwood (7-1) D5 R18, pick: L by 28 (3%)
10/23 A #183 Genoa Area (5-3) D5 R18, pick: L by 31 (2%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
8.45 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#10 seed in R14 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 7% home (likely needs 5-5)
Depending on the next game
Win: 12.85 (11.90-16.30) 100% in, 99% home, proj. #7 (#6-#9), Buckeye (4-4) 36%
Lose: 8.45 ( 7.15-12.30) 99% in, 4% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Firelands (6-2) 43%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 5%) 5W: 12.45 (11.00-13.30) 100% in, 99% home, proj. #7 (#6-#9), Buckeye (4-4) 37%
(95%) 4W: 8.45 ( 7.15- 9.30) 99% in, 2% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Firelands (6-2) 44%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) WL: 12.85 (11.90-13.30) 100% in, 99% home, proj. #7 (#6-#9), Buckeye (4-4) 37%
( 2%) LW: 11.90 (11.00-12.30) 100% in, 98% home, proj. #7 (#6-#9), Buckeye (4-4) 37%
(95%) LL: 8.45 ( 7.15- 9.30) 99% in, 2% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Firelands (6-2) 44%
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (4-3, 93.7, #407, D4 #63), 92% (likely in at 4-6 or better), 30% home (maybe if 5-5), proj. #11 at 4-6
Week 6 (3-3, 87.2, #448, D4 #74), 13% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 5 (2-3, 85.8, #455, D4 #75), 21% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 4 (2-2, 88.5, #438, D4 #72), 30% (bubble if 4-6), 3% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 4-6
Week 3 (2-1, 91.0, #423, D4 #69), 41% (bubble if 5-5), 12% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (1-1, 82.4, #480, D4 #75), 19% (bubble if 5-5), 5% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (0-1, 85.3, #459, D4 #74), 24% (bubble if 5-5), 7% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 85.8, #465, D4 #74), 27% (bubble if 5-5), 11% home (maybe if 6-4), 2% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 87.0