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Rankings
#72 of 105 in Division 4
#17 of 26 in Region 16
Strength of schedule #34 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #90 in D4 (-633 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 24-14 A #486 Greenville (2-2) D3 R12, pick: W by 39 (96%), perf. rating 68
08/29 W 31-7 H Richmond IN (1-3) D2
09/05 L 45-20 H #171 Talawanda (4-0) D3 R12, pick: L by 22 (11%), perf. rating 88
09/12 L 34-7 A #267 Oakwood (4-0) D4 R16, pick: L by 19 (13%), perf. rating 75
09/19 H #107 Valley View (3-1) D4 R16, pick: L by 36 (1%)
09/26 H #514 Madison (Middletown) (1-3) D5 R20, pick: W by 13 (80%)
10/03 A #412 Monroe (1-3) D2 R8, pick: L by 6 (35%)
10/10 A #190 Brookville (4-0) D4 R16, pick: L by 31 (2%)
10/17 H #366 Waynesville (1-3) D5 R20, pick: L by 9 (28%)
10/24 A #336 Carlisle (3-1) D5 R20, pick: L by 17 (13%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
5.00 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R16 playoffs
Playoff chances now
3% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Lose: 4.40 ( 1.20-16.40) 3% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Wyoming (3-1) 21%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 6%) 5W: 9.65 ( 7.65-13.65) 28% in, proj. out (#9-out), Wyoming (3-1) 24%
(17%) 4W: 7.15 ( 4.55-11.70) 4% in, proj. out (#9-out)
(29%) 3W: 5.00 ( 3.20- 9.45) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(34%) 2W: 3.25 ( 2.05- 7.20) out, proj. out
(13%) 1W: 2.40 ( 1.20- 4.80) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 5%) LWWLWW: 9.45 ( 7.65-12.25) 21% in, proj. out (#10-out), Wyoming (3-1) 25%
( 4%) LWWLLW: 7.20 ( 5.45-10.40) 4% in, proj. out (#11-out), Wyoming (3-1) 31%
( 8%) LWWLWL: 6.60 ( 4.55- 9.05) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Wyoming (3-1) 33%
( 5%) LWLLLW: 5.95 ( 4.30- 8.80) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Brookville (4-0) 100%
( 9%) LWLLWL: 5.00 ( 3.40- 7.85) out
(12%) LWWLLL: 4.40 ( 3.20- 7.70) out
(28%) LWLLLL: 3.25 ( 2.05- 5.90) out
(13%) LLLLLL: 2.40 ( 1.20- 4.80) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 89.1, #438, D4 #72), 3% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 3 (1-2, 94.7, #403, D4 #64), 17% (bubble if 5-5), 3% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (1-1, 101.5, #353, D4 #54), 28% (bubble if 5-5), 9% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (0-1, 98.0, #373, D4 #58), 22% (bubble if 5-5), 8% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 121.4, #200, D4 #23), 69% (bubble if 6-4), 47% home (maybe if 7-3), 21% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #7 at 7-3
Last season 120.5