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Rankings
#54 of 101 in Division 4
#13 of 26 in Region 16
Strength of schedule #33 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #37 in D4 (-25 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 21-7 H #457 Greenville (1-2) D3 R12, pick: W by 21 (83%), perf. rating 105
08/28 W 39-8 H Richmond IN (1-2) D2
09/04 L 38-6 A #113 Talawanda (3-0) D2 R8, pick: L by 29 (5%), perf. rating 90
09/11 H #260 Oakwood (3-0) D4 R16, pick: L by 13 (22%)
09/18 A #149 Valley View (1-2) D4 R16, pick: L by 28 (4%)
09/25 A #546 Madison (Middletown) (0-3) D5 R20, pick: W by 24 (94%)
10/02 H #286 Monroe (1-2) D3 R12, pick: L by 9 (28%)
10/09 H #338 Brookville (2-1) D5 R20, pick: L by 2 (45%)
10/16 A #240 Waynesville (3-0) D5 R20, pick: L by 19 (11%)
10/23 H #351 Carlisle (2-1) D5 R20, pick: L by 1 (47%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
7.70 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R16 playoffs
Playoff chances now
44% (bubble if 5-5), 19% home (maybe if 6-4), 3% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 14.35 ( 5.40-28.30) 86% in, 55% home, 13% bye, proj. #8 (#1-out), bye 16%
Lose: 8.05 ( 2.30-22.70) 32% in, 9% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#2-out), Oakwood (3-0) 11%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 9W: 24.25 (21.50-28.30) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#5), bye 99%
( 4%) 8W: 20.50 (16.20-24.40) 100% in, 99% home, 53% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#9), bye 53%
( 8%) 7W: 16.95 (12.75-22.05) 99% in, 88% home, 7% bye, proj. #7 (#2-out), Wilmington (1-2) 9%
(15%) 6W: 13.55 ( 9.20-18.65) 96% in, 39% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Clinton-Massie (0-3) 10%
(21%) 5W: 10.50 ( 6.85-16.50) 65% in, 6% home, proj. #12 (#5-out), Valley View (1-2) 12%
(25%) 4W: 7.70 ( 4.45-14.80) 14% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Valley View (1-2) 15%
(22%) 3W: 5.15 ( 2.75-10.45) 1% in, proj. out (#9-out)
( 5%) 2W: 4.70 ( 2.30- 8.30) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WWWWWWW: 24.25 (21.50-28.30) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#5), bye 99%
( 4%) LLWWWLW: 12.80 ( 9.20-17.80) 91% in, 24% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#4-out), Oakwood (3-0) 14%
( 7%) LLWLWLW: 10.35 ( 7.55-14.85) 58% in, 3% home, proj. #12 (#6-out), Oakwood (3-0) 13%
( 3%) LLWWLLW: 10.15 ( 6.95-14.30) 55% in, 2% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Clinton-Massie (0-3) 15%
( 9%) LLWLLLW: 7.60 ( 4.65-11.40) 9% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Valley View (1-2) 13%
( 8%) LLWLWLL: 7.60 ( 4.65-12.05) 11% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Valley View (1-2) 16%
(18%) LLWLLLL: 5.15 ( 2.75- 8.60) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Valley View (1-2) 43%
( 5%) LLLLLLL: 4.70 ( 2.30- 8.30) out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (2-1, 99.9, #364, D4 #54), 44% (bubble if 5-5), 19% home (maybe if 6-4), 3% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (2-0, 102.1, #346, D4 #50), 44% (bubble if 5-5), 20% home (maybe if 7-3), 5% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 1 (1-0, 100.2, #365, D4 #55), 39% (bubble if 5-5), 19% home (maybe if 6-4), 6% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 100.2, #365, D4 #54), 38% (bubble if 5-5), 17% home (maybe if 7-3), 5% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 94.1