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Rankings
#41 of 105 in Division 4
#10 of 26 in Region 16
Strength of schedule #68 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #31 in D4 (+20 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 41-22 H #557 West Carrollton (0-4) D2 R8, pick: W by 21 (83%), perf. rating 97
08/29 W 43-12 A #550 Bethel (2-2) D4 R16, pick: W by 7 (64%), perf. rating 120
09/05 W 48-6 H #483 Milton-Union (0-4) D5 R20, pick: W by 23 (90%), perf. rating 142
09/12 W 34-7 H #438 Eaton (1-3) D4 R16, pick: W by 19 (87%), perf. rating 127
09/19 A #366 Waynesville (1-3) D5 R20, pick: W by 11 (75%)
09/26 A #107 Valley View (3-1) D4 R16, pick: L by 26 (5%)
10/03 H #190 Brookville (4-0) D4 R16, pick: L by 9 (28%)
10/10 A #336 Carlisle (3-1) D5 R20, pick: W by 7 (68%)
10/17 A #96 Bellbrook (2-2) D3 R12, pick: L by 27 (4%)
10/24 H #514 Madison (Middletown) (1-3) D5 R20, pick: W by 31 (98%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
12.75 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#10 seed in R16 playoffs
Playoff chances now
74% (bubble if 6-4), 21% home (maybe if 8-2), 2% bye (maybe if 9-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 12.95 ( 6.05-27.10) 85% in, 27% home, 3% bye, proj. #10 (#1-out), Brookville (4-0) 14%
Lose: 9.20 ( 4.25-24.05) 43% in, 4% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#3-out), Wyoming (3-1) 20%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 4%) 9W: 20.55 (16.90-24.05) 100% in, 99% home, 30% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#9), bye 30%
(20%) 8W: 16.65 (13.60-21.10) 100% in, 70% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#12), Washington (2-2) 16%
(36%) 7W: 12.75 (10.50-18.70) 97% in, 6% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Wyoming (3-1) 17%
(27%) 6W: 9.60 ( 7.35-13.90) 51% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Wyoming (3-1) 26%
(11%) 5W: 7.15 ( 5.15-11.40) 8% in, proj. out (#11-out)
( 1%) 4W: 5.85 ( 4.25- 8.40) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWWWLW: 20.85 (18.85-23.10) 100% home, 44% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#8), bye 44%
(16%) WLWWLW: 16.65 (14.20-19.80) 100% in, 75% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#11), Washington (2-2) 17%
( 4%) WLWLLW: 13.25 (10.60-15.50) 99% in, 14% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Cinc. Hills Christian (3-1) 17%
(27%) WLLWLW: 12.55 (10.50-15.55) 96% in, 2% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Wyoming (3-1) 18%
( 9%) LLLWLW: 10.00 ( 7.95-13.45) 59% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Wyoming (3-1) 25%
(16%) WLLLLW: 9.25 ( 7.35-12.45) 41% in, proj. out (#9-out), Wyoming (3-1) 28%
(10%) LLLLLW: 7.05 ( 5.15-10.75) 6% in, proj. out (#11-out), Cinc. Hills Christian (3-1) 22%
( 1%) LLLLLL: 5.85 ( 4.25- 8.40) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Clinton-Massie (3-1) 100%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (4-0, 113.3, #267, D4 #41), 74% (bubble if 6-4), 21% home (maybe if 8-2), 2% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #10 at 7-3
Week 3 (3-0, 111.6, #278, D4 #45), 70% (bubble if 6-4), 27% home (likely needs 8-2), 4% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #11 at 6-4
Week 2 (2-0, 105.3, #325, D4 #48), 52% (bubble if 5-5), 19% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Week 1 (1-0, 95.7, #396, D4 #64), 29% (bubble if 5-5), 12% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye, proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 93.8, #417, D4 #72), 17% (bubble if 6-4), 7% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 89.9