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Rankings
#82 of 104 in Division 2
#20 of 23 in Region 8
Strength of schedule #79 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #91 in D2 (-692 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 34-14 H #306 Goshen (3-1) D3 R12, pick: W by 26 (88%), perf. rating 77
08/29 L 21-7 A #321 Bishop Fenwick (2-2) D4 R16, pick: L by 20 (16%), perf. rating 88
09/05 L 34-27 A #221 Wyoming (3-1) D4 R16, pick: L by 38 (2%), perf. rating 111
09/12 W 35-8 H #644 Ponitz Tech (0-4) D3 R12, pick: W by 37 (99%), perf. rating 88
09/19 A #172 Clinton-Massie (3-1) D4 R16, pick: L by 30 (3%)
09/26 H #353 Franklin (0-4) D3 R12, pick: L by 7 (33%)
10/03 H #438 Eaton (1-3) D4 R16, pick: W by 6 (65%)
10/10 A #96 Bellbrook (2-2) D3 R12, pick: L by 37 (1%)
10/17 H #309 Ross (2-2) D3 R12, pick: L by 13 (20%)
10/24 A #178 Edgewood (Trenton) (1-3) D2 R8, pick: L by 29 (3%)
Regular season projections
2-8 record
2.25 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R8 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 7.70 ( 3.35-17.85) 9% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out)
Lose: 2.60 ( 0.55-12.45) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 5W: 8.75 ( 6.60-12.10) 11% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(11%) 4W: 5.85 ( 4.35- 9.80) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(26%) 3W: 3.75 ( 2.20- 9.45) out, proj. out
(36%) 2W: 2.25 ( 1.10- 6.05) out, proj. out
(24%) 1W: 0.55 ( 0.55- 3.25) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) LWWLWW: 8.25 ( 6.60-12.10) 10% in, proj. out (#11-out), Withrow (4-0) 55%
( 8%) LWWLWL: 5.75 ( 4.40- 8.95) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Trotwood-Madison (4-0) 100%
( 8%) LLWLWL: 4.30 ( 3.30- 7.05) out
(14%) LWWLLL: 3.20 ( 2.20- 7.25) out
( 3%) LLLLWL: 2.75 ( 2.20- 4.45) out
(26%) LLWLLL: 2.55 ( 1.65- 5.20) out
( 6%) LWLLLL: 1.60 ( 1.10- 4.25) out
(24%) LLLLLL: 0.55 ( 0.55- 3.25) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 93.3, #412, D2 #82), 1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance), proj. out at 2-8
Week 3 (0-3, 95.5, #398, D2 #80), 1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance), proj. out at 2-8
Week 2 (0-2, 79.5, #504, D2 #89), 1% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance), proj. out at 1-9
Week 1 (0-1, 82.2, #496, D2 #88), 1% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance), proj. out at 2-8
Week 0 (0-0, 102.1, #342, D2 #72), 21% (bubble if 6-4), 8% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 104.0