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Rankings
#54 of 104 in Division 3
#10 of 26 in Region 12
Strength of schedule #49 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #69 in D3 (-217 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 39-6 A #404 Loveland (0-3) D2 R8, pick: L by 30 (8%), perf. rating 146
08/28 L 41-20 H #167 Bishop Fenwick (2-1) D5 R20, pick: W by 15 (77%), perf. rating 94
09/04 L 42-21 H #99 Wyoming (3-0) D4 R16, pick: L by 19 (14%), perf. rating 104
09/11 A #615 Ponitz Tech (0-3) D3 R12, pick: W by 39 (99%)
09/18 H #232 Clinton-Massie (0-3) D4 R16, pick: L by 6 (35%)
09/25 A #412 Franklin (0-3) D3 R12, pick: W by 16 (85%)
10/02 A #364 Eaton (2-1) D4 R16, pick: W by 9 (72%)
10/09 H #55 Bellbrook (3-0) D3 R12, pick: L by 32 (2%)
10/16 A #332 Ross (1-2) D2 R8, pick: W by 4 (60%)
10/23 H #189 Edgewood (Trenton) (1-2) D2 R8, pick: L by 10 (26%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
8.05 Harbin points (divisor 99)
#12 seed in R12 playoffs
Playoff chances now
42% (bubble if 5-5), 3% home (likely needs 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 7.80 ( 1.15-23.24) 42% in, 3% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Indian Hill (2-1) 22%
Lose: 4.12 ( 0.60-14.97) 14% in, proj. out (#9-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 8W: 18.67 (15.06-23.24) 100% in, 85% home, 2% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#11), Northwest (Cincy) (3-0) 25%
(12%) 7W: 13.75 ( 9.51-20.26) 97% in, 15% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Goshen (3-0) 19%
(21%) 6W: 10.72 ( 6.88-16.38) 79% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#6-out), Indian Hill (2-1) 25%
(25%) 5W: 8.05 ( 4.82-14.06) 41% in, proj. out (#9-out), Indian Hill (2-1) 27%
(21%) 4W: 5.68 ( 3.26-11.59) 9% in, proj. out (#10-out), Indian Hill (2-1) 32%
(14%) 3W: 3.59 ( 1.70- 8.42) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
( 6%) 2W: 2.36 ( 1.15- 4.94) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WWWWWWW: 18.67 (15.06-23.24) 100% in, 85% home, 2% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#11), Northwest (Cincy) (3-0) 25%
(11%) WWWWLWW: 13.60 ( 9.51-17.74) 97% in, 12% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Goshen (3-0) 20%
( 7%) WLWWLWW: 10.67 ( 7.54-14.31) 79% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Indian Hill (2-1) 26%
( 9%) WWWWLWL: 10.47 ( 7.09-15.72) 76% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Indian Hill (2-1) 26%
(11%) WLWWLWL: 7.65 ( 5.12-11.59) 34% in, proj. out (#9-out), Indian Hill (2-1) 27%
( 8%) WLWWLLL: 5.63 ( 3.36- 9.47) 10% in, proj. out (#11-out), Indian Hill (2-1) 34%
( 8%) WLWLLLL: 3.22 ( 1.70- 7.36) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Unioto (2-1) 33%
( 6%) WLLLLLL: 2.36 ( 1.15- 4.94) out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (1-2, 111.2, #286, D3 #54), 42% (bubble if 5-5), 3% home (likely needs 8-2), proj. #12 at 5-5
Week 2 (1-1, 113.4, #267, D3 #48), 52% (bubble if 5-5), 11% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #12 at 5-5
Week 1 (1-0, 128.7, #159, D3 #22), 83% (bubble if 5-5), 53% home (maybe if 7-3), 20% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #7 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 99.8, #370, D3 #69), 27% (bubble if 5-5), 11% home (maybe if 7-3), 3% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 99.0