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Rankings
#23 of 105 in Division 4
#5 of 26 in Region 16
Strength of schedule #86 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #27 in D4 (+40 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 49-16 H #636 Tri-County North (0-4) D7 R28, pick: W by 43 (98%), perf. rating 101
08/29 W 49-7 A #551 Shawnee (Springfield) (0-4) D4 R16, pick: W by 32 (95%), perf. rating 136
09/05 W 42-15 H #460 Northridge (0-3) D5 R20, pick: W by 32 (96%), perf. rating 123
09/12 W 35-7 H #366 Waynesville (1-3) D5 R20, pick: W by 17 (84%), perf. rating 140
09/19 A #514 Madison (Middletown) (1-3) D5 R20, pick: W by 34 (98%)
09/26 H #336 Carlisle (3-1) D5 R20, pick: W by 22 (92%)
10/03 A #267 Oakwood (4-0) D4 R16, pick: W by 9 (72%)
10/10 H #438 Eaton (1-3) D4 R16, pick: W by 31 (98%)
10/17 A #107 Valley View (3-1) D4 R16, pick: L by 17 (13%)
10/24 A #353 Franklin (0-4) D3 R12, pick: W by 20 (91%)
Regular season projections
9-1 record
17.89 Harbin points (divisor 99)
#6 seed in R16 playoffs
Playoff chances now
97% (bubble if 6-4), 63% home (maybe if 8-2), 11% bye (likely needs 10-0)
Depending on the next game
Win: 17.23 ( 4.78-25.66) 97% in, 64% home, 11% bye, proj. #8 (#1-out), Kenton Ridge (3-1) 13%
Lose: 13.20 ( 5.29-22.73) 79% in, 22% home, 2% bye, proj. #10 (#3-out), Cinc. Hills Christian (3-1) 19%
Based on eventual number of wins
(13%) 10W: 22.23 (19.30-25.66) 100% home, 80% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#8), bye 80%
(47%) 9W: 17.89 (14.60-23.39) 100% in, 89% home, 2% bye, proj. #7 (#2-#11), Washington (2-2) 17%
(27%) 8W: 14.46 (11.12-20.01) 99% in, 31% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Kenton Ridge (3-1) 14%
(10%) 7W: 12.09 ( 7.34-16.48) 85% in, 5% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Wyoming (3-1) 20%
( 2%) 6W: 9.57 ( 6.34-13.10) 46% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Cinc. Hills Christian (3-1) 26%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(13%) WWWWWW: 22.23 (19.30-25.66) 100% home, 80% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#8), bye 80%
(43%) WWWWLW: 17.84 (14.60-21.37) 100% in, 89% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#11), Washington (2-2) 17%
( 6%) WWWWLL: 16.38 (13.85-19.00) 100% in, 72% home, proj. #8 (#5-#12), Kenton Ridge (3-1) 19%
(16%) WWLWLW: 13.95 (11.12-17.39) 99% in, 12% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Oakwood (4-0) 18%
( 4%) WLWWLW: 13.85 (11.53-17.08) 100% in, 30% home, proj. #9 (#5-#12), Kenton Ridge (3-1) 20%
( 5%) WWLWLL: 12.44 (10.17-14.87) 96% in, 3% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Wyoming (3-1) 20%
( 3%) WLLWLW: 10.12 ( 7.34-13.20) 58% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Wyoming (3-1) 29%
( 1%) WLLWLL: 9.19 ( 7.30-11.54) 39% in, proj. out (#9-out), Cinc. Hills Christian (3-1) 28%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (4-0, 124.5, #190, D4 #23), 97% (bubble if 6-4), 63% home (maybe if 8-2), 11% bye (likely needs 10-0), proj. #6 at 9-1
Week 3 (3-0, 118.7, #228, D4 #33), 85% (bubble if 6-4), 51% home (maybe if 8-2), 9% bye (likely needs 10-0), proj. #9 at 8-2
Week 2 (2-0, 117.7, #241, D4 #31), 80% (bubble if 6-4), 49% home (maybe if 7-3), 8% bye (likely needs 10-0), proj. #7 at 7-3
Week 1 (1-0, 115.3, #248, D4 #33), 75% (bubble if 5-5), 50% home (maybe if 7-3), 16% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #7 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 118.7, #220, D4 #27), 70% (bubble if 5-5), 50% home (maybe if 7-3), 25% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #6 at 7-3
Last season 114.2