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Rankings
#38 of 105 in Division 5
#6 of 26 in Region 20
Strength of schedule #42 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #62 in D5 (-253 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 27-14 A #427 Parkway (1-2) D6 R22, pick: W by 35 (95%), perf. rating 73
08/28 W 38-6 H #545 Shawnee (Springfield) (1-2) D4 R16, pick: W by 23 (88%), perf. rating 119
09/04 W 35-8 A #525 Northridge (0-3) D4 R16, pick: W by 21 (88%), perf. rating 118
09/11 A #240 Waynesville (3-0) D5 R20, pick: L by 15 (19%)
09/18 H #546 Madison (Middletown) (0-3) D5 R20, pick: W by 29 (97%)
09/25 A #351 Carlisle (2-1) D5 R20, pick: L by 1 (47%)
10/02 H #260 Oakwood (3-0) D4 R16, pick: L by 8 (30%)
10/09 A #364 Eaton (2-1) D4 R16, pick: W by 2 (55%)
10/16 H #149 Valley View (1-2) D4 R16, pick: L by 23 (7%)
10/23 H #412 Franklin (0-3) D3 R12, pick: W by 13 (80%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
7.55 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R20 playoffs
Playoff chances now
49% (bubble if 5-5), 30% home (maybe if 6-4), 11% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 14.55 ( 4.80-24.65) 91% in, 76% home, 45% bye, proj. #5 (#1-out), bye 49%
Lose: 7.50 ( 1.55-20.75) 39% in, 20% home, 4% bye, proj. out (#1-out), bye 9%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 9W: 21.15 (18.80-24.65) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
( 8%) 8W: 17.35 (13.90-22.00) 100% home, 79% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#8), bye 79%
(15%) 7W: 13.60 (10.45-18.65) 100% in, 92% home, 17% bye, proj. #6 (#1-#12), bye 17%
(20%) 6W: 10.35 ( 7.05-15.95) 86% in, 27% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#3-out), Williamsburg (2-1) 11%
(23%) 5W: 7.55 ( 4.50-13.60) 24% in, 2% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Williamsburg (2-1) 13%
(19%) 4W: 5.40 ( 2.55-11.90) 2% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out)
(11%) 3W: 3.85 ( 2.00- 8.10) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
( 2%) 2W: 3.30 ( 1.55- 5.00) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWWWWWW: 21.15 (18.80-24.65) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
( 7%) LWWWWLW: 13.45 (10.95-17.25) 100% in, 92% home, 11% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#12), bye 11%
( 7%) LWWLWLW: 9.85 ( 7.45-13.75) 81% in, 16% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#3-out), Williamsburg (2-1) 11%
( 5%) LWWLLLW: 7.20 ( 5.00-10.20) 15% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Greeneview (2-1) 15%
( 8%) LWLLWLW: 6.90 ( 4.65- 9.90) 7% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Williamsburg (2-1) 17%
(10%) LWLLLLW: 4.62 ( 2.55- 7.40) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Summit Country Day (1-1) 100%
( 9%) LWLLLLL: 3.75 ( 2.00- 6.95) out
( 2%) LLLLLLL: 3.30 ( 1.55- 5.00) out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (2-1, 104.3, #338, D5 #38), 49% (bubble if 5-5), 30% home (maybe if 6-4), 11% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 2 (1-1, 101.9, #349, D5 #42), 42% (bubble if 5-5), 25% home (maybe if 6-4), 9% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 1 (0-1, 99.4, #370, D5 #47), 43% (bubble if 5-5), 27% home (maybe if 6-4), 12% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 121.6, #199, D5 #20), 84% (bubble if 5-5), 70% home (maybe if 6-4), 47% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #1 at 8-2
Last season 124.7