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Rankings
#37 of 107 in Division 3
#8 of 26 in Region 12
Strength of schedule #98 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #28 in D3 (+32 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 51-21 H #357 Taylor (2-2) D4 R16, pick: L by 18 (20%), perf. rating 145
08/28 W 42-6 A #531 Meadowdale (1-3) D4 R16, pick: W by 30 (93%), perf. rating 131
09/05 W 45-20 A #438 Eaton (1-3) D4 R16, pick: W by 22 (89%), perf. rating 128
09/12 W 35-10 H #353 Franklin (0-4) D3 R12, pick: W by 24 (92%), perf. rating 138
09/19 A #582 Carroll (1-3) D3 R12, pick: W by 42 (99%)
09/26 H #309 Ross (2-2) D3 R12, pick: W by 21 (91%)
10/03 H #383 Northwest (Cincy) (1-3) D2 R8, pick: W by 27 (96%)
10/10 H #50 Harrison (3-1) D2 R8, pick: L by 21 (8%)
10/17 H #408 Mount Healthy (0-4) D2 R8, pick: W by 30 (98%)
10/24 A #567 Blanchester (1-3) D6 R24, pick: W by 40 (99%)
Regular season projections
9-1 record
18.10 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#7 seed in R12 playoffs
Playoff chances now
98% (bubble if 7-3), 63% home (maybe if 9-1), 5% bye (maybe if 10-0)
Depending on the next game
Win: 18.00 ( 8.15-27.45) 98% in, 64% home, 5% bye, proj. #8 (#2-out), Bellbrook (2-2) 15%
Lose: 16.30 ( 9.35-24.30) 90% in, 35% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#3-out), Archbishop McNicholas (2-2) 13%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 9%) 10W: 23.05 (18.55-27.45) 100% home, 48% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#8), bye 48%
(74%) 9W: 18.10 (13.40-24.45) 99% in, 69% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Bellbrook (2-2) 16%
(15%) 8W: 15.80 (11.65-20.40) 95% in, 25% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Bellbrook (2-2) 16%
( 2%) 7W: 13.70 ( 9.65-17.50) 71% in, 5% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Archbishop Alter (2-2) 14%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 9%) WWWWWW: 23.05 (18.55-27.45) 100% home, 48% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#8), bye 48%
(72%) WWWLWW: 18.05 (13.40-23.45) 99% in, 68% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), Bellbrook (2-2) 16%
( 3%) WWWLLW: 17.05 (12.85-20.30) 99% in, 46% home, proj. #9 (#6-out), Bellbrook (2-2) 17%
( 7%) WLWLWW: 15.55 (12.00-19.30) 92% in, 17% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Bellbrook (2-2) 15%
( 3%) WWLLWW: 15.43 (11.65-19.30) 96% in, 17% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Bellbrook (2-2) 20%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (4-0, 127.5, #171, D3 #37), 98% (bubble if 7-3), 63% home (maybe if 9-1), 5% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. #7 at 9-1
Week 3 (3-0, 129.4, #162, D3 #35), likely in, 80% home (maybe if 8-2), 15% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. #7 at 9-1
Week 2 (2-0, 126.0, #175, D3 #35), 91% (bubble if 6-4), 64% home (maybe if 8-2), 11% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. #8 at 8-2
Week 1 (1-0, 122.6, #194, D3 #38), 84% (bubble if 6-4), 53% home (maybe if 8-2), 12% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. #9 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 101.4, #345, D3 #71), 33% (bubble if 5-5), 14% home (maybe if 7-3), 3% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 105.0