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Rankings
#38 of 106 in Division 5
#6 of 25 in Region 20
Strength of schedule #45 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #25 in D5 (+65 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 42-6 H #625 National Trail (0-4) D6 R24, pick: W by 27 (89%), perf. rating 107
08/29 W 25-18 H #373 Miami East (3-1) D5 R20, pick: W by 18 (82%), perf. rating 108
09/05 W 43-19 H #550 Bethel (2-2) D4 R16, pick: W by 24 (91%), perf. rating 106
09/12 L 35-14 H #107 Valley View (3-1) D4 R16, pick: L by 26 (6%), perf. rating 106
09/19 A #353 Franklin (0-4) D3 R12, pick: L by 1 (48%)
09/26 A #190 Brookville (4-0) D4 R16, pick: L by 22 (8%)
10/03 A #366 Waynesville (1-3) D5 R20, pick: W by 2 (55%)
10/10 H #267 Oakwood (4-0) D4 R16, pick: L by 7 (32%)
10/17 A #514 Madison (Middletown) (1-3) D5 R20, pick: W by 23 (93%)
10/24 H #438 Eaton (1-3) D4 R16, pick: W by 17 (87%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
11.75 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#9 seed in R20 playoffs
Playoff chances now
83% (bubble if 5-5), 51% home (maybe if 6-4), 11% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 13.70 ( 6.40-23.60) 94% in, 69% home, 19% bye, proj. #7 (#1-out), bye 20%
Lose: 10.65 ( 5.05-21.60) 73% in, 34% home, 4% bye, proj. #10 (#1-out), Purcell Marian (2-2) 12%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 4%) 9W: 20.65 (17.90-23.60) 100% home, 98% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#5), bye 98%
(15%) 8W: 16.70 (13.45-22.05) 100% in, 99% home, 41% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#9), bye 41%
(23%) 7W: 13.95 ( 9.75-18.95) 100% in, 87% home, 5% bye, proj. #7 (#1-#12), Greeneview (2-2) 13%
(26%) 6W: 11.75 ( 8.00-16.80) 96% in, 42% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Purcell Marian (2-2) 15%
(21%) 5W: 9.70 ( 6.55-13.75) 70% in, 6% home, proj. #11 (#5-out), Miami East (3-1) 15%
(10%) 4W: 7.95 ( 5.50-12.20) 23% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Miami East (3-1) 22%
( 2%) 3W: 7.00 ( 5.05- 8.95) 4% in, proj. out (#11-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 4%) WWWWWW: 20.65 (17.90-23.60) 100% home, 98% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#5), bye 98%
(11%) WLWWWW: 16.45 (13.45-19.65) 100% in, 99% home, 35% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#9), bye 35%
(11%) WLWLWW: 12.95 ( 9.75-16.10) 100% in, 80% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#12), Purcell Marian (2-2) 16%
(10%) LLWLWW: 11.80 ( 9.30-15.00) 99% in, 49% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Greeneview (2-2) 16%
( 7%) WLLLWW: 10.80 ( 8.00-13.70) 87% in, 14% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Waynesville (1-3) 15%
(12%) LLLLWW: 9.62 ( 7.45-12.40) 67% in, 3% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Miami East (3-1) 16%
( 6%) LLLLWL: 7.85 ( 5.50- 9.95) 17% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Miami East (3-1) 23%
( 2%) LLLLLL: 7.00 ( 5.05- 8.95) 4% in, proj. out (#11-out), Graham Local (4-0) 22%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 104.3, #336, D5 #38), 83% (bubble if 5-5), 51% home (maybe if 6-4), 11% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #9 at 6-4
Week 3 (3-0, 108.1, #302, D5 #30), 92% (bubble if 4-6), 68% home (maybe if 5-5), 32% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #7 at 6-4
Week 2 (2-0, 100.3, #362, D5 #44), 71% (bubble if 4-6), 37% home (maybe if 6-4), 9% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #8 at 5-5
Week 1 (1-0, 102.8, #341, D5 #42), 64% (bubble if 5-5), 40% home (maybe if 6-4), 17% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 97.9, #375, D5 #45), 49% (bubble if 5-5), 28% home (maybe if 6-4), 13% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #11 at 5-5
Last season 99.8