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Rankings
#11 of 105 in Division 4
#3 of 26 in Region 16
Strength of schedule #25 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #16 in D4 (+260 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 49-48 H #150 Coldwater (2-2) D6 R24, pick: L by 25 (13%), perf. rating 128
08/29 W 20-7 A #353 Franklin (0-4) D3 R12, pick: W by 29 (93%), perf. rating 124
09/05 W 31-14 H #96 Bellbrook (2-2) D3 R12, pick: L by 9 (31%), perf. rating 165
09/12 W 35-14 A #336 Carlisle (3-1) D5 R20, pick: W by 26 (94%), perf. rating 138
09/19 A #438 Eaton (1-3) D4 R16, pick: W by 36 (99%)
09/26 H #267 Oakwood (4-0) D4 R16, pick: W by 26 (95%)
10/03 H #514 Madison (Middletown) (1-3) D5 R20, pick: W by 43 (99%)
10/10 A #178 Edgewood (Trenton) (1-3) D2 R8, pick: W by 11 (77%)
10/17 H #190 Brookville (4-0) D4 R16, pick: W by 17 (87%)
10/24 A #366 Waynesville (1-3) D5 R20, pick: W by 30 (98%)
Regular season projections
9-1 record
26.00 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#3 seed in R16 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 98% home (maybe if 6-4), 82% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 25.35 (11.10-27.80) 99% in, 98% home, 82% bye, proj. #3 (#1-out), bye 82%
Based on eventual number of wins
(60%) 9W: 26.00 (23.10-27.80) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#5), bye 99%
(29%) 8W: 22.45 (19.10-26.75) 100% in, 99% home, 75% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#9), bye 75%
( 9%) 7W: 18.40 (15.95-23.35) 100% in, 93% home, 8% bye, proj. #7 (#2-#11), Washington (2-2) 15%
( 2%) 6W: 15.30 (12.35-19.35) 100% in, 41% home, proj. #9 (#5-#12), Kenton Ridge (3-1) 14%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(60%) WWWWWW: 26.00 (23.10-27.80) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#5), bye 99%
( 2%) WWWWWL: 23.70 (21.50-25.40) 100% home, 92% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 92%
(16%) WWWLWW: 22.65 (20.30-24.85) 100% home, 90% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 90%
( 2%) WLWWWW: 21.95 (19.15-24.20) 100% home, 65% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#8), bye 65%
( 8%) WWWWLW: 21.35 (19.10-23.85) 100% in, 99% home, 43% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#9), bye 43%
( 1%) WLWLWW: 18.55 (15.95-21.40) 100% in, 93% home, 6% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#10), Kenton Ridge (3-1) 18%
( 5%) WWWLLW: 18.30 (16.10-21.25) 100% in, 92% home, 2% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#11), Washington (2-2) 16%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 139.5, #107, D4 #11), likely in, 98% home (maybe if 6-4), 82% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #3 at 9-1
Week 3 (2-1, 139.7, #100, D4 #11), likely in, 96% home (maybe if 6-4), 80% bye (likely needs 8-2), proj. #2 at 9-1
Week 2 (1-1, 136.7, #118, D4 #13), 96% (bubble if 4-6), 84% home (maybe if 6-4), 44% bye (likely needs 8-2), proj. #5 at 7-3
Week 1 (0-1, 142.1, #89, D4 #9), 95% (bubble if 4-6), 86% home (maybe if 6-4), 61% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #3 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 133.5, #134, D4 #12), 74% (bubble if 5-5), 59% home (maybe if 6-4), 36% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #4 at 7-3
Last season 128.6