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Rankings
#14 of 101 in Division 4
#3 of 26 in Region 16
Strength of schedule #24 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #35 in D4 (+15 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 37-21 A #59 Coldwater (2-0) D5 R18, pick: L by 16 (23%), perf. rating 126
08/28 W 37-0 H #406 Franklin (0-2) D3 R12, pick: W by 30 (93%), perf. rating 147
09/04 A #58 Bellbrook (2-0) D3 R12, pick: L by 18 (16%)
09/11 H #311 Carlisle (1-1) D5 R20, pick: W by 26 (94%)
09/18 H #346 Eaton (2-0) D4 R16, pick: W by 29 (97%)
09/25 A #309 Oakwood (2-0) D4 R16, pick: W by 23 (93%)
10/02 A #538 Madison (Middletown) (0-2) D5 R20, pick: W by 41 (99%)
10/09 H #196 Edgewood (Trenton) (1-1) D2 R8, pick: W by 13 (80%)
10/16 A #349 Brookville (1-1) D5 R20, pick: W by 27 (96%)
10/23 H #230 Waynesville (2-0) D5 R20, pick: W by 17 (87%)
Regular season projections
8-2 record
5.76 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#4 seed in R16 playoffs
Playoff chances now
94% (bubble if 5-5), 82% home (maybe if 6-4), 37% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 6.70 ( 3.35- 7.08) 99% in, 98% home, 87% bye, proj. #2 (#1-out), bye 87%
Lose: 5.00 ( 1.00- 6.06) 93% in, 80% home, 28% bye, proj. #6 (#1-out), bye 30%
Based on eventual number of wins
(11%) 9W: 6.76 ( 6.50- 7.08) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#5), bye 99%
(41%) 8W: 5.76 ( 5.48- 6.37) 100% home, 60% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 60%
(27%) 7W: 4.91 ( 4.60- 5.55) 100% in, 95% home, 5% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#12), Taft (0-2) 9%
(13%) 6W: 4.08 ( 3.80- 4.68) 99% in, 38% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Urbana (2-0) 10%
( 5%) 5W: 3.30 ( 3.06- 3.78) 51% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), London (1-1) 14%
( 2%) 4W: 2.53 ( 2.31- 2.94) 2% in, proj. out (#12-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(11%) WWWWWWWW: 6.76 ( 6.50- 7.08) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#5), bye 99%
(38%) LWWWWWWW: 5.76 ( 5.49- 6.07) 100% home, 59% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 59%
( 4%) LWWLWWWW: 4.91 ( 4.59- 5.28) 100% in, 89% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#12), Dunbar (1-0) 11%
( 7%) LWWWWWWL: 4.89 ( 4.62- 5.21) 100% in, 96% home, 6% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), Taylor (1-1) 10%
(10%) LWWWWLWW: 4.88 ( 4.70- 5.09) 100% in, 94% home, 5% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#11), Taylor (1-1) 10%
( 4%) LWWWWLWL: 4.04 ( 3.86- 4.28) 100% in, 36% home, proj. #9 (#5-#12), Dunbar (1-0) 10%
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (1-1, 133.8, #130, D4 #14), 94% (bubble if 5-5), 83% home (maybe if 6-4), 46% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #3 at 8-2
Week 1 (0-1, 131.9, #139, D4 #13), 88% (bubble if 5-5), 74% home (maybe if 6-4), 44% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #5 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 134.5, #126, D4 #11), 84% (bubble if 5-5), 70% home (maybe if 6-4), 44% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #2 at 8-2
Last season 137.1