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Region 12 playoff probabilities
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Rankings
#85 of 104 in Division 3
#20 of 26 in Region 12
Strength of schedule #47 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #90 in D3 (0 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 A #365 Eaton (0-0) D4 R16, pick: L by 21 (17%)
08/28 A #563 West Carrollton (0-0) D3 R12, pick: W by 10 (69%)
09/04 H #260 Piqua (0-0) D2 R8, pick: L by 26 (7%)
09/11 A #377 Fairborn (0-0) D2 R8, pick: L by 19 (13%)
09/18 H #320 Stebbins (0-0) D2 R8, pick: L by 21 (9%)
09/25 A #207 Butler (0-0) D2 R8, pick: L by 32 (2%)
10/02 H #463 Sidney (0-0) D2 R8, pick: L by 3 (42%)
10/09 H #34 Tippecanoe (0-0) D3 R12, pick: L by 47 (1%)
10/16 A #93 Xenia (0-0) D2 R8, pick: L by 42 (1%)
10/23 H #106 Troy (0-0) D2 R8, pick: L by 39 (1%)
Regular season projections
2-8 record
2.35 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R12 playoffs
Playoff chances now
12% (bubble if 5-5), 4% home (maybe if 6-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 6.70 ( 0.50-33.55) 31% in, 12% home, 3% bye, proj. out (#1-out), bye 10%
Lose: 1.75 ( 0.00-29.20) 8% in, 2% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#1-out), Unioto (0-0) 10%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 8W: 21.55 (17.55-26.95) 100% in, 99% home, 50% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#9), bye 50%
( 2%) 7W: 17.38 (13.70-23.55) 99% in, 76% home, 8% bye, proj. #7 (#2-out), bye 9%
( 3%) 6W: 13.70 ( 9.80-20.35) 93% in, 32% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Miami Trace (0-0) 8%
( 6%) 5W: 10.45 ( 6.35-19.05) 59% in, 6% home, proj. #12 (#5-out), Unioto (0-0) 11%
(10%) 4W: 7.45 ( 3.95-15.25) 20% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), Unioto (0-0) 12%
(15%) 3W: 4.65 ( 2.20-11.75) 2% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out)
(22%) 2W: 2.35 ( 1.05-10.75) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(24%) 1W: 0.60 ( 0.50- 5.95) out, proj. out
(17%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Most likely first round opponents
Unioto (0-0) 9%
Bellbrook (0-0) 8%
Goshen (0-0) 8%
Miami Trace (0-0) 7%
Most likely second round opponents
Tippecanoe (0-0) 22%
Indian Hill (0-0) 17%
Unioto (0-0) 9%
Archbishop McNicholas (0-0) 9%
Archbishop Alter (0-0) 8%
Weekly summary info
Week 0 (0-0, 100.7, #362, D3 #68), 69% (bubble if 5-5), 42% home (maybe if 7-3), 12% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #8 at 6-4
Last season 88.0