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Rankings
#86 of 107 in Division 3
#21 of 26 in Region 12
Strength of schedule #44 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #79 in D3 (-430 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 24-14 H #438 Eaton (1-3) D4 R16, pick: L by 39 (4%), perf. rating 102
08/29 W 30-0 H #557 West Carrollton (0-4) D2 R8, pick: W by 18 (82%), perf. rating 113
09/05 L 50-7 A #261 Piqua (1-3) D2 R8, pick: L by 14 (22%), perf. rating 54
09/12 L 42-18 H #287 Fairborn (3-1) D2 R8, pick: L by 20 (12%), perf. rating 73
09/19 A #290 Stebbins (2-2) D2 R8, pick: L by 27 (5%)
09/26 H #228 Butler (3-1) D2 R8, pick: L by 30 (3%)
10/03 A #494 Sidney (0-4) D2 R8, pick: L by 1 (47%)
10/10 A #30 Tippecanoe (4-0) D3 R12, pick: L by 49 (1%)
10/17 H #122 Xenia (3-1) D2 R8, pick: L by 39 (1%)
10/24 A #105 Troy (3-1) D1 R2, pick: L by 42 (1%)
Regular season projections
2-8 record
2.60 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R12 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 6.30 ( 4.05-17.15) 1% in, proj. out (#9-out)
Lose: 3.35 ( 1.70-15.20) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 6%) 4W: 6.90 ( 5.25-11.60) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(43%) 3W: 3.95 ( 2.90-10.10) out, proj. out
(50%) 2W: 2.60 ( 1.70- 5.35) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) LWWLLL: 6.90 ( 5.85- 9.50) out
( 3%) WLWLLL: 6.30 ( 5.25- 9.00) out
( 1%) WLLLLL: 5.10 ( 4.05- 7.80) out
(39%) LLWLLL: 3.80 ( 2.90- 6.10) out
(50%) LLLLLL: 2.60 ( 1.70- 5.35) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 81.0, #486, D3 #86), 1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance), proj. out at 2-8
Week 3 (2-1, 84.9, #463, D3 #83), 1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance), proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (2-0, 95.5, #402, D3 #76), 11% (bubble if 6-4), 4% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (1-0, 88.7, #449, D3 #84), 10% (bubble if 6-4), 4% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 65.3, #584, D3 #100), 2% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 1-9
Last season 63.7