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Rankings
#76 of 106 in Division 5
#21 of 25 in Region 20
Strength of schedule #31 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #87 in D5 (-528 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 35-18 H #231 Preble Shawnee (4-0) D5 R20, pick: L by 17 (22%), perf. rating 90
08/29 L 27-6 A #441 Madeira (2-2) D5 R20, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 58
09/05 W 32-15 A #567 Blanchester (1-3) D6 R24, pick: W by 3 (57%), perf. rating 96
09/12 L 39-28 H #518 Dayton Christian (3-1) D6 R24, pick: W by 19 (87%), perf. rating 59
09/19 H #190 Brookville (4-0) D4 R16, pick: L by 34 (2%)
09/26 A #438 Eaton (1-3) D4 R16, pick: L by 13 (20%)
10/03 A #107 Valley View (3-1) D4 R16, pick: L by 43 (1%)
10/10 H #366 Waynesville (1-3) D5 R20, pick: L by 20 (9%)
10/17 H #336 Carlisle (3-1) D5 R20, pick: L by 23 (7%)
10/24 A #267 Oakwood (4-0) D4 R16, pick: L by 31 (2%)
Regular season projections
1-9 record
1.60 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R20 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 6.43 ( 3.90-15.95) 22% in, 7% home, proj. out (#5-out)
Lose: 2.10 ( 0.75-15.40) 1% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 4W: 8.25 ( 6.35-12.95) 27% in, 2% home, proj. out (#7-out)
( 9%) 3W: 5.55 ( 3.60- 9.35) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(26%) 2W: 3.40 ( 1.85- 6.85) out, proj. out
(63%) 1W: 1.60 ( 0.75- 3.20) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) LWLWWL: 7.75 ( 6.35-10.40) 11% in, proj. out (#10-out), Carlisle (3-1) 27%
( 1%) LLLWWL: 6.15 ( 4.30- 7.70) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Carlisle (3-1) 100%
( 2%) LWLLWL: 5.60 ( 4.15- 7.60) out
( 3%) LWLWLL: 4.95 ( 3.60- 6.45) out
( 4%) LLLLWL: 3.95 ( 2.95- 6.40) out
( 6%) LLLWLL: 3.40 ( 2.05- 5.40) out
(12%) LWLLLL: 3.20 ( 1.85- 5.20) out
(63%) LLLLLL: 1.60 ( 0.75- 3.20) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 77.9, #514, D5 #76), 1% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance), proj. out at 1-9
Week 3 (1-2, 86.5, #453, D5 #64), 18% (bubble if 4-6), 5% home (maybe if 5-5), proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (0-2, 84.8, #466, D5 #65), 15% (bubble if 4-6), 4% home (maybe if 5-5), proj. out at 2-8
Week 1 (0-1, 90.8, #433, D5 #60), 26% (bubble if 5-5), 12% home (maybe if 6-4), 3% bye, proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 93.4, #421, D5 #55), 35% (bubble if 5-5), 20% home (maybe if 6-4), 8% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 94.8