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Rankings
#43 of 106 in Division 5
#8 of 25 in Region 20
Strength of schedule #16 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #49 in D5 (-113 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 35-13 A #172 Clinton-Massie (3-1) D4 R16, pick: L by 17 (22%), perf. rating 97
08/29 W 21-0 H #396 Greeneview (2-2) D5 R20, pick: W by 7 (64%), perf. rating 125
09/05 L 34-6 A #306 Goshen (3-1) D3 R12, pick: W by 33 (97%), perf. rating 69
09/12 L 35-7 A #190 Brookville (4-0) D4 R16, pick: L by 17 (16%), perf. rating 85
09/19 H #267 Oakwood (4-0) D4 R16, pick: L by 11 (25%)
09/26 H #518 Dayton Christian (3-1) D6 R24, pick: W by 24 (94%)
10/03 H #336 Carlisle (3-1) D5 R20, pick: L by 2 (45%)
10/10 A #514 Madison (Middletown) (1-3) D5 R20, pick: W by 20 (91%)
10/17 A #438 Eaton (1-3) D4 R16, pick: W by 9 (72%)
10/24 H #107 Valley View (3-1) D4 R16, pick: L by 30 (2%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
9.40 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#10 seed in R20 playoffs
Playoff chances now
65% (bubble if 4-6), 31% home (maybe if 5-5), 4% bye (likely needs 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 14.55 ( 4.90-22.10) 96% in, 73% home, 13% bye, proj. #7 (#1-out), bye 14%
Lose: 9.15 ( 1.60-18.00) 54% in, 17% home, 1% bye, proj. #12 (#3-out), Greeneview (2-2) 13%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 7W: 19.88 (17.90-22.10) 100% home, 95% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 95%
(13%) 6W: 15.70 (13.10-19.40) 100% in, 99% home, 19% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#9), bye 19%
(29%) 5W: 12.25 ( 9.15-16.35) 99% in, 55% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), Purcell Marian (2-2) 15%
(31%) 4W: 9.40 ( 6.95-13.75) 64% in, 3% home, proj. #12 (#5-out), Miami East (3-1) 17%
(19%) 3W: 7.45 ( 4.00-11.20) 11% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Miami East (3-1) 22%
( 6%) 2W: 5.93 ( 2.80- 7.75) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
( 1%) 1W: 3.15 ( 1.60- 3.55) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WWWWWW: 19.88 (17.90-22.10) 100% home, 95% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 95%
(12%) WWWWWL: 15.60 (13.10-18.25) 100% in, 99% home, 18% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#9), bye 18%
( 6%) WWLWWL: 12.38 (10.00-14.25) 99% in, 45% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Purcell Marian (2-2) 16%
(19%) LWWWWL: 12.05 ( 9.15-15.25) 99% in, 52% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), Greeneview (2-2) 16%
( 6%) LWWWLL: 10.15 ( 7.70-12.70) 91% in, 5% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Miami East (3-1) 15%
(20%) LWLWWL: 9.10 ( 6.95-11.00) 51% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Miami East (3-1) 20%
(13%) LWLWLL: 7.45 ( 5.40- 8.85) 7% in, proj. out (#10-out), Miami East (3-1) 25%
( 1%) LLLLLL: 3.15 ( 1.60- 3.55) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 100.5, #366, D5 #43), 65% (bubble if 4-6), 31% home (maybe if 5-5), 4% bye (likely needs 7-3), proj. #10 at 4-6
Week 3 (1-2, 103.6, #354, D5 #41), 66% (bubble if 4-6), 36% home (maybe if 5-5), 11% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. #12 at 4-6
Week 2 (1-1, 132.4, #137, D5 #13), likely in, 97% home (maybe if 5-5), 86% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. #1 at 8-2
Week 1 (0-1, 124.0, #181, D5 #17), 88% (bubble if 4-6), 77% home (maybe if 5-5), 56% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #1 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 128.5, #163, D5 #17), 87% (bubble if 4-6), 75% home (maybe if 6-4), 55% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #3 at 7-3
Last season 126.2