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Rankings
#37 of 106 in Division 5
#6 of 26 in Region 20
Strength of schedule #41 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #34 in D5 (-6 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 20-17 H #327 Clinton-Massie (2-6) D4 R16, pick: L by 27 (11%), perf. rating 108
08/28 W 28-14 A #465 Greeneview (5-3) D5 R20, pick: W by 17 (80%), perf. rating 108
09/04 W 52-13 H #554 Hillsboro (0-8) D3 R12, pick: W by 37 (98%), perf. rating 126
09/11 W 31-0 H #404 Brookville (4-4) D5 R20, pick: W by 15 (81%), perf. rating 138
09/18 L 56-28 A #162 Oakwood (7-1) D4 R16, pick: L by 2 (44%), perf. rating 88
09/25 W 42-14 A #434 Dayton Christian (5-3) D5 R20, pick: W by 16 (85%), perf. rating 133
10/02 L 38-13 A #315 Carlisle (4-4) D5 R20, pick: W by 8 (70%), perf. rating 73
10/09 W 45-7 H #590 Madison (Middletown) (0-8) D5 R20, pick: W by 34 (99%), perf. rating 116
10/16 H #376 Eaton (4-4) D4 R16, pick: W by 9 (72%)
10/23 A #89 Valley View (6-2) D4 R16, pick: L by 31 (2%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
15.07 Harbin points (divisor 99)
#4 seed in R20 playoffs
Playoff chances now
appears locked in and likely home, 42% bye (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 15.07 (13.00-20.57) 100% home, 56% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#7), bye 56%
Lose: 12.09 (10.38-17.09) 100% in, 97% home, 3% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), Preble Shawnee (6-2) 19%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 8W: 19.15 (17.03-20.57) 100% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(72%) 7W: 15.07 (13.00-17.09) 100% home, 55% bye, proj. #4 (#3-#7), bye 55%
(27%) 6W: 12.09 (10.38-13.66) 100% in, 97% home, 2% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#10), Preble Shawnee (6-2) 19%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WW: 19.15 (17.03-20.57) 100% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(71%) WL: 15.07 (13.00-16.68) 100% home, 55% bye, proj. #4 (#3-#7), bye 55%
(27%) LL: 12.09 (10.38-13.66) 100% in, 97% home, 2% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#10), Preble Shawnee (6-2) 19%
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (5-2, 104.8, #335, D5 #37), appears locked in and likely home, 12% bye (likely needs 8-2), proj. #5 at 7-3
Week 6 (5-1, 112.6, #272, D5 #30), appears locked in and likely home, 68% bye (likely needs 8-2), proj. #3 at 8-2
Week 5 (4-1, 110.2, #290, D5 #32), likely in, 93% home (maybe if 6-4), 65% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #3 at 8-2
Week 4 (4-0, 121.3, #207, D5 #21), likely in and likely home, 95% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #1 at 8-2
Week 3 (3-0, 117.2, #240, D5 #24), likely in, 96% home (maybe if 5-5), 85% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. #2 at 8-2
Week 2 (2-0, 118.7, #230, D5 #22), likely in, 96% home (maybe if 5-5), 85% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. #2 at 8-2
Week 1 (1-0, 114.7, #250, D5 #26), 94% (bubble if 4-6), 84% home (maybe if 5-5), 63% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #1 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 103.0, #336, D5 #43), 56% (bubble if 4-6), 39% home (maybe if 6-4), 22% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #11 at 5-5
Last season 95.9