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Rankings
#43 of 105 in Division 5
#6 of 26 in Region 20
Strength of schedule #22 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #103 in D5 (0 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 H #123 Clinton-Massie (0-0) D4 R16, pick: L by 27 (11%)
08/28 A #357 Greeneview (0-0) D5 R20, pick: L by 1 (48%)
09/04 H #460 Hillsboro (0-0) D3 R12, pick: W by 19 (86%)
09/11 H #199 Brookville (0-0) D5 R20, pick: L by 17 (16%)
09/18 A #344 Oakwood (0-0) D4 R16, pick: L by 1 (48%)
09/25 A #580 Dayton Christian (0-0) D5 R20, pick: W by 30 (97%)
10/02 A #259 Carlisle (0-0) D5 R20, pick: L by 12 (22%)
10/09 H #529 Madison (Middletown) (0-0) D5 R20, pick: W by 26 (96%)
10/16 H #365 Eaton (0-0) D4 R16, pick: W by 5 (63%)
10/23 A #126 Valley View (0-0) D4 R16, pick: L by 29 (3%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
10.70 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#11 seed in R20 playoffs
Playoff chances now
56% (bubble if 4-6), 38% home (maybe if 6-4), 22% bye (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 19.00 ( 1.55-33.95) 92% in, 81% home, 61% bye, proj. #3 (#1-out), bye 67%
Lose: 9.35 ( 0.00-30.70) 51% in, 33% home, 17% bye, proj. #12 (#1-out), bye 33%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 10W: 28.20 (22.45-33.95) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#3), bye 100%
( 5%) 9W: 24.30 (17.30-31.20) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#5), bye 99%
( 8%) 8W: 20.50 (14.05-28.40) 100% in, 99% home, 94% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#9), bye 94%
(11%) 7W: 16.95 (11.00-24.70) 99% in, 97% home, 57% bye, proj. #4 (#1-out), bye 57%
(14%) 6W: 13.60 ( 7.85-20.30) 98% in, 69% home, 12% bye, proj. #7 (#1-out), bye 13%
(16%) 5W: 10.70 ( 4.95-16.85) 77% in, 22% home, 1% bye, proj. #11 (#2-out), Preble Shawnee (0-0) 8%
(15%) 4W: 8.00 ( 3.20-14.80) 27% in, 2% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#3-out), Preble Shawnee (0-0) 9%
(13%) 3W: 5.60 ( 1.90-12.60) 3% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Preble Shawnee (0-0) 13%
( 9%) 2W: 3.50 ( 1.00- 9.10) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
( 6%) 1W: 1.60 ( 0.45- 5.15) out, proj. out
( 2%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Most likely first round opponents
Preble Shawnee (0-0) 4%
Williamsburg (0-0) 4%
Greeneview (0-0) 4%
Purcell Marian (0-0) 4%
Most likely second round opponents
Brookville (0-0) 10%
Preble Shawnee (0-0) 9%
Carlisle (0-0) 8%
Williamsburg (0-0) 8%
Greeneview (0-0) 7%
Weekly summary info
Week 0 (0-0, 68.8, #564, D5 #87), 53% (bubble if 5-4), 32% home (maybe if 6-3), 14% bye (maybe if 7-2), proj. #12 at 5-4
Last season 95.9