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Rankings
#33 of 105 in Division 4
#10 of 25 in Region 14
Strength of schedule #12 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #51 in D4 (-128 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 38-0 H #642 Rogers (0-4) D3 R10, pick: W by 27 (89%), perf. rating 105
08/29 L 19-14 H #208 Van Wert (2-2) D4 R14, pick: L by 4 (42%), perf. rating 112
09/05 L 13-10 A #155 Shawnee (Lima) (3-1) D3 R10, pick: L by 11 (27%), perf. rating 129
09/12 W 36-18 H #348 Kenton (1-3) D4 R14, pick: W by 14 (80%), perf. rating 128
09/19 H #333 Ottawa-Glandorf (0-4) D4 R14, pick: W by 16 (84%)
09/26 A #129 Bath (3-1) D4 R14, pick: L by 19 (11%)
10/03 A #249 Celina (1-3) D3 R10, pick: W by 1 (53%)
10/10 H #283 Defiance (2-2) D3 R10, pick: W by 9 (72%)
10/17 A #60 Wapakoneta (4-0) D3 R10, pick: L by 28 (3%)
10/24 A #125 St Marys Memorial (2-2) D3 R10, pick: L by 20 (9%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
5.25 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R14 playoffs
Playoff chances now
19% (bubble if 6-4), 4% home (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 7.20 ( 2.05-22.45) 22% in, 5% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#2-out), Clear Fork (3-1) 13%
Lose: 4.20 ( 1.55-16.20) 6% in, 1% home, proj. out (#5-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 4%) 7W: 15.60 (13.45-18.55) 99% in, 71% home, 6% bye, proj. #7 (#3-out), Clear Fork (3-1) 12%
(12%) 6W: 11.45 ( 9.35-16.20) 78% in, 5% home, proj. #11 (#5-out), Clear Fork (3-1) 15%
(29%) 5W: 7.85 ( 6.70-13.70) 16% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Perkins (1-3) 16%
(30%) 4W: 5.25 ( 4.10-10.50) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
(19%) 3W: 3.60 ( 2.05- 9.05) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
( 6%) 2W: 2.10 ( 1.55- 4.85) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWWWLW: 15.10 (13.45-18.40) 99% in, 65% home, 5% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Clear Fork (3-1) 12%
( 4%) WWWWLL: 11.75 (10.75-14.55) 84% in, 4% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Clear Fork (3-1) 16%
( 5%) WLWWLW: 10.95 ( 9.35-14.70) 68% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Perkins (1-3) 16%
(21%) WLWWLL: 7.75 ( 6.70-11.00) 9% in, proj. out (#10-out), Perkins (1-3) 20%
(17%) WLLWLL: 5.20 ( 4.10- 9.05) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Bay (3-1) 75%
( 7%) WLWLLL: 5.20 ( 4.10- 8.60) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Clear Fork (3-1) 50%
(13%) WLLLLL: 3.10 ( 2.05- 6.50) out
( 6%) LLLLLL: 2.10 ( 1.55- 4.85) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 118.4, #226, D4 #33), 19% (bubble if 6-4), 4% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 3 (1-2, 116.6, #242, D4 #37), 21% (bubble if 5-5), 6% home (likely needs 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (1-1, 115.7, #249, D4 #34), 31% (bubble if 5-5), 13% home (maybe if 6-4), 4% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (1-0, 115.6, #241, D4 #30), 46% (bubble if 5-5), 27% home (maybe if 7-3), 11% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 110.1, #275, D4 #42), 37% (bubble if 5-5), 21% home (maybe if 6-4), 8% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 109.0