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Region 14 playoff probabilities
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Rankings
#41 of 102 in Division 4
#9 of 25 in Region 14
Strength of schedule #3 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #51 in D4 (-200 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 48-6 A #590 Rogers (1-5) D2 R6, pick: W by 32 (93%), perf. rating 126
08/28 L 31-21 A #162 Van Wert (4-2) D4 R14, pick: L by 6 (38%), perf. rating 116
09/04 L 28-7 H #200 Shawnee (Lima) (3-3) D3 R10, pick: L by 4 (41%), perf. rating 89
09/11 L 35-20 A #330 Kenton (1-5) D4 R14, pick: W by 9 (70%), perf. rating 85
09/18 L 23-6 A #72 Ottawa-Glandorf (6-0) D4 R14, pick: L by 37 (1%), perf. rating 122
09/25 W 28-21 H #305 Bath (2-4) D5 R18, pick: L by 6 (35%), perf. rating 117
10/02 H #82 Celina (6-0) D3 R10, pick: L by 29 (3%)
10/09 A #342 Defiance (1-5) D3 R10, pick: W by 2 (55%)
10/16 H #57 Wapakoneta (3-3) D3 R10, pick: L by 33 (1%)
10/23 H #161 St Marys Memorial (3-3) D3 R10, pick: L by 20 (9%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
5.55 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R14 playoffs
Playoff chances now
13% (likely needs 4-6), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 10.15 ( 7.40-16.25) 98% in, 28% home, proj. #9 (#6-out), Firelands (4-2) 28%
Lose: 5.05 ( 2.45-13.25) 10% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Bellevue (4-2) 26%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 5W: 12.65 (10.00-15.20) 100% in, 74% home, proj. #8 (#7-#10), Firelands (4-2) 42%
(11%) 4W: 8.55 ( 6.40-12.15) 88% in, 4% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Bellevue (4-2) 25%
(49%) 3W: 5.55 ( 4.05- 9.65) 4% in, proj. out (#9-out), Otsego (4-2) 28%
(39%) 2W: 3.95 ( 2.45- 6.10) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWLL: 10.10 ( 9.00-11.75) 99% in, 16% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Firelands (4-2) 28%
( 9%) LWLW: 8.45 ( 6.40-10.65) 84% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Bellevue (4-2) 27%
( 3%) LLLW: 6.90 ( 5.30- 8.60) 23% in, proj. out (#9-out), Otsego (4-2) 32%
(44%) LWLL: 5.50 ( 4.05- 7.65) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Otsego (4-2) 41%
(39%) LLLL: 3.95 ( 2.45- 6.10) out
Weekly summary info
Week 6 (2-4, 107.0, #312, D4 #41), 13% (likely needs 4-6), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 5 (1-4, 103.9, #336, D4 #50), 9% (likely needs 4-6), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 4 (1-3, 98.5, #377, D4 #59), 3% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely, proj. out at 1-9
Week 3 (1-2, 108.6, #301, D4 #43), 16% (bubble if 5-5), 3% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (1-1, 115.3, #250, D4 #35), 42% (bubble if 4-6), 19% home (maybe if 6-4), 3% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (1-0, 117.1, #233, D4 #30), 45% (bubble if 5-5), 25% home (maybe if 6-4), 9% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 112.2, #265, D4 #34), 50% (bubble if 4-6), 29% home (maybe if 6-4), 11% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 114.0