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Rankings
#43 of 101 in Division 4
#11 of 25 in Region 14
Strength of schedule #3 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #52 in D4 (-167 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 48-6 A #592 Rogers (0-3) D2 R6, pick: W by 32 (93%), perf. rating 126
08/28 L 31-21 A #150 Van Wert (3-0) D4 R14, pick: L by 6 (38%), perf. rating 117
09/04 L 28-7 H #178 Shawnee (Lima) (2-1) D3 R10, pick: L by 3 (43%), perf. rating 92
09/11 A #380 Kenton (0-3) D4 R14, pick: W by 9 (70%)
09/18 A #72 Ottawa-Glandorf (3-0) D4 R14, pick: L by 31 (3%)
09/25 H #312 Bath (0-3) D5 R18, pick: W by 3 (57%)
10/02 H #117 Celina (3-0) D3 R10, pick: L by 24 (6%)
10/09 A #287 Defiance (1-2) D3 R10, pick: L by 5 (37%)
10/16 H #76 Wapakoneta (1-2) D3 R10, pick: L by 28 (3%)
10/23 H #93 St Marys Memorial (2-1) D3 R10, pick: L by 26 (4%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
4.10 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R14 playoffs
Playoff chances now
16% (bubble if 5-5), 3% home (maybe if 6-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 5.05 ( 1.10-23.80) 21% in, 5% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#2-out), Firelands (2-1) 14%
Lose: 2.65 ( 0.60-17.35) 4% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), Bellevue (2-1) 14%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 7W: 16.70 (13.70-20.55) 100% in, 89% home, 6% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#11), Buckeye (0-3) 14%
( 4%) 6W: 12.80 (10.05-17.60) 99% in, 46% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Firelands (2-1) 15%
(10%) 5W: 9.35 ( 6.45-15.40) 73% in, 6% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Firelands (2-1) 14%
(20%) 4W: 6.15 ( 4.05-14.95) 15% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), Bellevue (2-1) 14%
(27%) 3W: 4.10 ( 2.00-12.50) 2% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out)
(24%) 2W: 2.60 ( 1.05- 8.45) 1% in, proj. out (#9-out)
(13%) 1W: 2.05 ( 0.60- 4.45) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WLWWWWW: 16.60 (13.70-20.15) 100% in, 83% home, 6% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#11), Buckeye (0-3) 19%
( 3%) WLWWWLL: 9.70 ( 7.90-12.40) 81% in, 4% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Firelands (2-1) 14%
(13%) WLWLWLL: 5.65 ( 4.05- 8.90) 5% in, proj. out (#9-out), Bellevue (2-1) 16%
( 6%) WLLLWLL: 4.15 ( 2.65- 7.00) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Bellevue (2-1) 60%
(14%) WLWLLLL: 3.55 ( 2.00- 6.95) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Bellevue (2-1) 50%
(14%) WLLLLLL: 2.60 ( 1.10- 5.45) out
( 6%) LLWLLLL: 2.55 ( 1.05- 5.45) out
(13%) LLLLLLL: 2.05 ( 0.60- 4.45) out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (1-2, 108.6, #301, D4 #43), 16% (bubble if 5-5), 3% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (1-1, 115.3, #250, D4 #35), 42% (bubble if 4-6), 19% home (maybe if 6-4), 3% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (1-0, 117.1, #233, D4 #30), 45% (bubble if 5-5), 25% home (maybe if 6-4), 9% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 112.2, #265, D4 #34), 50% (bubble if 4-6), 29% home (maybe if 6-4), 11% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 114.0