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Rankings
#8 of 107 in Division 3
#2 of 28 in Region 10
Strength of schedule #22 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #14 in D3 (+155 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 28-7 H #199 Clay (2-2) D2 R6, pick: W by 25 (87%), perf. rating 152
08/29 W 24-7 H #249 Celina (1-3) D3 R10, pick: W by 31 (94%), perf. rating 139
09/05 W 31-7 A #283 Defiance (2-2) D3 R10, pick: W by 25 (92%), perf. rating 149
09/12 W 42-14 A #333 Ottawa-Glandorf (0-4) D4 R14, pick: W by 33 (98%), perf. rating 148
09/19 H #125 St Marys Memorial (2-2) D3 R10, pick: W by 14 (81%)
09/26 A #208 Van Wert (2-2) D4 R14, pick: W by 24 (94%)
10/03 A #155 Shawnee (Lima) (3-1) D3 R10, pick: W by 16 (85%)
10/10 H #348 Kenton (1-3) D4 R14, pick: W by 36 (99%)
10/17 H #226 Elida (2-2) D4 R14, pick: W by 28 (97%)
10/24 A #129 Bath (3-1) D4 R14, pick: W by 12 (79%)
Regular season projections
10-0 record
28.30 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#2 seed in R10 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 97% home (likely needs 7-3), 84% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 28.20 (10.30-30.85) 99% in, 99% home, 93% bye, proj. #2 (#1-out), bye 93%
Lose: 20.20 ( 8.10-27.05) 98% in, 85% home, 47% bye, proj. #5 (#1-out), bye 48%
Based on eventual number of wins
(51%) 10W: 28.30 (27.45-30.85) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(28%) 9W: 24.10 (22.45-28.50) 100% home, 98% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 98%
(12%) 8W: 20.10 (18.25-24.20) 100% in, 99% home, 42% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#9), bye 42%
( 6%) 7W: 16.45 (14.55-20.20) 100% in, 82% home, 4% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#12), Toledo Central Catholic (1-3) 15%
( 2%) 6W: 12.90 (11.65-17.20) 94% in, 17% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Lexington (3-1) 15%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(51%) WWWWWW: 28.30 (27.45-30.85) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
( 2%) WLWWWW: 24.88 (24.05-27.45) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
( 7%) LWWWWW: 24.15 (23.30-27.05) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#5), bye 99%
( 6%) WWLWWW: 24.10 (22.45-27.15) 100% home, 94% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 94%
(11%) WWWWWL: 23.75 (22.95-26.65) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#5), bye 99%
( 3%) LWWWWL: 19.90 (18.75-22.50) 100% home, 35% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#7), bye 35%
( 3%) WWLWWL: 19.50 (18.25-23.20) 100% home, 26% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#8), bye 26%
( 2%) LWLWWL: 15.80 (14.55-17.95) 100% in, 65% home, proj. #8 (#5-#12), Holy Name (3-1) 18%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (4-0, 149.2, #60, D3 #8), likely in, 97% home (likely needs 7-3), 84% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #2 at 10-0
Week 3 (3-0, 151.5, #53, D3 #8), likely in and likely home, 90% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #2 at 9-1
Week 2 (2-0, 152.7, #51, D3 #6), likely in, 98% home (maybe if 6-4), 91% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #2 at 9-1
Week 1 (1-0, 155.3, #42, D3 #6), likely in, 96% home (maybe if 6-4), 86% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #1 at 9-1
Week 0 (0-0, 154.2, #42, D3 #6), 92% (bubble if 5-5), 82% home (maybe if 6-4), 63% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #1 at 9-1
Last season 152.2