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Rankings
#6 of 102 in Division 3
#1 of 25 in Region 10
Strength of schedule #17 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #18 in D3 (+202 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 27-21 A #68 Clay (6-0) D2 R6, pick: W by 24 (86%), perf. rating 139
08/28 L 7-6 A #82 Celina (6-0) D3 R10, pick: W by 13 (74%), perf. rating 143
09/04 W 29-0 H #342 Defiance (1-5) D3 R10, pick: W by 23 (90%), perf. rating 144
09/11 L 27-24 H #72 Ottawa-Glandorf (6-0) D4 R14, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 139
09/18 W 49-21 A #161 St Marys Memorial (3-3) D3 R10, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 172
09/25 W 35-13 H #162 Van Wert (4-2) D4 R14, pick: W by 22 (92%), perf. rating 159
10/02 H #200 Shawnee (Lima) (3-3) D3 R10, pick: W by 27 (96%)
10/09 A #330 Kenton (1-5) D4 R14, pick: W by 34 (99%)
10/16 A #312 Elida (2-4) D4 R14, pick: W by 33 (99%)
10/23 H #305 Bath (2-4) D5 R18, pick: W by 34 (99%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
16.45 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#5 seed in R10 playoffs
Playoff chances now
appears locked in and likely home, 19% bye (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 16.45 (11.30-18.60) 100% in, 99% home, 20% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#9), bye 20%
Lose: 13.75 (10.25-15.40) 100% in, 87% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#11), Midview (3-3) 14%
Based on eventual number of wins
(92%) 7W: 16.45 (16.20-18.60) 100% in, 99% home, 21% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#9), bye 21%
( 8%) 6W: 14.30 (13.05-16.40) 100% in, 95% home, 2% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#11), Tiffin Columbian (4-2) 17%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(92%) WWWW: 16.45 (16.20-18.60) 100% in, 99% home, 21% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#9), bye 21%
( 1%) WLWW: 14.90 (13.90-16.40) 100% in, 99% home, 3% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#9), Tiffin Columbian (4-2) 22%
( 1%) WWWL: 14.45 (14.25-15.90) 100% home, 2% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#8), Tiffin Columbian (4-2) 20%
( 1%) WWLW: 14.40 (13.65-15.90) 100% in, 99% home, 1% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#9), Tiffin Columbian (4-2) 20%
( 4%) LWWW: 13.80 (13.05-15.40) 100% in, 91% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#11), Tiffin Columbian (4-2) 13%
Weekly summary info
Week 6 (3-3, 150.6, #57, D3 #6), appears locked in and likely home, 19% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #5 at 7-3
Week 5 (2-3, 150.3, #57, D3 #6), likely in, 98% home (maybe if 5-5), 39% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #4 at 7-3
Week 4 (1-3, 144.6, #76, D3 #6), 96% (bubble if 4-6), 65% home (maybe if 6-4), 9% bye, proj. #9 at 6-4
Week 3 (1-2, 142.5, #76, D3 #9), 84% (bubble if 5-5), 63% home (maybe if 6-4), 31% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #4 at 7-3
Week 2 (0-2, 136.6, #113, D3 #14), 73% (bubble if 4-6), 50% home (maybe if 6-4), 21% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #7 at 6-4
Week 1 (0-1, 142.4, #85, D3 #11), 86% (bubble if 4-6), 72% home (maybe if 5-5), 44% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #5 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 154.0, #43, D3 #4), 97% (bubble if 4-6), 92% home (maybe if 6-4), 77% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #1 at 9-1
Last season 155.3