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Region 10 playoff probabilities
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Rankings
#6 of 102 in Division 3
#1 of 25 in Region 10
Strength of schedule #14 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #11 in D3 (+217 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 27-21 A #66 Clay (7-1) D2 R6, pick: W by 24 (86%), perf. rating 140
08/28 L 7-6 A #63 Celina (8-0) D3 R10, pick: W by 13 (74%), perf. rating 148
09/04 W 29-0 H #403 Defiance (1-7) D3 R10, pick: W by 23 (90%), perf. rating 135
09/11 L 27-24 H #72 Ottawa-Glandorf (8-0) D4 R14, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 139
09/18 W 49-21 A #141 St Marys Memorial (5-3) D3 R10, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 175
09/25 W 35-13 H #154 Van Wert (4-4) D4 R14, pick: W by 22 (92%), perf. rating 160
10/02 W 26-14 H #203 Shawnee (Lima) (3-5) D3 R10, pick: W by 27 (96%), perf. rating 139
10/09 W 42-0 A #289 Kenton (2-6) D4 R14, pick: W by 29 (97%), perf. rating 176
10/16 A #288 Elida (3-5) D4 R14, pick: W by 31 (98%)
10/23 H #286 Bath (2-6) D5 R18, pick: W by 33 (99%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
16.45 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#5 seed in R10 playoffs
Playoff chances now
appears locked in and likely home, 11% bye
Depending on the next game
Win: 16.45 (14.35-17.60) 100% in, 99% home, 11% bye, proj. #5 (#4-#9), Maumee (4-4) 20%
Lose: 14.35 (11.80-14.90) 100% in, 88% home, proj. #7 (#5-#11), Buchtel (5-3) 28%
Based on eventual number of wins
(97%) 7W: 16.45 (16.30-17.60) 100% in, 99% home, 12% bye, proj. #5 (#4-#9), Maumee (4-4) 21%
( 3%) 6W: 14.35 (13.70-15.35) 100% in, 93% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#10), Buchtel (5-3) 29%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(97%) WW: 16.45 (16.30-17.60) 100% in, 99% home, 12% bye, proj. #5 (#4-#9), Maumee (4-4) 21%
( 1%) WL: 14.40 (14.35-15.35) 100% in, 97% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#9), Buchtel (5-3) 31%
( 2%) LW: 14.35 (13.70-14.90) 100% in, 90% home, proj. #7 (#5-#10), Buchtel (5-3) 28%
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (4-3, 148.9, #59, D3 #6), appears locked in and likely home, 23% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #5 at 7-3
Week 6 (3-3, 150.6, #57, D3 #6), appears locked in and likely home, 19% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #5 at 7-3
Week 5 (2-3, 150.3, #57, D3 #6), likely in, 98% home (maybe if 5-5), 39% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #4 at 7-3
Week 4 (1-3, 144.6, #76, D3 #6), 96% (bubble if 4-6), 65% home (maybe if 6-4), 9% bye, proj. #9 at 6-4
Week 3 (1-2, 142.5, #76, D3 #9), 84% (bubble if 5-5), 63% home (maybe if 6-4), 31% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #4 at 7-3
Week 2 (0-2, 136.6, #113, D3 #14), 73% (bubble if 4-6), 50% home (maybe if 6-4), 21% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #7 at 6-4
Week 1 (0-1, 142.4, #85, D3 #11), 86% (bubble if 4-6), 72% home (maybe if 5-5), 44% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #5 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 154.0, #43, D3 #4), 97% (bubble if 4-6), 92% home (maybe if 6-4), 77% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #1 at 9-1
Last season 155.3