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Rankings
#32 of 107 in Division 3
#8 of 28 in Region 10
Strength of schedule #18 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #22 in D3 (+68 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 22-19 H #168 Lima Central Catholic (4-0) D7 R26, pick: L by 13 (28%), perf. rating 122
08/29 W 37-6 A #348 Kenton (1-3) D4 R14, pick: L by 6 (38%), perf. rating 151
09/05 W 13-10 H #226 Elida (2-2) D4 R14, pick: W by 11 (73%), perf. rating 121
09/12 W 31-21 A #129 Bath (3-1) D4 R14, pick: L by 20 (12%), perf. rating 152
09/19 H #249 Celina (1-3) D3 R10, pick: W by 18 (87%)
09/26 A #283 Defiance (2-2) D3 R10, pick: W by 18 (87%)
10/03 H #60 Wapakoneta (4-0) D3 R10, pick: L by 16 (15%)
10/10 A #125 St Marys Memorial (2-2) D3 R10, pick: L by 7 (32%)
10/17 H #208 Van Wert (2-2) D4 R14, pick: W by 12 (79%)
10/24 A #333 Ottawa-Glandorf (0-4) D4 R14, pick: W by 23 (93%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
17.35 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#5 seed in R10 playoffs
Playoff chances now
93% (bubble if 5-5), 73% home (maybe if 6-4), 26% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 17.50 ( 8.60-26.35) 97% in, 80% home, 29% bye, proj. #6 (#1-out), bye 30%
Lose: 13.25 ( 6.10-23.95) 68% in, 26% home, 5% bye, proj. #11 (#2-out), Copley (3-1) 11%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 7%) 9W: 25.95 (25.65-26.35) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(25%) 8W: 21.10 (20.35-25.75) 100% home, 61% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#8), bye 61%
(33%) 7W: 17.35 (16.25-22.40) 100% in, 97% home, 10% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#11), Tiffin Columbian (1-3) 12%
(22%) 6W: 14.40 (12.60-20.25) 98% in, 38% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#3-out), Holy Name (3-1) 14%
( 9%) 5W: 12.25 ( 9.55-16.60) 67% in, 7% home, proj. #12 (#6-out), St Marys Memorial (2-2) 15%
( 3%) 4W: 10.15 ( 7.55-13.45) 20% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 7%) WWWWWW: 25.95 (25.65-26.35) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
( 7%) WWWLWW: 22.20 (21.50-24.05) 100% home, 84% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#7), bye 84%
(17%) WWLWWW: 20.65 (20.35-22.35) 100% home, 49% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#8), bye 49%
(24%) WWLLWW: 17.00 (16.70-19.20) 100% in, 96% home, 6% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#11), Tiffin Columbian (1-3) 12%
( 4%) LWLLWW: 14.35 (13.10-16.60) 98% in, 26% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), St Marys Memorial (2-2) 14%
( 9%) WWLLLW: 14.30 (13.70-16.20) 99% in, 34% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Holy Name (3-1) 15%
( 4%) WLLLWW: 14.30 (12.60-17.70) 94% in, 22% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), St Marys Memorial (2-2) 16%
( 1%) LLLLLW: 9.25 ( 7.55-10.90) 5% in, proj. out (#11-out), Copley (3-1) 50%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 131.6, #155, D3 #32), 93% (bubble if 5-5), 73% home (maybe if 6-4), 26% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #5 at 7-3
Week 3 (2-1, 124.6, #191, D3 #42), 56% (bubble if 5-5), 30% home (maybe if 6-4), 7% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 2 (1-1, 124.2, #192, D3 #37), 47% (bubble if 5-5), 30% home (maybe if 6-4), 11% bye (likely needs 8-2), proj. #12 at 5-5
Week 1 (0-1, 108.7, #298, D3 #62), 18% (bubble if 5-5), 9% home (maybe if 6-4), 3% bye, proj. out at 2-8
Week 0 (0-0, 105.8, #309, D3 #61), 15% (bubble if 6-4), 8% home (maybe if 7-3), 3% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 2-8
Last season 106.7