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Rankings
#5 of 101 in Division 4
#3 of 25 in Region 14
Strength of schedule #2 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #9 in D4 (+333 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 52-7 H #254 Liberty-Benton (1-2) D5 R18, pick: L by 31 (8%), perf. rating 176
08/28 W 42-21 A #287 Defiance (1-2) D3 R10, pick: W by 20 (84%), perf. rating 144
09/04 W 45-7 H #380 Kenton (0-3) D4 R14, pick: W by 35 (97%), perf. rating 152
09/11 A #76 Wapakoneta (1-2) D3 R10, pick: L by 1 (48%)
09/18 H #301 Elida (1-2) D4 R14, pick: W by 31 (97%)
09/25 A #93 St Marys Memorial (2-1) D3 R10, pick: W by 3 (58%)
10/02 A #312 Bath (0-3) D5 R18, pick: W by 29 (97%)
10/09 H #150 Van Wert (3-0) D4 R14, pick: W by 17 (87%)
10/16 H #117 Celina (3-0) D3 R10, pick: W by 10 (74%)
10/23 A #178 Shawnee (Lima) (2-1) D3 R10, pick: W by 17 (87%)
Regular season projections
8-2 record
20.35 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#5 seed in R14 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 91% home (maybe if 6-4), 63% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 25.70 ( 7.10-31.10) 99% in, 99% home, 85% bye, proj. #2 (#1-out), bye 85%
Lose: 18.40 ( 4.30-28.10) 98% in, 84% home, 42% bye, proj. #5 (#1-out), bye 43%
Based on eventual number of wins
(22%) 10W: 28.50 (26.30-31.10) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(26%) 9W: 24.35 (21.20-30.05) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 99%
(21%) 8W: 20.35 (16.85-25.30) 100% in, 99% home, 62% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#9), bye 62%
(15%) 7W: 16.50 (12.90-22.40) 100% in, 98% home, 12% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), Upper Sandusky (2-1) 14%
(10%) 6W: 12.95 ( 9.55-19.00) 99% in, 67% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Firelands (2-1) 14%
( 5%) 5W: 9.90 ( 7.10-15.35) 91% in, 16% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Firelands (2-1) 16%
( 1%) 4W: 7.90 ( 4.45-11.60) 57% in, 3% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Firelands (2-1) 16%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(22%) WWWWWWW: 28.50 (26.30-31.10) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(11%) LWWWWWW: 24.65 (22.25-28.10) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#5), bye 99%
( 7%) WWLWWWW: 24.25 (21.70-27.75) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#5), bye 99%
( 3%) WWWWWLW: 23.70 (21.20-26.20) 100% home, 98% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#5), bye 98%
( 7%) LWLWWWW: 20.60 (18.15-24.70) 100% home, 71% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#8), bye 71%
( 3%) LWWWWLW: 19.55 (17.25-22.60) 100% home, 53% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#7), bye 53%
( 4%) LWLWWLW: 15.55 (13.10-20.05) 100% in, 99% home, 8% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), Upper Sandusky (2-1) 17%
( 1%) LWLLLLL: 7.95 ( 5.65-11.20) 64% in, 3% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Van Wert (3-0) 17%
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (3-0, 144.2, #72, D4 #5), likely in, 91% home (maybe if 6-4), 63% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #5 at 8-2
Week 2 (2-0, 143.6, #79, D4 #6), 98% (bubble if 4-6), 90% home (maybe if 5-5), 61% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #4 at 8-2
Week 1 (1-0, 141.6, #87, D4 #6), 91% (bubble if 4-6), 77% home (maybe if 6-4), 50% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #3 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 107.2, #297, D4 #39), 30% (bubble if 4-6), 15% home (maybe if 6-4), 4% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 100.9