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Rankings
#5 of 102 in Division 4
#3 of 25 in Region 14
Strength of schedule #2 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #3 in D4 (+427 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 52-7 H #309 Liberty-Benton (1-5) D5 R18, pick: L by 31 (8%), perf. rating 168
08/28 W 42-21 A #342 Defiance (1-5) D3 R10, pick: W by 20 (84%), perf. rating 136
09/04 W 45-7 H #330 Kenton (1-5) D4 R14, pick: W by 35 (97%), perf. rating 160
09/11 W 27-24 A #57 Wapakoneta (3-3) D3 R10, pick: L by 1 (48%), perf. rating 157
09/18 W 23-6 H #312 Elida (2-4) D4 R14, pick: W by 37 (99%), perf. rating 130
09/25 W 46-28 A #161 St Marys Memorial (3-3) D3 R10, pick: W by 8 (69%), perf. rating 158
10/02 A #305 Bath (2-4) D5 R18, pick: W by 29 (97%)
10/09 H #162 Van Wert (4-2) D4 R14, pick: W by 19 (89%)
10/16 H #82 Celina (6-0) D3 R10, pick: W by 5 (63%)
10/23 A #200 Shawnee (Lima) (3-3) D3 R10, pick: W by 21 (92%)
Regular season projections
10-0 record
28.20 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#2 seed in R14 playoffs
Playoff chances now
appears locked in and home, 94% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 27.15 (14.85-29.20) 100% home, 95% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#8), bye 95%
Lose: 21.28 (12.90-27.40) 100% home, 75% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#8), bye 75%
Based on eventual number of wins
(51%) 10W: 28.20 (26.50-29.20) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#2), bye 100%
(35%) 9W: 23.25 (21.40-27.40) 100% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(11%) 8W: 20.05 (17.40-24.85) 100% home, 70% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#7), bye 70%
( 2%) 7W: 17.10 (14.85-20.55) 100% home, 6% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#8), Rossford (3-3) 18%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(51%) WWWW: 28.20 (26.50-29.20) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#2), bye 100%
( 1%) LWWW: 26.10 (24.20-27.40) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#3), bye 100%
( 4%) WWWL: 25.25 (22.95-27.05) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
( 4%) WLWW: 24.20 (22.50-26.40) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(26%) WWLW: 23.15 (21.40-24.55) 100% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#4), bye 100%
( 5%) WWLL: 20.20 (18.30-22.30) 100% home, 86% bye, proj. #3 (#2-#6), bye 86%
( 4%) WLLW: 19.15 (17.40-20.90) 100% home, 39% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#7), bye 39%
( 1%) WLLL: 16.55 (14.85-18.80) 100% home, 1% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#8), Rossford (3-3) 16%
Weekly summary info
Week 6 (6-0, 145.8, #72, D4 #5), appears locked in and home, 94% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #2 at 10-0
Week 5 (5-0, 143.0, #82, D4 #6), appears locked in and likely home, 76% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #3 at 9-1
Week 4 (4-0, 145.7, #72, D4 #6), likely in and likely home, 80% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #3 at 9-1
Week 3 (3-0, 144.2, #72, D4 #5), likely in, 91% home (maybe if 6-4), 63% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #5 at 8-2
Week 2 (2-0, 143.6, #79, D4 #6), 98% (bubble if 4-6), 90% home (maybe if 5-5), 61% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #4 at 8-2
Week 1 (1-0, 141.6, #87, D4 #6), 91% (bubble if 4-6), 77% home (maybe if 6-4), 50% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #3 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 107.2, #297, D4 #39), 30% (bubble if 4-6), 15% home (maybe if 6-4), 4% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 100.9