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Rankings
#18 of 105 in Division 5
#10 of 25 in Region 18
Strength of schedule #2 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #50 in D5 (-85 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 54-43 A #154 Indian Lake (2-0) D5 R18, pick: W by 8 (64%), perf. rating 115
08/28 L 35-14 H #60 St Marys Memorial (2-0) D3 R10, pick: L by 19 (17%), perf. rating 115
09/04 H #187 Van Wert (2-0) D4 R14, pick: L by 1 (48%)
09/11 A #218 Shawnee (Lima) (1-1) D3 R10, pick: L by 1 (48%)
09/18 H #372 Kenton (0-2) D4 R14, pick: W by 23 (92%)
09/25 A #250 Elida (1-1) D4 R14, pick: W by 4 (60%)
10/02 H #79 Ottawa-Glandorf (2-0) D4 R14, pick: L by 20 (10%)
10/09 A #162 Celina (2-0) D3 R10, pick: L by 9 (28%)
10/16 H #257 Defiance (1-1) D3 R10, pick: W by 8 (70%)
10/23 A #112 Wapakoneta (0-2) D3 R10, pick: L by 17 (13%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
2.63 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R18 playoffs
Playoff chances now
19% (bubble if 6-4), 8% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 3.42 ( 0.60- 6.13) 33% in, 15% home, 4% bye, proj. out (#1-out), bye 13%
Lose: 1.81 ( 0.00- 5.36) 5% in, 1% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Archbold (2-0) 10%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 8W: 5.92 ( 5.88- 6.13) 100% home, 71% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#7), bye 71%
( 8%) 7W: 5.07 ( 4.93- 5.48) 100% in, 62% home, 2% bye, proj. #8 (#2-#12), Margaretta (1-1) 10%
(12%) 6W: 4.24 ( 4.07- 4.65) 65% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Archbold (2-0) 15%
(15%) 5W: 3.43 ( 3.22- 3.86) 4% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(18%) 4W: 2.63 ( 2.46- 3.03) out, proj. out
(17%) 3W: 1.90 ( 1.76- 2.35) out, proj. out
(15%) 2W: 1.20 ( 1.10- 1.71) out, proj. out
(10%) 1W: 0.55 ( 0.50- 0.92) out, proj. out
( 3%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) WWWWWWWW: 5.92 ( 5.88- 6.13) 100% home, 71% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#7), bye 71%
( 3%) WWWWLWWW: 5.04 ( 4.99- 5.28) 100% in, 54% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#12), Margaretta (1-1) 13%
( 3%) WWWWLWWL: 4.24 ( 4.17- 4.50) 64% in, 2% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Archbold (2-0) 17%
( 3%) WWWWLLWL: 3.33 ( 3.27- 3.56) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out), Eastwood (1-1) 25%
( 3%) WLWWLLWL: 2.58 ( 2.51- 2.96) out
( 4%) LLWLLLWL: 1.16 ( 1.15- 1.37) out
( 6%) LLWLLLLL: 0.50 ( 0.50- 0.77) out
( 3%) LLLLLLLL: 0.00 out
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (0-2, 121.1, #213, D5 #18), 22% (bubble if 6-4), 10% home (maybe if 7-3), 3% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (0-1, 123.8, #188, D5 #15), 32% (bubble if 6-4), 18% home (maybe if 7-3), 7% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 132.0, #138, D5 #11), 62% (bubble if 6-4), 45% home (maybe if 7-3), 26% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #8 at 7-3
Last season 134.9