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Rankings
#14 of 105 in Division 4
#4 of 25 in Region 14
Strength of schedule #5 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #7 in D4 (+368 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 50-21 H #299 Indian Lake (2-2) D5 R20, pick: W by 9 (66%), perf. rating 151
08/29 W 56-36 A #125 St Marys Memorial (2-2) D3 R10, pick: W by 11 (71%), perf. rating 168
09/05 W 35-28 A #208 Van Wert (2-2) D4 R14, pick: W by 11 (73%), perf. rating 134
09/12 L 31-21 H #155 Shawnee (Lima) (3-1) D3 R10, pick: W by 20 (88%), perf. rating 115
09/19 A #348 Kenton (1-3) D4 R14, pick: W by 27 (95%)
09/26 H #226 Elida (2-2) D4 R14, pick: W by 19 (89%)
10/03 A #333 Ottawa-Glandorf (0-4) D4 R14, pick: W by 26 (95%)
10/10 H #249 Celina (1-3) D3 R10, pick: W by 21 (92%)
10/17 A #283 Defiance (2-2) D3 R10, pick: W by 22 (93%)
10/24 H #60 Wapakoneta (4-0) D3 R10, pick: L by 12 (21%)
Regular season projections
8-2 record
19.75 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#3 seed in R14 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 94% home (maybe if 6-4), 69% bye (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 19.70 ( 8.90-28.00) 99% in, 96% home, 71% bye, proj. #4 (#1-out), bye 71%
Lose: 16.33 ( 7.40-25.05) 95% in, 73% home, 34% bye, proj. #6 (#2-out), bye 35%
Based on eventual number of wins
(22%) 9W: 24.65 (22.00-28.00) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(48%) 8W: 19.75 (17.15-25.40) 100% home, 84% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#8), bye 84%
(21%) 7W: 17.05 (13.55-23.00) 100% in, 96% home, 34% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#12), bye 34%
( 7%) 6W: 14.60 (10.95-20.90) 99% in, 63% home, 5% bye, proj. #8 (#2-out), Cloverleaf (3-1) 13%
( 2%) 5W: 12.55 ( 9.45-17.00) 94% in, 24% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#4-out), Clear Fork (3-1) 15%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(22%) WWWWWW: 24.65 (22.00-28.00) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(44%) WWWWWL: 19.70 (17.15-23.10) 100% home, 82% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#8), bye 82%
( 2%) WWLWWL: 18.45 (15.60-20.90) 100% home, 59% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#7), bye 59%
( 2%) LWWWWL: 17.90 (15.25-22.05) 100% in, 99% home, 51% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#9), bye 51%
( 5%) WWWLWL: 16.70 (14.55-20.40) 100% in, 97% home, 30% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#10), bye 30%
( 6%) WLWWWL: 16.65 (14.05-19.90) 100% in, 93% home, 26% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#12), bye 26%
( 5%) WWWWLL: 16.65 (13.55-21.50) 100% in, 95% home, 26% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), bye 26%
( 1%) WLWLWL: 13.95 (11.05-17.20) 99% in, 47% home, 2% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Cloverleaf (3-1) 18%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 135.4, #129, D4 #14), likely in, 94% home (maybe if 6-4), 69% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #3 at 8-2
Week 3 (3-0, 142.9, #89, D4 #8), likely in, 98% home (maybe if 6-4), 88% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #2 at 9-1
Week 2 (2-0, 138.8, #105, D4 #12), 93% (bubble if 5-5), 82% home (maybe if 6-4), 60% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #2 at 8-2
Week 1 (1-0, 132.8, #136, D4 #15), 78% (bubble if 5-5), 61% home (maybe if 6-4), 37% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #5 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 122.4, #196, D4 #22), 54% (bubble if 5-5), 35% home (maybe if 6-4), 16% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #9 at 5-5
Last season 125.3