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Rankings
#13 of 104 in Division 3
#3 of 26 in Region 10
Strength of schedule #19 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #18 in D3 (+124 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 36-12 H #187 Galion (2-1) D5 R18, pick: L by 4 (43%), perf. rating 157
08/28 W 35-14 A #312 Bath (0-3) D5 R18, pick: W by 19 (83%), perf. rating 140
09/04 L 30-28 H #117 Celina (3-0) D3 R10, pick: W by 22 (89%), perf. rating 131
09/11 A #287 Defiance (1-2) D3 R10, pick: W by 24 (92%)
09/18 H #76 Wapakoneta (1-2) D3 R10, pick: L by 1 (48%)
09/25 H #72 Ottawa-Glandorf (3-0) D4 R14, pick: L by 3 (42%)
10/02 A #150 Van Wert (3-0) D4 R14, pick: W by 8 (70%)
10/09 A #178 Shawnee (Lima) (2-1) D3 R10, pick: W by 13 (80%)
10/16 H #380 Kenton (0-3) D4 R14, pick: W by 34 (99%)
10/23 A #301 Elida (1-2) D4 R14, pick: W by 26 (96%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
16.25 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#5 seed in R10 playoffs
Playoff chances now
89% (bubble if 5-5), 70% home (maybe if 6-4), 38% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 17.75 ( 4.25-28.10) 92% in, 74% home, 41% bye, proj. #5 (#1-out), bye 44%
Lose: 10.55 ( 2.85-23.95) 53% in, 28% home, 8% bye, proj. #12 (#1-out), bye 15%
Based on eventual number of wins
(18%) 9W: 24.30 (21.65-28.10) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#6), bye 99%
(26%) 8W: 20.10 (17.40-25.55) 100% in, 99% home, 65% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#9), bye 65%
(23%) 7W: 16.25 (13.45-23.35) 99% in, 88% home, 13% bye, proj. #6 (#1-out), bye 13%
(17%) 6W: 13.00 (10.40-18.30) 96% in, 33% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#2-out), Buchtel (1-2) 13%
(10%) 5W: 10.05 ( 7.50-15.80) 53% in, 3% home, proj. #12 (#5-out), Buchtel (1-2) 11%
( 5%) 4W: 7.60 ( 4.80-11.50) 10% in, proj. out (#10-out)
( 1%) 3W: 5.90 ( 3.20- 9.10) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(18%) WWWWWWW: 24.30 (21.65-28.10) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#6), bye 99%
(10%) WLWWWWW: 20.20 (17.40-24.65) 100% in, 99% home, 52% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#9), bye 52%
(10%) WWLWWWW: 19.70 (17.55-24.05) 100% home, 70% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 70%
( 9%) WLLWWWW: 16.05 (13.45-19.80) 99% in, 84% home, 6% bye, proj. #7 (#2-out), Buchtel (1-2) 12%
( 4%) WWLLWWW: 15.75 (13.50-19.35) 100% in, 94% home, 16% bye, proj. #6 (#1-#11), bye 16%
( 6%) WLLLWWW: 12.50 (10.40-16.25) 96% in, 27% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#4-out), Buchtel (1-2) 13%
( 5%) WLLLLWW: 9.90 ( 7.50-13.15) 42% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Buchtel (1-2) 12%
( 1%) LLLLLWL: 5.35 ( 3.20- 9.10) out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (2-1, 139.6, #93, D3 #13), 89% (bubble if 5-5), 70% home (maybe if 6-4), 38% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #5 at 7-3
Week 2 (2-0, 148.2, #60, D3 #6), likely in, 95% home (maybe if 5-5), 84% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #1 at 9-1
Week 1 (1-0, 144.3, #75, D3 #8), 94% (bubble if 4-6), 85% home (maybe if 6-4), 62% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #2 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 130.8, #146, D3 #23), 70% (bubble if 5-5), 53% home (maybe if 6-4), 30% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #6 at 6-4
Last season 128.0