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Rankings
#25 of 107 in Division 3
#5 of 28 in Region 10
Strength of schedule #16 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #41 in D3 (-60 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 35-6 A #52 Galion (3-1) D4 R14, pick: W by 19 (81%), perf. rating 109
08/29 L 56-36 H #129 Bath (3-1) D4 R14, pick: L by 11 (28%), perf. rating 104
09/05 W 42-14 A #249 Celina (1-3) D3 R10, pick: L by 8 (33%), perf. rating 159
09/12 W 41-0 H #283 Defiance (2-2) D3 R10, pick: W by 13 (78%), perf. rating 170
09/19 A #60 Wapakoneta (4-0) D3 R10, pick: L by 14 (19%)
09/26 A #333 Ottawa-Glandorf (0-4) D4 R14, pick: W by 27 (96%)
10/03 H #208 Van Wert (2-2) D4 R14, pick: W by 18 (88%)
10/10 H #155 Shawnee (Lima) (3-1) D3 R10, pick: W by 7 (68%)
10/17 A #348 Kenton (1-3) D4 R14, pick: W by 27 (96%)
10/24 H #226 Elida (2-2) D4 R14, pick: W by 20 (91%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
16.85 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#6 seed in R10 playoffs
Playoff chances now
84% (bubble if 5-5), 56% home (likely needs 7-3), 12% bye (likely needs 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 21.40 ( 8.90-24.30) 99% in, 95% home, 59% bye, proj. #4 (#2-out), bye 59%
Lose: 14.45 ( 3.15-19.80) 81% in, 47% home, 2% bye, proj. #9 (#3-out), Holy Name (3-1) 12%
Based on eventual number of wins
(13%) 8W: 21.80 (21.15-24.30) 100% home, 81% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#7), bye 81%
(42%) 7W: 16.85 (16.35-21.85) 100% in, 93% home, 5% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#11), Holy Name (3-1) 11%
(27%) 6W: 13.20 (12.20-19.80) 95% in, 17% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#4-out), Holy Name (3-1) 14%
(12%) 5W: 10.25 ( 9.15-16.20) 33% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Shawnee (Lima) (3-1) 16%
( 5%) 4W: 7.75 ( 6.15-12.40) 3% in, proj. out (#10-out)
( 1%) 3W: 5.65 ( 4.15- 8.70) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(13%) WWWWWW: 21.80 (21.15-24.30) 100% home, 81% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#7), bye 81%
(37%) LWWWWW: 16.60 (16.35-19.70) 100% in, 92% home, 3% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#11), Toledo Central Catholic (1-3) 12%
( 4%) LWWWWL: 13.90 (13.30-15.95) 98% in, 23% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Holy Name (3-1) 15%
( 4%) LWLWWW: 13.45 (12.85-16.55) 98% in, 18% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#4-out), Holy Name (3-1) 16%
(15%) LWWLWW: 12.70 (12.20-15.45) 93% in, 5% home, proj. #11 (#5-out), Copley (3-1) 15%
( 4%) LWLLWW: 9.75 ( 9.20-12.90) 17% in, proj. out (#10-out), Shawnee (Lima) (3-1) 20%
( 4%) LWWLWL: 9.75 ( 9.15-12.45) 18% in, proj. out (#10-out), Revere (3-0) 24%
( 2%) LWLLWL: 6.75 ( 6.15-10.30) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Defiance (2-2) 100%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 136.7, #125, D3 #25), 84% (bubble if 5-5), 56% home (likely needs 7-3), 12% bye (likely needs 8-2), proj. #6 at 7-3
Week 3 (1-2, 129.9, #159, D3 #34), 68% (bubble if 5-5), 42% home (maybe if 6-4), 6% bye (likely needs 8-2), proj. #7 at 6-4
Week 2 (0-2, 115.5, #251, D3 #55), 24% (bubble if 5-5), 12% home (maybe if 6-4), 2% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (0-1, 120.0, #210, D3 #44), 39% (bubble if 5-5), 24% home (maybe if 6-4), 8% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 141.0, #99, D3 #21), 77% (bubble if 5-5), 60% home (maybe if 7-3), 35% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #5 at 7-3
Last season 141.0