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Rankings
#67 of 102 in Division 3
#17 of 25 in Region 10
Strength of schedule #15 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #65 in D3 (-181 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 9-8 A #364 Napoleon (1-5) D4 R14, pick: L by 11 (31%), perf. rating 104
08/28 L 42-21 H #72 Ottawa-Glandorf (6-0) D4 R14, pick: L by 20 (16%), perf. rating 112
09/04 L 29-0 A #57 Wapakoneta (3-3) D3 R10, pick: L by 23 (10%), perf. rating 109
09/11 L 35-21 H #161 St Marys Memorial (3-3) D3 R10, pick: L by 24 (8%), perf. rating 106
09/18 L 61-28 A #162 Van Wert (4-2) D4 R14, pick: L by 14 (19%), perf. rating 82
09/25 L 41-20 A #200 Shawnee (Lima) (3-3) D3 R10, pick: L by 17 (14%), perf. rating 93
10/02 H #330 Kenton (1-5) D4 R14, pick: L by 1 (47%)
10/09 H #312 Elida (2-4) D4 R14, pick: L by 2 (45%)
10/16 A #305 Bath (2-4) D5 R18, pick: L by 8 (30%)
10/23 H #82 Celina (6-0) D3 R10, pick: L by 31 (2%)
Regular season projections
2-8 record
3.20 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R10 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 4.25 ( 2.10-12.40) 2% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), St Marys Memorial (3-3) 20%
Lose: 2.65 ( 1.10-11.45) 1% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
(14%) 4W: 6.15 ( 5.15-11.45) 4% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out)
(25%) 3W: 4.65 ( 3.60- 9.40) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(32%) 2W: 3.20 ( 2.10- 7.85) out, proj. out
(28%) 1W: 1.65 ( 1.10- 3.30) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(12%) WWWL: 6.15 ( 5.15- 7.90) out
( 6%) LWWL: 4.70 ( 4.15- 7.40) out
(12%) WWLL: 4.20 ( 3.65- 6.40) out
( 7%) WLWL: 4.15 ( 3.60- 6.35) out
(12%) LWLL: 3.20 ( 2.65- 5.40) out
( 5%) LLWL: 3.15 ( 2.60- 5.35) out
(15%) WLLL: 2.65 ( 2.10- 4.85) out
(28%) LLLL: 1.65 ( 1.10- 3.30) out
Weekly summary info
Week 6 (1-5, 102.9, #342, D3 #67), 1% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance), proj. out at 2-8
Week 5 (1-4, 105.1, #322, D3 #65), 4% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 4 (1-3, 113.2, #278, D3 #50), 24% (bubble if 5-5), 4% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 4-6
Week 3 (1-2, 111.2, #287, D3 #55), 14% (bubble if 5-5), 4% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (1-1, 114.7, #256, D3 #44), 36% (bubble if 5-5), 16% home (maybe if 6-4), 4% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (1-0, 119.7, #218, D3 #41), 62% (bubble if 4-6), 35% home (maybe if 6-4), 12% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #9 at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 115.4, #242, D3 #47), 43% (bubble if 5-5), 26% home (maybe if 6-4), 10% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 112.2