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Rankings
#55 of 107 in Division 3
#17 of 28 in Region 10
Strength of schedule #13 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #39 in D3 (-35 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 20-19 H #196 Napoleon (2-2) D4 R14, pick: W by 4 (56%), perf. rating 123
08/29 W 21-20 A #333 Ottawa-Glandorf (0-4) D4 R14, pick: W by 15 (77%), perf. rating 108
09/05 L 31-7 H #60 Wapakoneta (4-0) D3 R10, pick: L by 25 (8%), perf. rating 111
09/12 L 41-0 A #125 St Marys Memorial (2-2) D3 R10, pick: L by 13 (22%), perf. rating 78
09/19 H #208 Van Wert (2-2) D4 R14, pick: L by 8 (31%)
09/26 H #155 Shawnee (Lima) (3-1) D3 R10, pick: L by 18 (13%)
10/03 A #348 Kenton (1-3) D4 R14, pick: W by 6 (65%)
10/10 A #226 Elida (2-2) D4 R14, pick: L by 9 (28%)
10/17 H #129 Bath (3-1) D4 R14, pick: L by 22 (7%)
10/24 A #249 Celina (1-3) D3 R10, pick: L by 7 (32%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
9.15 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R10 playoffs
Playoff chances now
25% (bubble if 5-5), 9% home (maybe if 6-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 11.75 ( 5.30-23.15) 53% in, 23% home, 3% bye, proj. #12 (#2-out), Holy Name (3-1) 12%
Lose: 7.20 ( 3.30-20.10) 13% in, 2% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#3-out), Revere (3-0) 12%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 8W: 21.40 (19.15-23.15) 100% home, 53% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#7), bye 53%
( 4%) 7W: 17.70 (15.05-21.00) 100% in, 93% home, 7% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), Holy Name (3-1) 13%
( 9%) 6W: 14.40 (11.45-20.10) 97% in, 31% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Holy Name (3-1) 13%
(16%) 5W: 11.60 ( 8.35-16.05) 53% in, 2% home, proj. #12 (#6-out), Revere (3-0) 13%
(23%) 4W: 9.15 ( 6.40-13.45) 8% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Revere (3-0) 17%
(27%) 3W: 6.70 ( 4.30-10.90) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(18%) 2W: 5.10 ( 3.30- 8.30) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WWWWWW: 21.40 (19.15-23.15) 100% home, 53% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#7), bye 53%
( 4%) LLWWLW: 10.85 ( 8.35-13.50) 37% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Revere (3-0) 17%
( 5%) WLWLLL: 9.10 ( 6.85-11.80) 4% in, proj. out (#11-out), Lexington (3-1) 22%
( 6%) LLWLLW: 8.70 ( 6.40-11.40) 3% in, proj. out (#11-out), Copley (3-1) 31%
( 5%) LLWWLL: 8.70 ( 6.90-11.40) 2% in, proj. out (#9-out), Lexington (3-1) 17%
( 4%) LLLLLW: 7.20 ( 4.90-10.35) out
(16%) LLWLLL: 6.60 ( 4.30-10.90) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Toledo Central Catholic (1-3) 50%
(18%) LLLLLL: 5.10 ( 3.30- 8.30) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 111.2, #283, D3 #55), 25% (bubble if 5-5), 9% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 4-6
Week 3 (2-1, 119.0, #226, D3 #47), 56% (bubble if 5-5), 31% home (maybe if 6-4), 7% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 5-5
Week 2 (2-0, 123.1, #198, D3 #39), 73% (bubble if 5-5), 52% home (maybe if 6-4), 22% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #5 at 6-4
Week 1 (1-0, 128.1, #162, D3 #33), 76% (bubble if 4-6), 58% home (maybe if 6-4), 29% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #6 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 129.0, #159, D3 #35), 54% (bubble if 5-5), 36% home (maybe if 7-3), 17% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 6-4
Last season 127.4