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Rankings
#44 of 104 in Division 3
#11 of 26 in Region 10
Strength of schedule #10 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #30 in D3 (+70 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 9-8 A #269 Napoleon (0-2) D4 R14, pick: L by 11 (31%), perf. rating 117
08/28 L 42-21 H #79 Ottawa-Glandorf (2-0) D4 R14, pick: L by 20 (16%), perf. rating 110
09/04 A #112 Wapakoneta (0-2) D3 R10, pick: L by 23 (10%)
09/11 H #60 St Marys Memorial (2-0) D3 R10, pick: L by 28 (5%)
09/18 A #187 Van Wert (2-0) D4 R14, pick: L by 12 (23%)
09/25 A #218 Shawnee (Lima) (1-1) D3 R10, pick: L by 7 (33%)
10/02 H #372 Kenton (0-2) D4 R14, pick: W by 18 (88%)
10/09 H #250 Elida (1-1) D4 R14, pick: W by 1 (53%)
10/16 A #213 Bath (0-2) D5 R18, pick: L by 8 (30%)
10/23 H #162 Celina (2-0) D3 R10, pick: L by 11 (23%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
2.59 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R10 playoffs
Playoff chances now
26% (bubble if 5-5), 11% home (maybe if 6-4), 3% bye
Depending on the next game
Win: 4.04 ( 1.36- 6.73) 71% in, 49% home, 21% bye, proj. #9 (#1-out), bye 30%
Lose: 2.13 ( 0.50- 6.14) 22% in, 8% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#1-out), Tiffin Columbian (2-0) 10%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 5%) 7W: 4.86 ( 4.50- 5.38) 100% in, 93% home, 17% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), bye 17%
(10%) 6W: 4.04 ( 3.68- 4.70) 97% in, 46% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Maumee (1-1) 11%
(15%) 5W: 3.30 ( 2.92- 3.80) 57% in, 2% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Tiffin Columbian (2-0) 13%
(20%) 4W: 2.59 ( 2.21- 3.16) 6% in, proj. out (#10-out)
(22%) 3W: 1.92 ( 1.56- 2.44) out, proj. out
(19%) 2W: 1.28 ( 1.00- 1.80) out, proj. out
( 7%) 1W: 0.78 ( 0.50- 0.96) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) LLLWWWWW: 4.04 ( 3.71- 4.33) 98% in, 49% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Cloverleaf (1-1) 13%
( 3%) LLLWWWLL: 2.58 ( 2.37- 2.95) 6% in, proj. out (#11-out), Cloverleaf (1-1) 25%
( 4%) LLLLWWWL: 2.44 ( 2.21- 2.77) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Celina (2-0) 50%
( 3%) LLLLWLLW: 2.02 ( 1.80- 2.33) out
( 4%) LLLWWLLL: 1.90 ( 1.66- 2.21) out
( 7%) LLLLWWLL: 1.89 ( 1.67- 2.27) out
(12%) LLLLWLLL: 1.28 ( 1.05- 1.60) out
( 7%) LLLLLLLL: 0.78 ( 0.50- 0.96) out
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (1-1, 114.7, #256, D3 #44), 36% (bubble if 5-5), 16% home (maybe if 6-4), 4% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (1-0, 119.7, #218, D3 #41), 62% (bubble if 4-6), 35% home (maybe if 6-4), 12% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #9 at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 115.4, #242, D3 #47), 43% (bubble if 5-5), 26% home (maybe if 6-4), 10% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 112.2