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Rankings
#51 of 107 in Division 3
#15 of 28 in Region 10
Strength of schedule #14 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #47 in D3 (-110 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 31-7 A #90 St Henry (3-1) D7 R28, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 109
08/29 L 24-7 A #60 Wapakoneta (4-0) D3 R10, pick: L by 31 (6%), perf. rating 126
09/05 L 42-14 H #125 St Marys Memorial (2-2) D3 R10, pick: W by 8 (67%), perf. rating 93
09/12 W 38-37 A #208 Van Wert (2-2) D4 R14, pick: L by 17 (16%), perf. rating 125
09/19 A #155 Shawnee (Lima) (3-1) D3 R10, pick: L by 18 (13%)
09/26 H #348 Kenton (1-3) D4 R14, pick: W by 15 (83%)
10/03 H #226 Elida (2-2) D4 R14, pick: L by 1 (47%)
10/10 A #129 Bath (3-1) D4 R14, pick: L by 21 (8%)
10/17 H #333 Ottawa-Glandorf (0-4) D4 R14, pick: W by 13 (80%)
10/24 H #283 Defiance (2-2) D3 R10, pick: W by 7 (68%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
7.20 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R10 playoffs
Playoff chances now
16% (likely needs 6-4), 3% home (likely needs 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 12.80 ( 5.15-19.70) 62% in, 20% home, 1% bye, proj. #11 (#4-out), Holy Name (3-1) 14%
Lose: 7.15 ( 1.50-17.15) 9% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), Revere (3-0) 14%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 7W: 17.35 (16.70-19.70) 100% in, 91% home, 4% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#11), Holy Name (3-1) 18%
(10%) 6W: 13.40 (12.60-18.50) 94% in, 14% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), St Marys Memorial (2-2) 16%
(25%) 5W: 9.80 ( 9.10-15.50) 19% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Revere (3-0) 16%
(28%) 4W: 7.20 ( 6.05-12.40) 1% in, proj. out (#9-out)
(20%) 3W: 5.60 ( 4.00-11.40) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(11%) 2W: 4.05 ( 2.50- 7.80) out, proj. out
( 4%) 1W: 3.05 ( 1.50- 4.70) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWWWWW: 17.35 (16.70-19.70) 100% in, 91% home, 4% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#11), Holy Name (3-1) 18%
( 5%) WWWLWW: 13.30 (12.70-15.65) 93% in, 12% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), St Marys Memorial (2-2) 19%
(18%) LWWLWW: 9.70 ( 9.10-12.50) 11% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Revere (3-0) 18%
(14%) LWLLWW: 7.15 ( 6.55-10.30) out
( 6%) LWWLWL: 7.15 ( 6.05-10.40) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Rocky River (3-1) 100%
( 9%) LWLLWL: 4.55 ( 4.00- 7.30) out
( 6%) LWLLLL: 4.05 ( 3.00- 6.25) out
( 4%) LLLLLL: 3.05 ( 1.50- 4.70) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 115.8, #249, D3 #51), 16% (likely needs 6-4), 3% home (likely needs 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 3 (0-3, 111.1, #279, D3 #54), 9% (bubble if 5-5), 2% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 2-8
Week 2 (0-2, 121.8, #209, D3 #41), 41% (bubble if 5-5), 24% home (maybe if 6-4), 6% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (0-1, 120.1, #208, D3 #42), 41% (bubble if 5-5), 23% home (maybe if 6-4), 7% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 132.5, #141, D3 #33), 56% (bubble if 6-4), 39% home (maybe if 7-3), 17% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #11 at 6-4
Last season 127.6