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Rankings
#53 of 107 in Division 6
#9 of 27 in Region 24
Strength of schedule #47 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #80 in D6 (-462 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 30-27 H #484 Fairland (1-3) D5 R19, pick: L by 19 (19%), perf. rating 84
08/29 L 13-12 H #468 Portsmouth (2-2) D5 R19, pick: W by 14 (76%), perf. rating 80
09/05 L 49-34 H #346 Hillsboro (3-1) D3 R12, pick: L by 2 (46%), perf. rating 79
09/12 L 46-22 A #326 Chillicothe (2-2) D3 R12, pick: L by 15 (19%), perf. rating 72
09/19 A #511 Waverly (0-4) D4 R15, pick: W by 1 (52%)
09/26 H #598 Minford (2-2) D5 R19, pick: W by 22 (92%)
10/03 A #376 Valley (4-0) D5 R19, pick: L by 19 (11%)
10/10 A #544 Northwest (McDermott) (2-2) D5 R19, pick: W by 7 (68%)
10/17 H #676 Oak Hill (0-4) D5 R19, pick: W by 37 (99%)
10/24 A #94 Wheelersburg (4-0) D5 R19, pick: L by 42 (1%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
6.75 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#11 seed in R24 playoffs
Playoff chances now
69% (bubble if 4-6), 19% home (maybe if 5-5)
Depending on the next game
Win: 8.70 ( 2.75-18.30) 89% in, 33% home, 2% bye, proj. #9 (#1-out), Anna (3-1) 16%
Lose: 5.85 ( 0.95-14.50) 48% in, 5% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Dayton Christian (3-1) 16%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 9%) 6W: 12.55 (10.30-14.50) 100% in, 97% home, 12% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#11), Blanchester (1-3) 14%
(32%) 5W: 9.05 ( 6.85-13.00) 99% in, 31% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Anna (3-1) 19%
(34%) 4W: 6.75 ( 4.10-10.75) 76% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Dayton Christian (3-1) 16%
(20%) 3W: 4.45 ( 2.70- 8.00) 8% in, proj. out (#9-out), St Bernard-Elmwood Pl. (3-1) 20%
( 4%) 2W: 2.70 ( 1.40- 5.00) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 9%) WWWWWL: 12.55 (10.30-14.50) 100% in, 97% home, 12% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#11), Blanchester (1-3) 14%
( 3%) LWWWWL: 10.30 ( 8.85-12.20) 100% in, 68% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#11), Dayton Christian (3-1) 19%
(28%) WWLWWL: 9.05 ( 6.85-11.00) 99% in, 26% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Anna (3-1) 19%
( 2%) WLLWWL: 6.90 ( 5.00- 9.20) 85% in, 2% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Coldwater (2-2) 15%
(21%) LWLWWL: 6.80 ( 4.95- 9.60) 84% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Dayton Christian (3-1) 16%
(10%) WWLLWL: 5.90 ( 4.10- 8.20) 56% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), St Bernard-Elmwood Pl. (3-1) 21%
(16%) LWLLWL: 4.05 ( 2.70- 6.35) 5% in, proj. out (#10-out), St Bernard-Elmwood Pl. (3-1) 21%
( 4%) LLLLWL: 2.70 ( 1.40- 4.10) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 82.0, #477, D6 #53), 69% (bubble if 4-6), 19% home (maybe if 5-5), proj. #11 at 4-6
Week 3 (1-2, 89.8, #428, D6 #43), 90% (bubble if 3-7), 60% home (maybe if 5-5), 13% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. #7 at 5-5
Week 2 (1-1, 98.4, #378, D6 #35), 95% (bubble if 3-7), 80% home (maybe if 4-6), 50% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. #5 at 6-4
Week 1 (1-0, 103.0, #338, D6 #27), 96% (bubble if 3-7), 86% home (maybe if 5-5), 59% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #4 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 95.0, #402, D6 #37), 67% (bubble if 4-6), 47% home (maybe if 5-5), 22% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #8 at 5-5
Last season 89.0