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Rankings
#33 of 101 in Division 4
#9 of 26 in Region 15
Strength of schedule #78 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #15 in D4 (+170 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 33-14 H #73 New Lexington (2-0) D4 R15, pick: L by 24 (14%), perf. rating 115
08/28 W 20-14 H #245 Colonel Crawford (1-1) D6 R23, pick: L by 9 (33%), perf. rating 123
09/04 H #663 Lakewood (Hebron) (0-2) D4 R15, pick: W by 49 (99%)
09/11 A #411 Logan Elm (1-1) D5 R19, pick: W by 22 (90%)
09/18 H #291 Bloom-Carroll (1-1) D3 R11, pick: W by 9 (71%)
09/25 A #543 Liberty Union (0-2) D6 R23, pick: W by 33 (98%)
10/02 A #392 Circleville (1-1) D4 R15, pick: W by 19 (89%)
10/09 A #424 Amanda-Clearcreek (0-2) D5 R19, pick: W by 23 (93%)
10/16 H #594 Alexander (2-0) D4 R15, pick: W by 40 (99%)
10/23 H #288 Hamilton Township (1-1) D2 R7, pick: W by 9 (72%)
Regular season projections
8-2 record
5.08 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#10 seed in R15 playoffs
Playoff chances now
84% (bubble if 6-4), 54% home (maybe if 8-2), 5% bye
Depending on the next game
Win: 5.14 ( 1.66- 6.28) 85% in, 54% home, 6% bye, proj. #8 (#1-out), East Liverpool (2-0) 10%
Based on eventual number of wins
(39%) 9W: 5.92 ( 5.61- 6.28) 100% in, 98% home, 14% bye, proj. #6 (#1-#9), bye 14%
(30%) 8W: 5.08 ( 4.68- 5.70) 99% in, 52% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), East Liverpool (2-0) 11%
(17%) 7W: 4.29 ( 3.94- 4.97) 79% in, 3% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Union Local (2-0) 15%
( 9%) 6W: 3.58 ( 3.18- 4.21) 24% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Bishop Ready (2-0) 13%
( 4%) 5W: 2.88 ( 2.64- 3.34) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(39%) WWWWWWWW: 5.92 ( 5.61- 6.28) 100% in, 98% home, 14% bye, proj. #6 (#1-#9), bye 14%
( 3%) WWWWWLWW: 5.27 ( 5.01- 5.70) 100% in, 73% home, proj. #8 (#5-#11), Philo (1-1) 13%
( 3%) WLWWWWWW: 5.22 ( 4.97- 5.49) 100% in, 68% home, proj. #8 (#5-#11), East Liverpool (2-0) 14%
( 4%) WWWWLWWW: 5.11 ( 4.86- 5.49) 99% in, 36% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Circleville (1-1) 14%
( 8%) WWLWWWWW: 5.08 ( 4.78- 5.43) 100% in, 54% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#12), Beaver Local (2-0) 12%
(11%) WWWWWWWL: 4.97 ( 4.68- 5.27) 99% in, 42% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Philo (1-1) 11%
( 5%) WWLWWWWL: 4.18 ( 3.94- 4.49) 77% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Beaver Local (2-0) 12%
( 2%) WWLWLWWL: 3.44 ( 3.17- 3.70) 8% in, proj. out (#11-out), Beaver Local (2-0) 33%
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (1-1, 117.1, #236, D4 #33), 79% (bubble if 7-3), 45% home (maybe if 8-2), 3% bye, proj. #9 at 8-2
Week 1 (0-1, 110.8, #279, D4 #36), 54% (bubble if 6-4), 28% home (maybe if 8-2), 4% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 111.6, #271, D4 #35), 48% (bubble if 6-4), 27% home (maybe if 7-3), 9% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 6-4
Last season 116.0