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Rankings
#49 of 105 in Division 4
#12 of 28 in Region 15
Strength of schedule #32 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #64 in D4 (-230 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 26-6 A #148 New Lexington (4-0) D4 R15, pick: L by 25 (13%), perf. rating 104
08/29 L 28-14 A #224 Colonel Crawford (4-0) D6 R23, pick: L by 20 (16%), perf. rating 100
09/05 W 39-6 A #484 Fairland (1-3) D5 R19, pick: L by 7 (35%), perf. rating 132
09/12 L 35-7 A #197 Hamilton Township (4-0) D3 R11, pick: L by 9 (30%), perf. rating 84
09/19 H #470 Logan Elm (0-4) D4 R15, pick: W by 24 (93%)
09/26 A #187 Bloom-Carroll (2-2) D3 R11, pick: L by 21 (9%)
10/03 H #490 Liberty Union (3-1) D6 R23, pick: W by 25 (95%)
10/10 H #342 Circleville (4-0) D4 R15, pick: W by 4 (60%)
10/17 H #259 Amanda-Clearcreek (1-3) D5 R19, pick: L by 7 (32%)
10/24 H John Marshall WV (3-0) D2
Regular season projections
4-6 record
8.99 Harbin points (divisor 98)
out of R15 playoffs
Playoff chances now
26% (bubble if 5-5), 5% home (maybe if 6-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 9.50 ( 1.46-22.17) 27% in, 6% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#3-out), Indian Creek (4-0) 12%
Lose: 6.56 ( 0.96-19.48) 6% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 9%) 6W: 15.66 (12.90-19.48) 99% in, 45% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Johnstown (2-2) 12%
(27%) 5W: 12.14 ( 9.29-17.65) 55% in, 2% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Indian Creek (4-0) 15%
(36%) 4W: 8.99 ( 5.88-13.53) 2% in, proj. out (#10-out)
(21%) 3W: 5.58 ( 3.24-10.84) out, proj. out
( 5%) 2W: 3.71 ( 1.46- 8.14) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 4%) WLWWWW: 16.11 (13.46-18.87) 99% in, 56% home, proj. #8 (#5-out), Johnstown (2-2) 15%
( 6%) WLWWLW: 13.37 (10.97-15.97) 85% in, 6% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Indian Creek (4-0) 16%
(15%) WLWWWL: 11.76 ( 9.29-15.00) 42% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Indian Creek (4-0) 16%
( 5%) WLWLLW: 9.81 ( 7.87-11.95) 5% in, proj. out (#10-out), Indian Creek (4-0) 22%
(22%) WLWWLL: 9.04 ( 7.11-11.75) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out), Indian Creek (4-0) 18%
( 7%) WLWLWL: 7.82 ( 5.88-10.22) out
(17%) WLWLLL: 5.48 ( 3.65- 8.03) out
( 2%) WLLLLL: 3.25 ( 1.46- 5.64) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 105.8, #324, D4 #49), 26% (bubble if 5-5), 5% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 4-6
Week 3 (1-2, 114.4, #262, D4 #42), 65% (bubble if 5-5), 28% home (maybe if 6-4), 5% bye (likely needs 8-2), proj. #11 at 5-5
Week 2 (0-2, 100.8, #357, D4 #55), 35% (bubble if 5-5), 13% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (0-1, 100.8, #352, D4 #51), 41% (bubble if 5-5), 18% home (maybe if 6-4), 3% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 101.6, #344, D4 #56), 38% (bubble if 5-5), 22% home (maybe if 6-4), 10% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 100.6