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Rankings
#38 of 72 in Division 1
#11 of 18 in Region 2
Strength of schedule #60 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #25 in D1 (+53 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 38-7 H Pine-Richland PA (3-1) D2
08/29 W 17-7 A #253 Lima Senior (2-2) D2 R8, pick: W by 20 (84%), perf. rating 132
09/05 W 28-7 H #263 Springfield (Holland) (2-2) D2 R6, pick: W by 17 (83%), perf. rating 144
09/12 W 41-14 A #307 Sylvania Southview (1-3) D2 R6, pick: W by 20 (88%), perf. rating 150
09/19 A #157 Fremont Ross (2-2) D2 R6, pick: W by 6 (65%)
09/26 H #199 Clay (2-2) D2 R6, pick: W by 18 (87%)
10/03 A #44 Perrysburg (3-1) D1 R1, pick: L by 17 (14%)
10/10 A #26 Whitmer (3-1) D1 R1, pick: L by 25 (5%)
10/17 H #530 Sylvania Northview (1-3) D2 R6, pick: W by 44 (99%)
10/24 H #86 Anthony Wayne (3-1) D2 R6, pick: L by 3 (42%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
19.75 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#3 seed in R2 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 90% home (maybe if 5-5), 55% bye (maybe if 6-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 23.20 (13.95-35.30) 100% in, 99% home, 74% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#11), bye 74%
Lose: 15.70 ( 9.95-30.70) 99% in, 71% home, 18% bye, proj. #7 (#1-out), bye 18%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 9W: 34.10 (31.40-35.30) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#2), bye 100%
(10%) 8W: 28.60 (25.75-32.45) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#3), bye 100%
(27%) 7W: 23.80 (20.05-28.25) 100% home, 98% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#6), bye 98%
(34%) 6W: 19.75 (16.90-24.45) 100% in, 99% home, 48% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#10), bye 48%
(21%) 5W: 15.70 (12.30-21.65) 99% in, 78% home, 3% bye, proj. #7 (#3-out), Hilliard Darby (2-2) 12%
( 7%) 4W: 12.25 ( 9.95-16.65) 98% in, 16% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Lebanon (3-1) 12%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWWWWW: 34.10 (31.40-35.30) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#2), bye 100%
( 7%) WWWLWW: 28.60 (25.75-30.75) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#3), bye 100%
(21%) WWLLWW: 23.80 (21.50-26.10) 100% home, 98% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#6), bye 98%
(22%) WWLLWL: 19.75 (17.35-22.00) 100% in, 99% home, 48% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#9), bye 48%
( 8%) LWLLWW: 19.25 (16.90-22.10) 100% in, 99% home, 43% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#10), bye 43%
( 4%) WLLLWL: 16.75 (15.05-18.45) 100% in, 93% home, 7% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#11), Hilliard Darby (2-2) 14%
(15%) LWLLWL: 15.20 (12.30-18.20) 99% in, 73% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Hilliard Darby (2-2) 11%
( 7%) LLLLWL: 12.25 ( 9.95-14.60) 97% in, 13% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Lebanon (3-1) 12%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 138.9, #113, D1 #38), likely in, 90% home (maybe if 5-5), 55% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. #3 at 6-4
Week 3 (2-1, 138.0, #109, D1 #35), likely in, 80% home (likely needs 5-5), 45% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. #5 at 6-4
Week 2 (1-1, 132.2, #139, D1 #42), 91% (bubble if 3-7), 64% home (maybe if 5-5), 30% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. #6 at 5-5
Week 1 (0-1, 133.7, #131, D1 #44), 88% (bubble if 3-7), 66% home (maybe if 5-5), 32% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. #4 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 133.7, #132, D1 #44), 87% (bubble if 4-6), 61% home (maybe if 5-5), 27% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #5 at 6-4
Last season 125.9