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Rankings
#12 of 72 in Division 1
#3 of 18 in Region 1
Strength of schedule #65 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #19 in D1 (+183 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 30-0 A #161 Dublin Coffman (1-3) D1 R2, pick: W by 2 (54%), perf. rating 176
08/29 L 32-7 H Detroit King MI (2-1) D3
09/05 W 48-0 H #307 Sylvania Southview (1-3) D2 R6, pick: W by 40 (99%), perf. rating 169
09/12 W 27-6 A #157 Fremont Ross (2-2) D2 R6, pick: W by 28 (95%), perf. rating 164
09/19 A #263 Springfield (Holland) (2-2) D2 R6, pick: W by 36 (99%)
09/26 H #86 Anthony Wayne (3-1) D2 R6, pick: W by 22 (92%)
10/03 A #530 Sylvania Northview (1-3) D2 R6, pick: W by 49 (99%)
10/10 H #113 Findlay (3-1) D1 R2, pick: W by 25 (95%)
10/17 A #199 Clay (2-2) D2 R6, pick: W by 32 (98%)
10/24 H #44 Perrysburg (3-1) D1 R1, pick: W by 12 (79%)
Regular season projections
9-1 record
30.55 Harbin points (divisor 99)
#3 seed in R1 playoffs
Playoff chances now
appears locked in and likely home, 85% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 30.04 (11.84-34.34) 100% in, 99% home, 85% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#9), bye 85%
Lose: 24.15 (12.29-29.60) 100% in, 98% home, 57% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#10), bye 57%
Based on eventual number of wins
(65%) 9W: 30.55 (28.13-34.34) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#5), bye 99%
(27%) 8W: 25.51 (22.63-31.87) 100% home, 69% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#7), bye 69%
( 7%) 7W: 20.92 (18.85-28.04) 100% home, 17% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#8), John Marshall (1-3) 26%
( 1%) 6W: 17.19 (14.21-22.39) 100% in, 99% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#9), John Marshall (1-3) 25%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(65%) WWWWWW: 30.55 (28.13-34.34) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#5), bye 99%
( 1%) WWWWLW: 26.97 (25.10-29.90) 100% home, 98% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#5), bye 98%
( 4%) WLWWWW: 25.76 (23.94-29.04) 100% home, 92% bye, proj. #3 (#2-#6), bye 92%
( 3%) WWWLWW: 25.66 (23.08-28.89) 100% home, 93% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#6), bye 93%
(17%) WWWWWL: 25.10 (22.63-28.59) 100% home, 56% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#7), bye 56%
( 2%) WLWWWL: 20.76 (19.05-23.24) 100% home, 11% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#8), John Marshall (1-3) 23%
( 2%) WWWLWL: 20.61 (18.85-23.74) 100% home, 10% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#8), John Marshall (1-3) 31%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 164.7, #26, D1 #12), appears locked in and likely home, 85% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #3 at 9-1
Week 3 (2-1, 168.4, #17, D1 #8), appears locked in and likely home, 92% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #1 at 9-1
Week 2 (1-1, 169.0, #17, D1 #7), appears locked in and likely home, 89% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #1 at 9-1
Week 1 (1-0, 166.5, #24, D1 #10), likely in, 98% home, 76% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #1 at 9-1
Week 0 (0-0, 152.3, #51, D1 #24), 95% (bubble if 3-7), 80% home (maybe if 5-5), 46% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #4 at 7-3
Last season 154.8