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Rankings
#65 of 106 in Division 5
#16 of 26 in Region 18
Strength of schedule #46 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #62 in D5 (-212 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 25-24 A #499 East Knox (1-3) D6 R23, pick: L by 3 (44%), perf. rating 83
08/29 L 34-14 A #319 Fredericktown (4-0) D5 R18, pick: L by 18 (18%), perf. rating 79
09/05 L 35-14 H #234 Grandview Heights (4-0) D6 R23, pick: L by 26 (7%), perf. rating 84
09/12 L 20-0 H #170 Edison (Milan) (3-1) D5 R18, pick: L by 36 (2%), perf. rating 96
09/19 A #569 Zanesville (0-4) D3 R11, pick: W by 15 (83%)
09/26 H #570 Newark Catholic (1-3) D7 R27, pick: W by 19 (89%)
10/03 A #219 Johnstown (2-2) D4 R15, pick: L by 30 (3%)
10/10 H #423 Utica (1-3) D5 R18, pick: L by 5 (37%)
10/17 A #254 Heath (1-3) D4 R15, pick: L by 28 (3%)
10/24 H #673 Lakewood (Hebron) (0-4) D4 R15, pick: W by 37 (99%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
3.80 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R18 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 5-5 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 4.35 ( 1.30-12.95) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
Lose: 2.90 ( 0.75-11.85) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 5%) 6W: 8.10 ( 6.80-11.85) 8% in, proj. out (#10-out)
(31%) 5W: 5.45 ( 4.55- 9.00) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(44%) 4W: 3.80 ( 2.90- 7.40) out, proj. out
(15%) 3W: 2.90 ( 1.80- 5.75) out, proj. out
( 4%) 2W: 1.65 ( 1.25- 3.65) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWWWLW: 8.45 ( 7.45-10.95) 10% in, proj. out (#11-out), Edison (Milan) (3-1) 19%
( 3%) WWLWWW: 7.95 ( 6.80-10.45) 6% in, proj. out (#11-out), Liberty-Benton (4-0) 33%
(28%) WWLWLW: 5.30 ( 4.55- 7.80) out
( 3%) LWLWLW: 4.55 ( 4.00- 6.65) out
(39%) WWLLLW: 3.50 ( 2.90- 6.40) out
( 9%) LWLLLW: 2.90 ( 2.35- 5.05) out
( 5%) WLLLLW: 2.20 ( 1.80- 4.30) out
( 3%) LLLLLW: 1.65 ( 1.25- 3.45) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 85.1, #454, D5 #65), 1% (must have at least 5-5 for any chance), proj. out at 4-6
Week 3 (1-2, 80.2, #498, D5 #73), 1% (must have at least 5-5 for any chance), proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (1-1, 80.3, #497, D5 #72), 6% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (1-0, 87.0, #459, D5 #66), 23% (bubble if 6-4), 5% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 85.4, #485, D5 #66), 31% (bubble if 5-5), 12% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 86.6