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Rankings
#58 of 105 in Division 5
#20 of 25 in Region 18
Strength of schedule #43 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #75 in D5 (-403 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 27-0 A #132 West Geauga (3-0) D4 R13, pick: L by 13 (28%), perf. rating 95
08/28 L 42-6 H #190 Columbia (3-0) D6 R21, pick: L by 9 (33%), perf. rating 68
09/04 L 35-31 A #458 Orange (2-1) D4 R13, pick: W by 5 (61%), perf. rating 82
09/10 H #450 Chagrin Falls (2-1) D5 R17, pick: W by 2 (55%)
09/18 H #367 Cuyahoga Heights (2-1) D7 R25, pick: L by 10 (27%)
09/25 H #488 Berkshire (1-2) D5 R17, pick: W by 8 (69%)
10/02 A #348 Conneaut (3-0) D5 R17, pick: L by 18 (12%)
10/09 H #522 Crestwood (0-3) D5 R17, pick: W by 12 (79%)
10/16 A #47 Kirtland (2-1) D6 R21, pick: L by 46 (1%)
10/23 A #529 Rootstown (2-1) D6 R21, pick: W by 10 (74%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
5.75 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R18 playoffs
Playoff chances now
10% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 8.35 ( 1.45-20.00) 18% in, 2% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Archbold (3-0) 11%
Lose: 3.00 ( 0.00-15.65) 1% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 6%) 6W: 15.15 (13.40-17.00) 95% in, 15% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Bluffton (3-0) 11%
(14%) 5W: 11.60 ( 9.60-15.00) 26% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Archbold (3-0) 16%
(20%) 4W: 8.35 ( 6.80-12.50) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(22%) 3W: 5.75 ( 3.85- 9.45) out, proj. out
(18%) 2W: 3.40 ( 1.70- 7.30) out, proj. out
(13%) 1W: 1.70 ( 0.45- 4.05) out, proj. out
( 6%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 6%) WWWWWLW: 15.15 (13.40-16.45) 95% in, 15% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Bluffton (3-0) 11%
( 4%) WLWWWLW: 11.85 (10.70-12.80) 26% in, proj. out (#9-out), Archbold (3-0) 18%
( 8%) WWWLWLW: 11.50 ( 9.60-13.20) 20% in, proj. out (#9-out), Archbold (3-0) 16%
(10%) WLWLWLW: 8.05 ( 6.95-10.15) out
( 4%) WLLLWLW: 5.70 ( 4.55- 7.45) out
( 7%) LLWLWLW: 5.05 ( 3.85- 6.95) out
( 5%) LLLLWLL: 0.80 ( 0.45- 2.95) out
( 6%) LLLLLLL: 0.00 out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (0-3, 87.2, #449, D5 #58), 10% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (0-2, 88.2, #438, D5 #62), 17% (bubble if 6-4), 3% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (0-1, 96.3, #393, D5 #54), 41% (bubble if 6-4), 18% home (maybe if 7-3), 3% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 104.2, #323, D5 #40), 53% (bubble if 6-4), 31% home (maybe if 7-3), 10% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 6-4
Last season 108.4