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Rankings
#59 of 106 in Division 5
#15 of 26 in Region 18
Strength of schedule #26 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #69 in D5 (-265 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 34-0 A #270 Centerburg (3-1) D6 R23, pick: L by 11 (31%), perf. rating 64
08/29 W 27-8 A #430 Danville (2-2) D7 R27, pick: L by 30 (7%), perf. rating 121
09/05 L 27-20 H #319 Fredericktown (4-0) D5 R18, pick: L by 6 (37%), perf. rating 95
09/12 L 31-0 H #241 Ridgewood (4-0) D6 R23, pick: L by 16 (17%), perf. rating 69
09/19 A #165 Granville (3-1) D3 R11, pick: L by 31 (3%)
09/26 H #673 Lakewood (Hebron) (0-4) D4 R15, pick: W by 41 (99%)
10/03 H #570 Newark Catholic (1-3) D7 R27, pick: W by 24 (94%)
10/10 A #454 Northridge (1-3) D5 R18, pick: W by 5 (63%)
10/17 A #219 Johnstown (2-2) D4 R15, pick: L by 26 (4%)
10/24 H #254 Heath (1-3) D4 R15, pick: L by 21 (8%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
6.30 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R18 playoffs
Playoff chances now
5% (likely needs 6-4), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 10.40 ( 5.25-17.45) 44% in, 2% home, proj. out (#6-out), Edison (Milan) (3-1) 17%
Lose: 5.85 ( 1.15-13.85) 3% in, proj. out (#9-out), Liberty-Benton (4-0) 24%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 6W: 12.40 (10.10-15.00) 88% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Fredericktown (4-0) 16%
(13%) 5W: 9.15 ( 6.85-12.55) 19% in, proj. out (#10-out), Liberty-Benton (4-0) 25%
(46%) 4W: 6.30 ( 4.45-10.80) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(34%) 3W: 4.05 ( 2.75- 8.15) out, proj. out
( 4%) 2W: 2.80 ( 1.65- 4.95) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) LWWWWW: 12.30 (10.10-13.85) 87% in, proj. #11 (#9-out), Liberty-Benton (4-0) 19%
( 2%) WWWWLL: 10.10 ( 8.25-12.55) 30% in, proj. out (#10-out), Liberty-Benton (4-0) 22%
( 3%) LWWWWL: 9.35 ( 7.35-11.30) 22% in, proj. out (#10-out), Liberty-Benton (4-0) 25%
( 8%) LWWWLW: 8.85 ( 6.85-11.50) 15% in, proj. out (#10-out), Liberty-Benton (4-0) 26%
(42%) LWWWLL: 6.30 ( 4.45- 8.15) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Norwayne (2-2) 50%
( 3%) LWLWLL: 4.90 ( 3.00- 6.40) out
(31%) LWWLLL: 4.05 ( 2.75- 5.95) out
( 4%) LWLLLL: 2.80 ( 1.65- 4.25) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 91.9, #423, D5 #59), 5% (likely needs 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 3 (1-2, 97.1, #388, D5 #49), 14% (bubble if 5-5), 2% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (1-1, 96.6, #387, D5 #49), 41% (bubble if 5-5), 10% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 5-5
Week 1 (0-1, 82.3, #495, D5 #75), 10% (bubble if 5-5), 2% home, proj. out at 2-8
Week 0 (0-0, 94.1, #413, D5 #53), 37% (bubble if 5-5), 17% home (maybe if 6-4), 4% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 90.9