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Rankings
#39 of 102 in Division 3
#14 of 26 in Region 9
Strength of schedule #41 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #41 in D3 (-24 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 32-14 H #142 Benedictine (4-3) D3 R9, pick: L by 15 (25%), perf. rating 102
08/28 W 7-0 H #195 Holy Name (4-3) D3 R10, pick: L by 4 (42%), perf. rating 132
09/04 W 26-21 A #204 Hawken (6-2) D3 R9, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 132
09/12 L 14-7 A #188 Lake Catholic (4-4) D3 R9, pick: L by 7 (34%), perf. rating 116
09/18 W 40-0 H #517 John Hay (2-6) D2 R5, pick: W by 36 (99%), perf. rating 135
09/26 L 25-18 A #236 University School (6-2) D3 R9, pick: W by 10 (74%), perf. rating 109
10/03 W 59-42 A #306 Cleveland Central Cath. (5-3) D4 R13, pick: W by 10 (74%), perf. rating 137
10/09 W 55-14 H #582 John Marshall (1-7) D2 R6, pick: W by 43 (99%), perf. rating 122
10/16 H #340 Rhodes (5-3) D2 R6, pick: W by 21 (92%)
10/23 A #206 Maple Heights (5-3) D3 R9, pick: L by 2 (44%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
19.11 Harbin points (divisor 98)
#7 seed in R9 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 79% home (maybe if 6-4), 10% bye (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 20.03 (17.02-24.66) 100% in, 85% home, 11% bye, proj. #7 (#1-#12), Hawken (6-2) 17%
Lose: 15.86 (13.77-20.49) 87% in, 17% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Salem (7-1) 19%
Based on eventual number of wins
(41%) 7W: 22.67 (20.48-24.66) 100% in, 99% home, 25% bye, proj. #6 (#1-#9), bye 25%
(53%) 6W: 19.11 (17.02-21.21) 100% in, 73% home, proj. #8 (#5-#12), Hawken (6-2) 28%
( 6%) 5W: 15.35 (13.77-16.88) 82% in, proj. #11 (#9-out), Salem (7-1) 26%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(41%) WW: 22.67 (20.48-24.66) 100% in, 99% home, 25% bye, proj. #6 (#1-#9), bye 25%
(51%) WL: 19.11 (17.02-21.21) 100% in, 73% home, proj. #8 (#5-#12), Hawken (6-2) 27%
( 2%) LW: 18.91 (17.28-20.49) 100% in, 66% home, proj. #8 (#6-#11), Hawken (6-2) 36%
( 6%) LL: 15.35 (13.77-16.88) 82% in, proj. #11 (#9-out), Salem (7-1) 26%
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (4-3, 122.4, #202, D3 #36), likely in, 72% home (maybe if 6-4), 4% bye, proj. #6 at 7-3
Week 6 (3-3, 118.9, #230, D3 #42), 87% (bubble if 5-5), 54% home (maybe if 6-4), 6% bye, proj. #9 at 6-4
Week 5 (3-2, 120.1, #217, D3 #36), 95% (bubble if 5-5), 82% home (maybe if 6-4), 41% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #5 at 7-3
Week 4 (2-2, 119.0, #226, D3 #36), 96% (likely needs 5-5), 86% home (likely needs 6-4), 48% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #4 at 7-3
Week 3 (2-1, 120.4, #222, D3 #40), 93% (bubble if 5-5), 81% home (maybe if 6-4), 48% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #4 at 7-3
Week 2 (1-1, 115.6, #248, D3 #42), 64% (bubble if 6-4), 42% home (maybe if 7-3), 16% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #8 at 6-4
Week 1 (0-1, 115.1, #246, D3 #48), 58% (bubble if 5-5), 35% home (maybe if 7-3), 13% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #12 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 118.8, #212, D3 #40), 59% (bubble if 5-5), 39% home (maybe if 7-3), 18% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #9 at 6-4
Last season 110.2