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Rankings
#13 of 107 in Division 3
#5 of 27 in Region 9
Strength of schedule #56 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #8 in D3 (+283 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 33-6 A #403 Cleveland Central Cath. (3-1) D3 R10, pick: W by 31 (92%), perf. rating 137
08/29 W 44-0 H #409 Berkshire (2-2) D5 R17, pick: W by 25 (90%), perf. rating 154
09/05 W 42-13 A #169 Gilmour Academy (1-3) D3 R9, pick: L by 19 (14%), perf. rating 174
09/12 W 49-48 H #118 Geneva (3-1) D3 R9, pick: W by 14 (80%), perf. rating 137
09/19 A #131 Madison (2-2) D3 R9, pick: W by 7 (67%)
09/26 H #255 West Geauga (2-2) D4 R13, pick: W by 27 (96%)
10/03 A #539 Lutheran West (0-4) D3 R10, pick: W by 45 (99%)
10/10 H #453 Orange (1-3) D4 R13, pick: W by 42 (99%)
10/17 A #361 Harvey (2-2) D3 R9, pick: W by 33 (99%)
10/24 H #95 Perry (2-2) D4 R13, pick: W by 4 (60%)
Regular season projections
9-1 record
27.45 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#2 seed in R9 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in and likely home, 86% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 30.58 (19.30-34.85) 100% in, 99% home, 98% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#9), bye 98%
Lose: 24.30 (14.15-30.45) 99% in, 97% home, 61% bye, proj. #4 (#1-out), bye 62%
Based on eventual number of wins
(42%) 10W: 31.45 (28.10-34.85) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(35%) 9W: 27.45 (23.65-32.25) 100% home, 98% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#7), bye 98%
(20%) 8W: 23.50 (19.90-28.35) 100% in, 99% home, 48% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#10), bye 48%
( 3%) 7W: 20.15 (16.95-24.30) 99% in, 76% home, 5% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), East (Akron) (2-2) 12%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(42%) WWWWWW: 31.45 (28.10-34.85) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#4), bye 100%
( 1%) WLWWWW: 28.15 (25.30-31.20) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#5), bye 99%
(13%) LWWWWW: 27.45 (23.65-30.45) 100% home, 98% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#7), bye 98%
(19%) WWWWWL: 27.35 (23.90-31.10) 100% home, 98% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#7), bye 98%
( 1%) WLWWWL: 24.35 (21.65-26.30) 100% home, 70% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#7), bye 70%
(16%) LWWWWL: 23.30 (19.90-27.40) 100% in, 99% home, 42% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#10), bye 42%
( 2%) LLWWWL: 19.80 (17.45-22.85) 99% in, 70% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), East (Akron) (2-2) 12%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (4-0, 144.4, #81, D3 #13), likely in and likely home, 86% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #2 at 9-1
Week 3 (3-0, 145.0, #83, D3 #14), 95% (bubble if 7-3), 84% home (likely needs 8-2), 60% bye (likely needs 9-1), proj. #1 at 9-1
Week 2 (2-0, 124.2, #193, D3 #38), 50% (likely needs 7-3), 28% home (likely needs 8-2), 10% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #12 at 7-3
Week 1 (1-0, 118.0, #228, D3 #49), 37% (bubble if 7-3), 20% home (maybe if 7-3), 7% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 117.7, #224, D3 #46), 43% (bubble if 6-4), 25% home (maybe if 7-3), 10% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #12 at 6-4
Last season 119.0