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Rankings
#46 of 104 in Division 3
#12 of 26 in Region 10
Strength of schedule #31 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #76 in D3 (-320 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 52-6 A #582 Normandy (0-2) D2 R6, pick: W by 28 (90%), perf. rating 130
08/28 L 7-0 A #248 Gilmour Academy (1-1) D3 R9, pick: W by 4 (58%), perf. rating 107
09/04 A #158 Madison (1-1) D3 R9, pick: L by 17 (17%)
09/18 A #384 Cleveland Central Cath. (1-1) D4 R13, pick: W by 15 (83%)
09/24 H #171 Notre Dame-Cath. Latin (1-1) D3 R9, pick: L by 11 (24%)
10/02 A #55 Cuyahoga Val. Christian (1-1) D3 R9, pick: L by 32 (2%)
10/09 H #298 Elyria Catholic (1-1) D3 R10, pick: W by 6 (65%)
10/16 H #137 Lake Catholic (1-1) D3 R9, pick: L by 16 (15%)
10/23 A #275 Padua Franciscan (0-2) D3 R10, pick: L by 1 (47%)
Regular season projections
4-5 record
3.17 Harbin points (divisor 90)
#10 seed in R10 playoffs
Playoff chances now
39% (bubble if 4-5), 19% home (maybe if 5-4), 5% bye (likely needs 7-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 4.23 ( 1.52- 7.36) 80% in, 56% home, 20% bye, proj. #8 (#1-out), bye 25%
Lose: 2.37 ( 0.67- 6.36) 31% in, 12% home, 2% bye, proj. out (#1-out), Tiffin Columbian (2-0) 10%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 7W: 5.97 ( 5.67- 6.36) 100% home, 84% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 84%
( 9%) 6W: 4.99 ( 4.52- 5.41) 100% in, 98% home, 18% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#9), bye 18%
(16%) 5W: 4.07 ( 3.63- 4.51) 98% in, 43% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Tiffin Columbian (2-0) 11%
(22%) 4W: 3.17 ( 2.80- 3.71) 48% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Tiffin Columbian (2-0) 13%
(24%) 3W: 2.31 ( 2.01- 2.81) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(18%) 2W: 1.52 ( 1.28- 1.86) out, proj. out
( 7%) 1W: 0.67 ( 0.67- 0.98) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWWLWWW: 5.95 ( 5.67- 6.28) 100% home, 83% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 83%
( 4%) LWWLWWW: 4.98 ( 4.52- 5.30) 100% in, 97% home, 16% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#9), bye 16%
( 5%) LWWLWLW: 4.01 ( 3.63- 4.43) 99% in, 42% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Tiffin Columbian (2-0) 13%
( 8%) LWLLWLW: 3.12 ( 2.81- 3.52) 56% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Tiffin Columbian (2-0) 14%
( 6%) LWLLLLW: 2.32 ( 2.02- 2.60) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Ontario (2-0) 100%
(11%) LWLLWLL: 2.30 ( 2.01- 2.66) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Buchtel (0-2) 20%
(11%) LWLLLLL: 1.57 ( 1.36- 1.86) out
( 7%) LLLLLLL: 0.67 ( 0.67- 0.98) out
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (1-1, 113.5, #265, D3 #46), 45% (bubble if 4-5), 22% home (maybe if 5-4), 6% bye (maybe if 6-3), proj. #9 at 4-5
Week 1 (1-0, 120.6, #213, D3 #40), 76% (bubble if 4-5), 54% home (maybe if 5-4), 24% bye (maybe if 7-2), proj. #6 at 5-4
Week 0 (0-0, 114.2, #252, D3 #49), 52% (bubble if 4-5), 30% home (maybe if 5-4), 11% bye (maybe if 7-2), proj. out at 4-5
Last season 119.2