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Rankings
#9 of 107 in Division 6
#2 of 27 in Region 21
Strength of schedule #6 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #22 in D6 (0 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 A #246 Padua Franciscan (0-0) D3 R10, pick: W by 14 (74%)
08/28 A Jeannette PA (0-0) D7
09/04 H #310 Youngstown (0-0) D2 R5, pick: W by 25 (92%)
09/11 H #419 Lakeview (0-0) D5 R17, pick: W by 32 (97%)
09/18 H #296 Struthers (0-0) D4 R13, pick: W by 24 (93%)
09/25 H #82 Poland Seminary (0-0) D4 R13, pick: L by 10 (26%)
10/02 A #110 Girard (0-0) D5 R17, pick: L by 8 (30%)
10/09 A #542 Niles McKinley (0-0) D4 R13, pick: W by 40 (99%)
10/16 A #121 Canfield (0-0) D3 R9, pick: L by 6 (35%)
10/23 A #235 Hubbard (0-0) D4 R13, pick: W by 13 (80%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
15.39 Harbin points (divisor 98)
#3 seed in R21 playoffs
Playoff chances now
81% (bubble if 5-5), 62% home (maybe if 6-4), 36% bye (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 16.25 ( 0.55-32.65) 91% in, 74% home, 45% bye, proj. #5 (#1-out), bye 50%
Lose: 9.07 ( 0.00-26.70) 54% in, 30% home, 11% bye, proj. #12 (#1-out), bye 20%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 5%) 10W: 25.46 (19.18-32.65) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#5), bye 99%
(13%) 9W: 22.46 (14.35-30.82) 100% in, 99% home, 97% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#9), bye 97%
(18%) 8W: 18.84 (11.04-27.67) 99% in, 99% home, 73% bye, proj. #3 (#1-out), bye 73%
(19%) 7W: 15.39 ( 8.55-23.50) 99% in, 88% home, 27% bye, proj. #6 (#1-out), bye 27%
(17%) 6W: 12.23 ( 5.65-19.63) 94% in, 48% home, 3% bye, proj. #9 (#2-out), Wickliffe (0-0) 9%
(13%) 5W: 9.49 ( 4.64-16.22) 66% in, 13% home, 1% bye, proj. #11 (#4-out), Wickliffe (0-0) 10%
( 8%) 4W: 7.00 ( 3.12-13.89) 26% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Wickliffe (0-0) 11%
( 5%) 3W: 4.92 ( 1.81-10.12) 4% in, proj. out (#10-out)
( 2%) 2W: 2.79 ( 0.95- 7.58) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
( 1%) 1W: 1.42 ( 0.45- 4.58) out, proj. out
Most likely first round opponents
Wickliffe (0-0) 4%
Pymatuning Valley (0-0) 4%
Columbiana (0-0) 4%
Columbia (0-0) 4%
Most likely second round opponents
Kirtland (0-0) 13%
Hillsdale (0-0) 12%
United (0-0) 9%
Columbia (0-0) 8%
Wickliffe (0-0) 8%
Weekly summary info
Week 0 (0-0, 105.7, #311, D6 #27), 66% (bubble if 5-5), 43% home (maybe if 6-4), 19% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #9 at 6-4
Last season 125.2