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Rankings
#7 of 106 in Division 5
#2 of 28 in Region 17
Strength of schedule #5 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #9 in D5 (+325 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 49-13 H #24 Lake (Uniontown) (4-0) D2 R5, pick: W by 2 (54%), perf. rating 111
08/29 W 48-21 A #227 Salem (2-2) D4 R13, pick: W by 25 (90%), perf. rating 161
09/05 W 48-7 A #429 Barberton (1-3) D2 R6, pick: W by 31 (96%), perf. rating 154
09/12 W 46-0 A #378 Lakeview (2-2) D5 R17, pick: W by 26 (94%), perf. rating 163
09/19 A #387 Struthers (0-4) D4 R13, pick: W by 33 (98%)
09/26 A #126 Poland Seminary (3-1) D5 R17, pick: W by 3 (58%)
10/03 H #137 Girard (4-0) D5 R17, pick: W by 9 (72%)
10/10 H #546 Niles McKinley (0-4) D4 R13, pick: W by 46 (99%)
10/17 H #68 Cardinal Mooney (2-2) D5 R17, pick: L by 4 (40%)
10/24 H #201 Hubbard (4-0) D4 R13, pick: W by 20 (91%)
Regular season projections
8-2 record
21.53 Harbin points (divisor 99)
#3 seed in R17 playoffs
Playoff chances now
98% (bubble if 5-5), 88% home (maybe if 6-4), 61% bye (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 20.62 ( 7.04-28.44) 99% in, 89% home, 62% bye, proj. #3 (#1-out), bye 63%
Lose: 15.02 ( 6.60-24.91) 90% in, 57% home, 26% bye, proj. #8 (#1-out), bye 29%
Based on eventual number of wins
(23%) 9W: 25.16 (21.77-28.44) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(31%) 8W: 21.53 (17.94-26.83) 100% home, 95% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 95%
(26%) 7W: 17.49 (14.06-22.24) 100% in, 99% home, 31% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#11), bye 31%
(14%) 6W: 13.50 (10.07-18.66) 99% in, 58% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Liberty (3-1) 16%
( 5%) 5W: 9.62 ( 7.04-15.43) 74% in, 2% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Garfield (3-1) 16%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(23%) WWWWWW: 25.16 (21.77-28.44) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(18%) WWWWLW: 21.88 (19.81-24.76) 100% home, 98% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 98%
( 9%) WLWWWW: 20.82 (18.04-23.95) 100% home, 92% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 92%
( 3%) WWLWWW: 20.36 (17.94-22.89) 100% home, 87% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 87%
(13%) WLWWLW: 17.59 (15.37-20.57) 100% in, 99% home, 32% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#10), bye 32%
( 6%) WWLWLW: 17.49 (15.32-19.86) 100% in, 99% home, 31% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#9), bye 31%
( 8%) WLLWLW: 13.50 (11.48-16.23) 99% in, 55% home, proj. #8 (#5-out), Liberty (3-1) 17%
( 4%) WLLWLL: 9.57 ( 7.04-11.84) 70% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Garfield (3-1) 16%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 141.2, #98, D5 #7), 98% (bubble if 5-5), 88% home (maybe if 6-4), 61% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #3 at 8-2
Week 3 (2-1, 135.2, #127, D5 #10), 96% (bubble if 4-6), 83% home (maybe if 6-4), 49% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #4 at 7-3
Week 2 (1-1, 132.2, #141, D5 #14), 89% (bubble if 5-5), 69% home (maybe if 6-4), 36% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #5 at 7-3
Week 1 (0-1, 129.6, #153, D5 #14), 73% (bubble if 5-5), 56% home (maybe if 6-4), 32% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #6 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 148.3, #65, D5 #4), 90% (bubble if 5-5), 79% home (maybe if 6-4), 61% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #2 at 8-2
Last season 149.1