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Rankings
#31 of 105 in Division 4
#6 of 28 in Region 15
Strength of schedule #66 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #52 in D4 (-142 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 70-26 H #569 Zanesville (0-4) D3 R11, pick: W by 34 (94%), perf. rating 129
08/29 W 42-14 A #270 Centerburg (3-1) D6 R23, pick: L by 1 (48%), perf. rating 156
09/05 L 33-14 H #165 Granville (3-1) D3 R11, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 99
09/12 L 35-34 A #297 Mount Vernon (2-2) D2 R7, pick: W by 17 (84%), perf. rating 110
09/19 H #233 Watkins Memorial (1-3) D2 R7, pick: W by 4 (60%)
09/26 A #254 Heath (1-3) D4 R15, pick: W by 3 (58%)
10/03 H #454 Northridge (1-3) D5 R18, pick: W by 30 (97%)
10/10 A #673 Lakewood (Hebron) (0-4) D4 R15, pick: W by 49 (99%)
10/17 H #423 Utica (1-3) D5 R18, pick: W by 26 (96%)
10/24 A #570 Newark Catholic (1-3) D7 R27, pick: W by 37 (99%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
13.55 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#10 seed in R15 playoffs
Playoff chances now
73% (likely needs 7-3), 27% home (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 15.70 ( 8.30-19.15) 92% in, 42% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Circleville (4-0) 13%
Lose: 10.80 ( 4.75-15.40) 44% in, 4% home, proj. out (#6-out), East (Columbus) (3-1) 15%
Based on eventual number of wins
(37%) 8W: 16.35 (13.50-19.15) 99% in, 65% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), Circleville (4-0) 16%
(35%) 7W: 13.55 (11.20-17.75) 90% in, 8% home, proj. #11 (#5-out), Indian Creek (4-0) 13%
(22%) 6W: 10.70 ( 8.30-15.15) 17% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Unioto (4-0) 16%
( 4%) 5W: 8.60 ( 6.80-12.00) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(37%) WWWWWW: 16.35 (13.50-19.15) 99% in, 65% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), Circleville (4-0) 16%
( 1%) WWWWLW: 14.05 (11.70-17.00) 97% in, 20% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), East (Columbus) (3-1) 21%
(15%) LWWWWW: 13.55 (11.45-15.40) 97% in, 11% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), East (Columbus) (3-1) 16%
(17%) WLWWWW: 13.30 (11.20-15.40) 82% in, 2% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Indian Creek (4-0) 14%
( 1%) WLWWLW: 11.05 ( 8.30-12.70) 23% in, proj. out (#10-out), Unioto (4-0) 22%
(19%) LLWWWW: 10.70 ( 8.70-12.60) 12% in, proj. out (#9-out), Unioto (4-0) 18%
( 3%) LLWWLW: 8.60 ( 7.00- 9.65) out
( 1%) LLLWWW: 8.00 ( 6.80- 9.50) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Jonathan Alder (4-0) 100%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 119.6, #219, D4 #31), 73% (likely needs 7-3), 27% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 7-3
Week 3 (2-1, 127.8, #174, D4 #21), 91% (bubble if 7-3), 59% home (maybe if 8-2), 3% bye, proj. #9 at 8-2
Week 2 (2-0, 132.6, #134, D4 #16), 95% (bubble if 6-4), 82% home (maybe if 8-2), 46% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #4 at 9-1
Week 1 (1-0, 115.5, #243, D4 #31), 63% (bubble if 7-3), 36% home (maybe if 8-2), 10% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. #8 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 111.5, #264, D4 #38), 55% (bubble if 7-3), 32% home (maybe if 8-2), 12% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #10 at 7-3
Last season 116.2