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Rankings
#25 of 102 in Division 4
#6 of 26 in Region 15
Strength of schedule #47 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #26 in D4 (+75 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 34-14 H #216 Vermilion (6-1) D5 R18, pick: W by 7 (63%), perf. rating 148
08/28 W 50-0 H #368 Centerburg (5-2) D6 R23, pick: W by 7 (64%), perf. rating 160
09/04 L 35-12 A #175 Granville (5-2) D3 R11, pick: W by 15 (80%), perf. rating 94
09/11 W 37-30 H #295 Mount Vernon (2-5) D2 R7, pick: W by 26 (94%), perf. rating 118
09/18 L 28-13 A #114 Licking Valley (7-0) D3 R11, pick: L by 12 (23%), perf. rating 117
09/25 W 42-28 H #372 Newark Catholic (5-2) D6 R23, pick: W by 24 (94%), perf. rating 117
10/02 W 54-13 A #431 Utica (1-6) D5 R19, pick: W by 26 (95%), perf. rating 153
10/09 H #243 Heath (5-2) D4 R15, pick: W by 10 (74%)
10/16 H #613 Lakewood (Hebron) (0-7) D4 R15, pick: W by 46 (99%)
10/23 A #470 Northridge (3-4) D6 R23, pick: W by 31 (98%)
Regular season projections
8-2 record
21.05 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#4 seed in R15 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 98% home (maybe if 6-4), 67% bye (likely needs 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 21.05 (16.70-22.90) 100% home, 89% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#7), bye 89%
Lose: 17.35 (13.65-19.35) 99% in, 93% home, 4% bye, proj. #6 (#3-out), Union Local (6-1) 17%
Based on eventual number of wins
(72%) 8W: 21.05 (18.90-22.90) 100% home, 89% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#7), bye 89%
(27%) 7W: 17.40 (15.20-22.00) 100% in, 95% home, 8% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#12), Union Local (6-1) 16%
( 1%) 6W: 15.60 (13.85-18.80) 96% in, 56% home, proj. #8 (#5-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(72%) WWW: 21.05 (18.90-22.90) 100% home, 89% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#7), bye 89%
( 1%) WWL: 18.95 (16.85-20.80) 100% home, 65% bye, proj. #4 (#3-#7), bye 65%
(25%) LWW: 17.35 (15.20-19.35) 100% in, 95% home, 4% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#12), Union Local (6-1) 17%
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (5-2, 125.1, #182, D4 #25), likely in, 98% home (maybe if 6-4), 67% bye (likely needs 8-2), proj. #4 at 8-2
Week 6 (4-2, 121.5, #208, D4 #29), likely in, 91% home (maybe if 6-4), 51% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #4 at 8-2
Week 5 (3-2, 121.3, #206, D4 #28), 98% (likely in at 6-4 or better), 82% home (maybe if 7-3), 34% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #4 at 8-2
Week 4 (3-1, 122.6, #199, D4 #25), 97% (bubble if 5-5), 81% home (maybe if 7-3), 39% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #4 at 8-2
Week 3 (2-1, 129.8, #148, D4 #15), 98% (bubble if 6-4), 88% home (maybe if 7-3), 37% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #3 at 8-2
Week 2 (2-0, 142.5, #81, D4 #7), likely in, 96% home (maybe if 7-3), 72% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #3 at 9-1
Week 1 (1-0, 124.5, #180, D4 #19), 88% (bubble if 6-4), 70% home (maybe if 7-3), 33% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #3 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 117.3, #223, D4 #24), 66% (bubble if 5-5), 47% home (maybe if 7-3), 22% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #4 at 7-3
Last season 118.4