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Rankings
#58 of 107 in Division 3
#13 of 26 in Region 11
Strength of schedule #54 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #61 in D3 (-255 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 28-6 H #99 Licking Valley (4-0) D3 R11, pick: L by 12 (28%), perf. rating 106
08/29 L 42-14 A #233 Watkins Memorial (1-3) D2 R7, pick: W by 4 (58%), perf. rating 78
09/05 W 21-19 A #397 Licking Heights (0-4) D2 R7, pick: W by 12 (75%), perf. rating 101
09/12 W 56-14 H #474 Maysville (2-2) D4 R15, pick: W by 4 (59%), perf. rating 143
09/19 H #301 John Glenn (3-1) D3 R11, pick: W by 2 (55%)
09/26 A #648 River View (0-4) D5 R18, pick: W by 41 (99%)
10/03 A #291 Philo (3-1) D4 R15, pick: L by 3 (42%)
10/10 H #349 Morgan (2-2) D5 R19, pick: W by 8 (70%)
10/17 H #84 Tri-Valley (3-1) D3 R11, pick: L by 28 (3%)
10/24 A #148 New Lexington (4-0) D4 R15, pick: L by 23 (7%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
10.65 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#12 seed in R11 playoffs
Playoff chances now
34% (bubble if 5-5), 5% home (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 12.25 ( 5.50-24.30) 58% in, 9% home, 1% bye, proj. #12 (#4-out), Bloom-Carroll (2-2) 16%
Lose: 6.95 ( 2.60-20.00) 6% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), Bloom-Carroll (2-2) 19%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 6%) 7W: 18.25 (14.60-20.95) 100% in, 57% home, proj. #8 (#5-#12), Athens (4-0) 18%
(21%) 6W: 14.15 (11.30-17.90) 93% in, 4% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Bloom-Carroll (2-2) 17%
(30%) 5W: 10.65 ( 7.95-15.50) 25% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Granville (3-1) 18%
(27%) 4W: 7.40 ( 5.10-12.45) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(15%) 3W: 4.55 ( 2.60- 9.40) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWWWWL: 18.25 (15.35-20.85) 100% in, 55% home, proj. #8 (#5-#12), Athens (4-0) 20%
(17%) WWWWLL: 14.00 (11.30-17.55) 93% in, 4% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Granville (3-1) 18%
( 5%) WWWLLL: 10.70 ( 8.80-13.25) 33% in, proj. out (#9-out), Granville (3-1) 19%
(15%) WWLWLL: 10.50 ( 8.40-14.25) 28% in, proj. out (#9-out), Granville (3-1) 18%
( 8%) LWWWLL: 10.30 ( 7.95-13.40) 11% in, proj. out (#10-out), Hamilton Township (4-0) 23%
( 8%) WWLLLL: 7.55 ( 5.50-10.40) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Hamilton Township (4-0) 43%
(14%) LWLWLL: 7.10 ( 5.10-10.15) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Hamilton Township (4-0) 50%
(15%) LWLLLL: 4.55 ( 2.60- 7.55) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 109.4, #298, D3 #58), 34% (bubble if 5-5), 5% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #12 at 5-5
Week 3 (1-2, 95.4, #399, D3 #77), 10% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (0-2, 99.5, #367, D3 #72), 22% (bubble if 5-5), 7% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (0-1, 114.1, #261, D3 #54), 52% (bubble if 6-4), 27% home (maybe if 7-3), 6% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #12 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 120.5, #207, D3 #44), 55% (bubble if 6-4), 34% home (maybe if 8-2), 14% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #8 at 7-3
Last season 114.0