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Rankings
#37 of 104 in Division 3
#9 of 25 in Region 11
Strength of schedule #62 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #42 in D3 (0 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 28-13 A #85 Licking Valley (2-0) D3 R11, pick: L by 21 (17%), perf. rating 121
08/28 W 21-14 H #308 Watkins Memorial (0-2) D2 R7, pick: W by 21 (85%), perf. rating 116
09/04 H #327 Licking Heights (0-2) D1 R3, pick: W by 17 (83%)
09/11 A #489 Maysville (1-1) D3 R11, pick: W by 31 (97%)
09/18 H #676 River View (0-2) D5 R19, pick: W by 49 (99%)
09/25 A #423 Morgan (1-1) D5 R19, pick: W by 25 (94%)
10/02 A #353 John Glenn (1-1) D4 R15, pick: W by 17 (86%)
10/09 H #206 Philo (1-1) D4 R15, pick: W by 1 (53%)
10/16 A #153 Tri-Valley (1-1) D3 R11, pick: L by 11 (23%)
10/23 H #73 New Lexington (2-0) D4 R15, pick: L by 22 (7%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
4.97 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#10 seed in R11 playoffs
Playoff chances now
80% (bubble if 5-5), 39% home (maybe if 7-3), 8% bye (likely needs 9-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 4.89 ( 1.92- 7.08) 87% in, 45% home, 10% bye, proj. #9 (#1-out), Athens (1-1) 11%
Lose: 3.32 ( 1.16- 6.12) 40% in, 9% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Athens (1-1) 13%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 5%) 9W: 6.74 ( 6.28- 7.08) 100% home, 86% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 86%
(17%) 8W: 5.84 ( 5.42- 6.24) 100% in, 98% home, 20% bye, proj. #6 (#1-#10), bye 20%
(29%) 7W: 4.97 ( 4.53- 5.49) 99% in, 54% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), Athens (1-1) 14%
(26%) 6W: 4.16 ( 3.66- 4.80) 88% in, 5% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Athens (1-1) 13%
(14%) 5W: 3.42 ( 2.96- 4.09) 35% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Athens (1-1) 14%
( 6%) 4W: 2.70 ( 2.20- 3.16) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 5%) WWWWWWWW: 6.74 ( 6.28- 7.08) 100% home, 86% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 86%
( 4%) WWWWWWLW: 5.86 ( 5.42- 6.13) 100% in, 97% home, 17% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#9), bye 17%
(12%) WWWWWWWL: 5.83 ( 5.42- 6.21) 100% in, 98% home, 20% bye, proj. #6 (#1-#10), bye 20%
( 6%) WWWWWLWL: 4.96 ( 4.59- 5.33) 100% in, 60% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#11), Athens (1-1) 14%
(18%) WWWWWWLL: 4.96 ( 4.53- 5.37) 99% in, 47% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Tri-Valley (1-1) 15%
(16%) WWWWWLLL: 4.13 ( 3.67- 4.63) 86% in, 3% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Granville (1-1) 12%
( 5%) WWWWLLLL: 3.42 ( 3.12- 3.82) 40% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Jonathan Alder (2-0) 17%
( 3%) LWWWLLLL: 2.58 ( 2.20- 2.90) out
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (1-1, 120.3, #216, D3 #37), 77% (bubble if 5-5), 41% home (maybe if 7-3), 11% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #8 at 7-3
Week 1 (0-1, 123.2, #196, D3 #34), 74% (bubble if 5-5), 45% home (maybe if 7-3), 15% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 123.7, #186, D3 #32), 69% (bubble if 5-5), 47% home (maybe if 7-3), 22% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #12 at 6-4
Last season 127.6