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Rankings
#14 of 107 in Division 3
#2 of 26 in Region 11
Strength of schedule #67 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #38 in D3 (-22 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 48-28 A #414 Meadowbrook (1-3) D5 R19, pick: W by 39 (96%), perf. rating 125
08/29 L 30-21 A #165 Granville (3-1) D3 R11, pick: W by 5 (60%), perf. rating 118
09/05 W 35-0 H #172 Clinton-Massie (3-1) D4 R16, pick: L by 22 (11%), perf. rating 177
09/12 W 41-7 H #349 Morgan (2-2) D5 R19, pick: W by 36 (98%), perf. rating 152
09/19 H #148 New Lexington (4-0) D4 R15, pick: W by 14 (81%)
09/26 A #474 Maysville (2-2) D4 R15, pick: W by 41 (99%)
10/03 A #648 River View (0-4) D5 R18, pick: W by 49 (99%)
10/10 H #291 Philo (3-1) D4 R15, pick: W by 30 (98%)
10/17 A #298 Sheridan (2-2) D3 R11, pick: W by 28 (97%)
10/24 H #301 John Glenn (3-1) D3 R11, pick: W by 30 (98%)
Regular season projections
9-1 record
27.40 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#2 seed in R11 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in and likely home, 79% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 27.30 (16.00-29.90) 100% in, 99% home, 92% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#9), bye 92%
Lose: 22.45 (10.20-25.00) 99% in, 95% home, 26% bye, proj. #5 (#2-out), bye 26%
Based on eventual number of wins
(71%) 9W: 27.40 (23.30-29.90) 100% home, 97% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 97%
(24%) 8W: 23.05 (19.65-28.80) 100% in, 99% home, 41% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#9), bye 41%
( 4%) 7W: 19.45 (15.55-25.10) 100% in, 90% home, 5% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#10), Athens (4-0) 16%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(71%) WWWWWW: 27.40 (23.30-29.90) 100% home, 97% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 97%
( 3%) WWWWLW: 24.05 (21.15-27.05) 100% home, 51% bye, proj. #4 (#3-#8), bye 51%
( 2%) WWWLWW: 23.55 (21.00-26.20) 100% home, 50% bye, proj. #4 (#3-#8), bye 50%
( 2%) WWWWWL: 23.55 (20.30-26.25) 100% home, 56% bye, proj. #4 (#3-#7), bye 56%
(15%) LWWWWW: 22.70 (19.65-25.00) 100% in, 99% home, 33% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#9), bye 33%
( 1%) LWWWLW: 19.38 (17.20-22.25) 100% in, 92% home, 2% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#10), Sheridan (2-2) 18%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 144.2, #84, D3 #14), likely in and likely home, 79% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #2 at 9-1
Week 3 (2-1, 150.5, #55, D3 #9), likely in and likely home, 84% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #4 at 9-1
Week 2 (1-1, 130.0, #156, D3 #29), 90% (bubble if 5-5), 71% home (likely needs 7-3), 30% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #6 at 7-3
Week 1 (1-0, 135.6, #124, D3 #25), 89% (bubble if 5-5), 73% home (maybe if 7-3), 46% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #3 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 142.1, #94, D3 #19), 84% (bubble if 6-4), 69% home (maybe if 7-3), 44% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #4 at 8-2
Last season 142.4