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Rankings
#16 of 104 in Division 3
#4 of 25 in Region 11
Strength of schedule #64 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #49 in D3 (-60 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 56-22 H #434 Meadowbrook (2-2) D5 R19, pick: W by 35 (95%), perf. rating 138
08/28 L 24-21 H #176 Granville (2-2) D3 R11, pick: W by 21 (85%), perf. rating 119
09/04 W 57-28 A #230 Clinton-Massie (1-3) D4 R16, pick: L by 1 (48%), perf. rating 164
09/11 L 31-29 A #148 Philo (3-1) D4 R15, pick: W by 21 (89%), perf. rating 129
09/18 H #493 Morgan (1-3) D5 R19, pick: W by 41 (99%)
09/25 A #85 New Lexington (4-0) D4 R15, pick: L by 6 (35%)
10/02 H #467 Maysville (1-3) D3 R11, pick: W by 39 (99%)
10/09 A #665 River View (0-4) D5 R19, pick: W by 49 (99%)
10/16 H #204 Sheridan (3-1) D3 R11, pick: W by 18 (88%)
10/23 A #339 John Glenn (2-2) D4 R15, pick: W by 28 (97%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
16.30 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#9 seed in R11 playoffs
Playoff chances now
91% (bubble if 6-4), 46% home (maybe if 7-3), 4% bye
Depending on the next game
Win: 16.55 ( 5.85-24.00) 91% in, 47% home, 4% bye, proj. #9 (#2-out), Athens (3-1) 14%
Lose: 13.70 ( 5.45-21.30) 63% in, 13% home, proj. #11 (#5-out), South (Columbus) (4-0) 15%
Based on eventual number of wins
(30%) 8W: 20.85 (17.25-24.00) 100% in, 98% home, 14% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#11), bye 14%
(52%) 7W: 16.30 (12.45-22.65) 99% in, 32% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Athens (3-1) 16%
(15%) 6W: 12.60 ( 9.10-18.75) 57% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#6-out), Dover (2-2) 17%
( 2%) 5W: 10.10 ( 6.70-14.95) 16% in, proj. out (#9-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(30%) WWWWWW: 20.85 (17.25-24.00) 100% in, 98% home, 14% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#11), bye 14%
( 1%) WWWWWL: 18.20 (15.35-20.60) 100% in, 74% home, proj. #7 (#5-#12), Granville (2-2) 16%
( 3%) WWWWLW: 16.75 (13.65-19.35) 98% in, 29% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#4-out), Jackson (3-1) 13%
(48%) WLWWWW: 16.25 (12.45-19.30) 99% in, 31% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Athens (3-1) 16%
( 1%) LLWWWW: 14.43 (11.90-16.00) 90% in, 2% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Granville (2-2) 16%
( 3%) WLWWWL: 13.43 (10.05-16.25) 84% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Dover (2-2) 17%
(11%) WLWWLW: 12.25 ( 9.10-15.55) 45% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Dover (2-2) 19%
( 1%) WLWWLL: 9.75 ( 6.70-12.55) 6% in, proj. out (#12-out), Jackson (3-1) 25%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 137.7, #106, D3 #16), 91% (bubble if 6-4), 46% home (maybe if 7-3), 4% bye, proj. #9 at 7-3
Week 3 (2-1, 145.9, #67, D3 #7), likely in, 88% home (maybe if 7-3), 47% bye (likely needs 9-1), proj. #6 at 8-2
Week 2 (1-1, 129.5, #153, D3 #25), 80% (bubble if 5-5), 54% home (maybe if 7-3), 20% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #7 at 7-3
Week 1 (1-0, 139.0, #99, D3 #14), 94% (bubble if 5-5), 83% home (maybe if 7-3), 59% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #2 at 9-1
Week 0 (0-0, 138.1, #104, D3 #14), 89% (bubble if 5-5), 76% home (maybe if 6-4), 53% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #3 at 8-2
Last season 137.4