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Rankings
#25 of 72 in Division 1
#7 of 18 in Region 3
Strength of schedule #30 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #18 in D1 (+222 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 45-14 A #25 Pickerington Central (3-1) D1 R3, pick: W by 7 (63%), perf. rating 121
08/29 W 31-24 A #130 Groveport Madison (1-3) D1 R3, pick: W by 6 (62%), perf. rating 148
09/05 W 20-14 H #61 Olentangy Liberty (1-3) D1 R3, pick: L by 9 (31%), perf. rating 156
09/12 L 35-21 A #10 Olentangy Orange (4-0) D1 R3, pick: L by 31 (3%), perf. rating 159
09/19 H #161 Dublin Coffman (1-3) D1 R2, pick: W by 21 (91%)
09/26 H #504 Central Crossing (0-4) D1 R3, pick: W by 47 (99%)
10/03 A #104 New Albany (1-3) D2 R7, pick: W by 7 (67%)
10/10 H #183 Westerville Central (2-2) D1 R3, pick: W by 24 (94%)
10/17 A #198 Grove City (2-2) D1 R3, pick: W by 23 (93%)
10/24 H #17 Pickerington North (3-1) D1 R3, pick: L by 19 (11%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
18.50 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#6 seed in R3 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 83% home (maybe if 5-5), 5% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 17.80 ( 7.00-30.10) 99% in, 85% home, 5% bye, proj. #7 (#1-out), Westerville Central (2-2) 16%
Lose: 14.00 ( 5.15-24.90) 95% in, 55% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), Westerville Central (2-2) 17%
Based on eventual number of wins
(10%) 8W: 24.25 (21.05-30.10) 100% home, 45% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#7), bye 45%
(46%) 7W: 18.50 (14.60-26.30) 100% in, 99% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#2-#10), Westerville Central (2-2) 19%
(30%) 6W: 15.30 (11.45-22.40) 100% in, 80% home, proj. #8 (#5-#12), Westerville Central (2-2) 16%
(10%) 5W: 12.70 ( 8.90-17.95) 99% in, 27% home, proj. #9 (#6-out), Westerville North (1-3) 16%
( 3%) 4W: 9.60 ( 7.00-13.45) 85% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Westerville North (1-3) 25%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(10%) WWWWWW: 24.25 (21.05-30.10) 100% home, 45% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#7), bye 45%
(43%) WWWWWL: 18.50 (14.60-23.05) 100% in, 99% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#10), Westerville Central (2-2) 19%
( 3%) LWWWWL: 16.60 (13.40-19.85) 100% in, 95% home, proj. #7 (#5-#9), Westerville Central (2-2) 18%
(19%) WWLWWL: 15.25 (11.45-19.75) 100% in, 85% home, proj. #8 (#6-#10), Westerville Central (2-2) 17%
( 3%) WWWLWL: 14.75 (11.55-17.95) 100% in, 57% home, proj. #8 (#6-#12), Westerville Central (2-2) 17%
( 4%) WWWWLL: 14.70 (12.05-19.15) 100% in, 56% home, proj. #8 (#6-#12), Groveport Madison (1-3) 16%
( 3%) LWLWWL: 13.40 (10.20-17.25) 100% in, 60% home, proj. #8 (#6-#11), Olentangy Berlin (0-4) 16%
( 3%) WWLWLL: 12.05 ( 8.90-15.25) 99% in, 12% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Grove City (2-2) 23%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 148.9, #62, D1 #25), likely in, 83% home (maybe if 5-5), 5% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #6 at 7-3
Week 3 (2-1, 145.9, #82, D1 #31), 98% (bubble if 3-7), 61% home (maybe if 6-4), 7% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #8 at 6-4
Week 2 (1-1, 144.3, #82, D1 #31), 85% (bubble if 3-7), 37% home (maybe if 6-4), 8% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 5-5
Week 1 (0-1, 146.3, #75, D1 #31), 69% (bubble if 4-6), 35% home (maybe if 6-4), 10% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 164.4, #22, D1 #9), 89% (bubble if 4-6), 72% home (maybe if 6-4), 47% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #3 at 7-3
Last season 163.6