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Rankings
#41 of 72 in Division 1
#10 of 18 in Region 3
Strength of schedule #51 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #52 in D1 (-272 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 17-10 A #114 Hilliard Bradley (3-1) D1 R2, pick: W by 2 (54%), perf. rating 130
08/29 L 31-24 H #62 Gahanna Lincoln (2-2) D1 R3, pick: L by 6 (38%), perf. rating 137
09/05 L 36-10 H #37 Big Walnut (3-1) D2 R7, pick: L by 16 (19%), perf. rating 117
09/12 W 35-13 A #278 Newark (2-2) D1 R3, pick: W by 17 (84%), perf. rating 146
09/19 H #269 Lancaster (1-3) D1 R3, pick: W by 23 (92%)
09/26 H #135 Teays Valley (3-1) D2 R7, pick: W by 3 (57%)
10/03 A #322 Reynoldsburg (0-4) D1 R3, pick: W by 25 (95%)
10/10 H #25 Pickerington Central (3-1) D1 R3, pick: L by 25 (5%)
10/17 A #488 Logan (0-4) D2 R7, pick: W by 38 (99%)
10/24 H #54 Canal Winchester (4-0) D2 R7, pick: L by 13 (20%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
12.40 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#9 seed in R3 playoffs
Playoff chances now
78% (bubble if 4-6), 28% home (maybe if 5-5)
Depending on the next game
Win: 12.40 ( 4.35-23.95) 82% in, 31% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#3-out), Gahanna Lincoln (2-2) 15%
Lose: 5.55 ( 2.40-20.55) 31% in, 4% home, proj. out (#6-out), Gahanna Lincoln (2-2) 17%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 7W: 23.75 (23.65-23.95) 100% home, 16% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#8), bye 16%
(17%) 6W: 18.05 (17.45-23.10) 100% in, 95% home, proj. #7 (#5-#10), Olentangy Liberty (1-3) 16%
(39%) 5W: 12.40 (12.30-19.35) 99% in, 25% home, proj. #9 (#6-out), Gahanna Lincoln (2-2) 17%
(33%) 4W: 8.10 ( 8.10-13.65) 58% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Olentangy (3-1) 19%
( 8%) 3W: 5.55 ( 4.90-10.50) 4% in, proj. out (#9-out)
( 1%) 2W: 3.65 ( 3.00- 7.35) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) WWWWWW: 23.75 (23.65-23.95) 100% home, 16% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#8), bye 16%
( 2%) WWWWWL: 18.10 (17.45-18.75) 100% in, 95% home, proj. #7 (#5-#9), Grove City (2-2) 17%
(14%) WWWLWW: 18.05 (17.90-20.05) 100% in, 94% home, proj. #7 (#5-#10), Olentangy Liberty (1-3) 16%
( 5%) WLWLWW: 13.75 (13.05-15.10) 100% in, 37% home, proj. #9 (#6-#12), Westerville Central (2-2) 17%
(32%) WWWLWL: 12.40 (12.30-14.35) 99% in, 21% home, proj. #9 (#6-out), Gahanna Lincoln (2-2) 18%
(28%) WLWLWL: 8.10 ( 8.10-10.55) 54% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Olentangy (3-1) 21%
( 3%) WLLLWL: 6.20 ( 5.55- 8.65) 3% in, proj. out (#12-out), Upper Arlington (4-0) 40%
( 4%) LLWLWL: 4.95 ( 4.90- 7.50) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Upper Arlington (4-0) 100%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 135.1, #130, D1 #41), 78% (bubble if 4-6), 28% home (maybe if 5-5), proj. #9 at 5-5
Week 3 (0-3, 130.6, #153, D1 #46), 78% (bubble if 3-7), 26% home (maybe if 5-5), proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (0-2, 131.5, #145, D1 #44), 80% (bubble if 3-7), 34% home (maybe if 5-5), 3% bye (likely needs 8-2), proj. #9 at 5-5
Week 1 (0-1, 138.4, #114, D1 #39), 76% (bubble if 4-6), 46% home (maybe if 6-4), 16% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 142.7, #91, D1 #34), 78% (bubble if 4-6), 55% home (maybe if 6-4), 28% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #9 at 6-4
Last season 146.8