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Rankings
#28 of 80 in Division 1
#8 of 20 in Region 3
Strength of schedule #44 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #42 in D1 (-35 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 35-3 A #14 Gahanna Lincoln (2-0) D1 R3, pick: W by 7 (63%), perf. rating 130
08/28 L 28-0 A #2 Bishop Watterson (2-0) D2 R7, pick: L by 37 (3%), perf. rating 148
09/04 H #32 Pickerington North (1-1) D1 R3, pick: L by 16 (19%)
09/11 A #557 Logan (0-2) D2 R7, pick: W by 47 (99%)
09/18 H #69 Canal Winchester (1-1) D2 R7, pick: W by 2 (55%)
09/25 A #259 Lancaster (0-2) D1 R3, pick: W by 26 (95%)
10/02 H #202 Newark (2-0) D1 R3, pick: W by 24 (94%)
10/09 H #183 Groveport Madison (1-1) D1 R3, pick: W by 22 (93%)
10/16 A #135 Teays Valley (1-1) D2 R7, pick: W by 11 (77%)
10/23 H #175 Reynoldsburg (1-1) D1 R3, pick: W by 21 (92%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
5.22 Harbin points (divisor 99)
#7 seed in R3 playoffs
Playoff chances now
81% (likely needs 5-5), 52% home (maybe if 6-4), 7% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 7.10 ( 2.21- 7.60) 98% in, 90% home, 35% bye, proj. #5 (#1-out), bye 35%
Lose: 5.16 ( 0.60- 6.45) 77% in, 44% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#3-out), Newark (2-0) 10%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 9%) 8W: 7.29 ( 6.93- 7.60) 100% home, 59% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#7), bye 59%
(28%) 7W: 6.26 ( 5.82- 6.76) 100% in, 99% home, 4% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), Westerville Central (2-0) 10%
(27%) 6W: 5.22 ( 4.90- 5.71) 99% in, 54% home, proj. #8 (#5-out), Westerville Central (2-0) 10%
(19%) 5W: 4.24 ( 3.90- 4.74) 86% in, 2% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Olentangy Orange (1-1) 10%
(10%) 4W: 3.27 ( 2.99- 3.77) 8% in, proj. out (#11-out)
( 5%) 3W: 2.33 ( 2.14- 2.87) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 9%) WWWWWWWW: 7.29 ( 6.93- 7.60) 100% home, 59% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#7), bye 59%
(22%) LWWWWWWW: 6.26 ( 6.12- 6.45) 100% in, 99% home, 3% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), Westerville Central (2-0) 10%
( 3%) WWLWWWWW: 6.19 ( 5.94- 6.50) 100% home, 10% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#8), bye 10%
( 6%) LWWWWWLW: 5.24 ( 5.11- 5.60) 100% in, 57% home, proj. #8 (#6-#11), Newark (2-0) 11%
( 2%) LWWWWWWL: 5.22 ( 5.04- 5.48) 99% in, 42% home, proj. #9 (#6-out), Westerville Central (2-0) 12%
(13%) LWLWWWWW: 5.21 ( 5.09- 5.51) 100% in, 59% home, proj. #8 (#5-#12), Newark (2-0) 11%
( 6%) LWLWWWLW: 4.25 ( 4.07- 4.49) 91% in, 2% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Newark (2-0) 11%
( 2%) LWLWWLLW: 3.24 ( 3.12- 3.49) 14% in, proj. out (#11-out), Olentangy Berlin (1-1) 21%
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (0-2, 145.5, #72, D1 #28), 78% (likely needs 5-5), 51% home (maybe if 6-4), 9% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #8 at 6-4
Week 1 (0-1, 143.0, #81, D1 #33), 71% (bubble if 5-5), 38% home (maybe if 6-4), 6% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 161.5, #26, D1 #12), 91% (bubble if 4-6), 77% home (maybe if 6-4), 48% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #4 at 7-3
Last season 164.0