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Rankings
#50 of 72 in Division 1
#12 of 18 in Region 3
Strength of schedule #56 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #54 in D1 (-285 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 42-14 A #135 Teays Valley (3-1) D2 R7, pick: W by 21 (83%), perf. rating 178
08/29 W 45-41 H #200 Westland (2-2) D1 R2, pick: W by 20 (84%), perf. rating 127
09/05 L 33-21 H #114 Hilliard Bradley (3-1) D1 R2, pick: W by 20 (87%), perf. rating 119
09/12 L 42-21 A #264 Thomas Worthington (1-3) D1 R3, pick: W by 32 (97%), perf. rating 85
09/19 H #162 Hilliard Darby (2-2) D1 R2, pick: L by 4 (40%)
09/26 H #104 New Albany (1-3) D2 R7, pick: L by 15 (17%)
10/03 A #183 Westerville Central (2-2) D1 R3, pick: L by 4 (40%)
10/10 A #17 Pickerington North (3-1) D1 R3, pick: L by 36 (1%)
10/17 H #62 Gahanna Lincoln (2-2) D1 R3, pick: L by 23 (7%)
10/24 A #504 Central Crossing (0-4) D1 R3, pick: W by 33 (99%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
11.25 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#12 seed in R3 playoffs
Playoff chances now
82% (bubble if 3-7), 24% home (maybe if 5-5)
Depending on the next game
Win: 13.80 ( 8.05-28.45) 97% in, 44% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#2-out), Gahanna Lincoln (2-2) 15%
Lose: 9.30 ( 5.40-25.35) 72% in, 10% home, 1% bye, proj. #11 (#4-out), Gahanna Lincoln (2-2) 19%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 7W: 21.40 (17.60-25.90) 100% in, 99% home, 7% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#9), Westerville Central (2-2) 18%
( 9%) 6W: 17.50 (13.10-23.30) 100% in, 84% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#11), Olentangy Berlin (0-4) 16%
(20%) 5W: 14.30 (10.45-20.25) 99% in, 48% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Olentangy Liberty (1-3) 16%
(32%) 4W: 11.25 ( 8.00-16.35) 94% in, 11% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Gahanna Lincoln (2-2) 20%
(35%) 3W: 8.65 ( 5.50-15.65) 56% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Gahanna Lincoln (2-2) 18%
( 1%) 2W: 7.95 ( 5.40-10.50) 37% in, proj. out (#9-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWWLWW: 21.33 (17.60-25.20) 100% in, 99% home, 4% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#9), Westerville Central (2-2) 19%
( 5%) WWWLLW: 16.85 (13.10-20.75) 100% in, 73% home, proj. #8 (#5-#11), Groveport Madison (1-3) 16%
(10%) WLWLLW: 14.25 (10.45-17.50) 100% in, 47% home, proj. #9 (#6-#12), Olentangy Liberty (1-3) 19%
(13%) WLLLLW: 11.28 ( 8.05-15.00) 92% in, 8% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Gahanna Lincoln (2-2) 19%
(13%) LLWLLW: 11.15 ( 8.00-14.25) 97% in, 10% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Gahanna Lincoln (2-2) 21%
( 4%) LWLLLW: 11.15 ( 8.60-14.35) 90% in, 6% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Gahanna Lincoln (2-2) 22%
(34%) LLLLLW: 8.60 ( 5.50-11.75) 56% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Gahanna Lincoln (2-2) 18%
( 1%) LLLLLL: 7.95 ( 5.40-10.50) 37% in, proj. out (#9-out), Westerville North (1-3) 22%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 123.4, #198, D1 #50), 82% (bubble if 3-7), 24% home (maybe if 5-5), proj. #12 at 4-6
Week 3 (2-1, 137.1, #117, D1 #39), likely in, 69% home (maybe if 6-4), 7% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #6 at 6-4
Week 2 (2-0, 147.3, #74, D1 #26), likely in, 86% home (maybe if 6-4), 26% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #6 at 8-2
Week 1 (1-0, 148.2, #69, D1 #29), 94% (bubble if 4-6), 69% home (maybe if 7-3), 22% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #5 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 143.1, #86, D1 #33), 82% (bubble if 5-5), 50% home (maybe if 7-3), 14% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #10 at 7-3
Last season 141.6