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Rankings
#50 of 80 in Division 1
#13 of 20 in Region 2
Strength of schedule #40 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #19 in D1 (+167 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 28-27 H #107 Canal Winchester (1-2) D2 R7, pick: L by 6 (39%), perf. rating 136
08/28 W 48-47 A #138 Westland (2-1) D1 R2, pick: W by 5 (60%), perf. rating 135
09/04 L 56-21 A #59 Hilliard Bradley (2-1) D1 R2, pick: W by 2 (54%), perf. rating 103
09/11 H #278 Thomas Worthington (2-1) D1 R3, pick: W by 17 (84%)
09/18 A #215 Dublin Coffman (1-2) D1 R2, pick: W by 4 (60%)
09/25 A #97 New Albany (2-1) D2 R7, pick: L by 14 (19%)
10/02 H #163 Westerville Central (2-1) D1 R3, pick: W by 1 (53%)
10/09 H #19 Pickerington North (2-1) D1 R3, pick: L by 33 (1%)
10/16 A #18 Gahanna Lincoln (3-0) D1 R3, pick: L by 35 (1%)
10/23 H #524 Central Crossing (0-3) D1 R2, pick: W by 38 (99%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
13.90 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#8 seed in R2 playoffs
Playoff chances now
98% (likely in at 3-7 or better), 56% home (maybe if 5-5), 7% bye (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 15.15 ( 7.50-34.15) 99% in, 63% home, 8% bye, proj. #8 (#1-out), Westland (2-1) 15%
Lose: 10.70 ( 4.90-28.25) 91% in, 17% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#2-out), Hilliard Darby (2-1) 14%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 8W: 25.15 (20.55-29.80) 100% home, 87% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#8), bye 87%
(14%) 7W: 20.00 (15.45-26.60) 100% in, 99% home, 31% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#10), bye 31%
(27%) 6W: 16.35 (11.15-23.50) 100% in, 85% home, 4% bye, proj. #7 (#2-#12), Westland (2-1) 16%
(28%) 5W: 13.90 ( 9.30-21.70) 99% in, 49% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#3-out), Westland (2-1) 17%
(22%) 4W: 12.00 ( 7.40-17.20) 98% in, 17% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#4-out), Westland (2-1) 15%
( 7%) 3W: 9.45 ( 5.50-13.95) 84% in, 2% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Hilliard Bradley (2-1) 16%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WWWWLWW: 25.25 (21.30-29.10) 100% home, 88% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#8), bye 88%
(12%) WWWWLLW: 19.40 (15.45-24.55) 100% in, 99% home, 27% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#10), bye 27%
( 3%) WWWLLLW: 16.88 (12.40-21.45) 100% in, 86% home, 3% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#11), Westland (2-1) 18%
(19%) WWLWLLW: 16.30 (11.15-22.75) 100% in, 83% home, 2% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#12), Westland (2-1) 16%
( 9%) WLLWLLW: 15.05 ( 9.95-20.25) 100% in, 61% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#12), Westland (2-1) 16%
(14%) WWLLLLW: 13.25 ( 9.30-19.65) 99% in, 39% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Westland (2-1) 18%
(16%) WLLLLLW: 12.00 ( 7.50-16.55) 98% in, 18% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#4-out), Westland (2-1) 15%
( 7%) LLLLLLW: 9.45 ( 5.50-12.65) 83% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Hilliard Darby (2-1) 16%
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (2-1, 126.9, #166, D1 #50), 98% (likely in at 3-7 or better), 56% home (maybe if 5-5), 7% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #8 at 5-5
Week 2 (2-0, 140.9, #89, D1 #32), likely in, 86% home (maybe if 4-6), 44% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #5 at 6-4
Week 1 (1-0, 139.2, #97, D1 #35), 84% (bubble if 4-6), 59% home (maybe if 5-5), 28% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #4 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 136.6, #112, D1 #39), 65% (bubble if 4-6), 42% home (maybe if 6-4), 19% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #11 at 5-5
Last season 135.7