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Rankings
#31 of 104 in Division 2
#9 of 27 in Region 7
Strength of schedule #8 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #26 in D2 (+88 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 14-11 H #45 London (4-0) D3 R12, pick: L by 20 (18%), perf. rating 147
08/29 L 35-7 A #19 Wadsworth (4-0) D2 R6, pick: L by 23 (12%), perf. rating 130
09/05 W 30-21 H #72 Olentangy Berlin (0-4) D1 R3, pick: L by 18 (16%), perf. rating 158
09/12 L 42-7 H #15 Upper Arlington (4-0) D1 R3, pick: L by 18 (14%), perf. rating 117
09/19 A #114 Hilliard Bradley (3-1) D1 R2, pick: L by 1 (48%)
09/26 A #198 Grove City (2-2) D1 R3, pick: W by 15 (83%)
10/03 H #62 Gahanna Lincoln (2-2) D1 R3, pick: L by 7 (33%)
10/10 A #504 Central Crossing (0-4) D1 R3, pick: W by 41 (99%)
10/17 A #17 Pickerington North (3-1) D1 R3, pick: L by 28 (3%)
10/24 H #183 Westerville Central (2-2) D1 R3, pick: W by 16 (85%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
13.50 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R7 playoffs
Playoff chances now
28% (bubble if 5-5), 8% home (maybe if 6-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 14.15 ( 5.20-26.50) 49% in, 16% home, 2% bye, proj. out (#2-out), Northland (2-2) 11%
Lose: 9.60 ( 1.30-21.95) 9% in, 1% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Westerville South (3-1) 11%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 7W: 23.25 (20.65-26.50) 100% in, 99% home, 33% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#9), bye 33%
(18%) 6W: 17.40 (14.80-23.25) 97% in, 33% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Northland (2-2) 11%
(30%) 5W: 13.50 ( 9.60-18.70) 27% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Westerville South (3-1) 12%
(28%) 4W: 9.70 ( 7.00-14.25) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
(16%) 3W: 6.45 ( 4.45-11.55) out, proj. out
( 6%) 2W: 3.90 ( 1.30- 7.80) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWWWWW: 23.25 (20.65-26.50) 100% in, 99% home, 33% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#9), bye 33%
(16%) WWWWLW: 17.40 (14.80-20.65) 96% in, 29% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Northland (2-2) 12%
( 9%) LWWWLW: 14.15 (11.55-16.75) 38% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), DeSales (Columbus) (3-1) 13%
(17%) WWLWLW: 12.85 ( 9.60-16.75) 18% in, proj. out (#9-out), Westerville South (3-1) 13%
(19%) LWLWLW: 9.60 ( 7.00-12.20) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Louisville (4-0) 67%
( 7%) LWLWLL: 6.45 ( 4.50- 9.05) out
( 7%) LLLWLW: 6.40 ( 4.45- 8.35) out
( 5%) LLLWLL: 3.90 ( 1.30- 5.20) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 140.1, #104, D2 #31), 28% (bubble if 5-5), 8% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 5-5
Week 3 (1-2, 144.2, #85, D2 #25), 53% (bubble if 5-5), 26% home (maybe if 6-4), 6% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #11 at 5-5
Week 2 (0-2, 133.8, #130, D2 #35), 14% (bubble if 5-5), 6% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (0-1, 138.0, #118, D2 #30), 35% (bubble if 4-6), 20% home (maybe if 5-5), 8% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 132.7, #140, D2 #33), 32% (bubble if 4-6), 19% home (maybe if 5-5), 9% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 131.0