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Rankings
#48 of 72 in Division 1
#11 of 18 in Region 3
Strength of schedule #39 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #45 in D1 (-225 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 24-0 A #127 Westerville North (1-3) D1 R3, pick: L by 24 (14%), perf. rating 102
08/29 L 24-0 H #144 Westerville South (3-1) D2 R7, pick: L by 10 (31%), perf. rating 95
09/05 W 23-6 H #220 Bellefontaine (2-2) D3 R12, pick: L by 14 (22%), perf. rating 142
09/12 W 24-16 H #106 Dublin Jerome (3-1) D1 R2, pick: L by 29 (4%), perf. rating 150
09/19 A #41 Olentangy (3-1) D1 R3, pick: L by 28 (4%)
09/26 A #17 Pickerington North (3-1) D1 R3, pick: L by 35 (1%)
10/03 H #198 Grove City (2-2) D1 R3, pick: W by 4 (60%)
10/10 A #62 Gahanna Lincoln (2-2) D1 R3, pick: L by 24 (6%)
10/17 H #504 Central Crossing (0-4) D1 R3, pick: W by 36 (99%)
10/24 A #104 New Albany (1-3) D2 R7, pick: L by 16 (15%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
11.65 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#11 seed in R3 playoffs
Playoff chances now
87% (bubble if 3-7), 22% home (maybe if 5-5)
Depending on the next game
Win: 18.00 (11.05-31.15) 100% in, 76% home, 4% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#12), Grove City (2-2) 15%
Lose: 11.30 ( 5.40-26.10) 86% in, 19% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#4-out), Gahanna Lincoln (2-2) 19%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 4%) 6W: 19.50 (15.25-23.80) 100% in, 97% home, 1% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#10), Grove City (2-2) 16%
(18%) 5W: 15.05 (10.50-21.40) 99% in, 59% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), Gahanna Lincoln (2-2) 17%
(46%) 4W: 11.65 ( 7.95-17.70) 97% in, 15% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Gahanna Lincoln (2-2) 20%
(32%) 3W: 8.80 ( 5.40-13.80) 64% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Gahanna Lincoln (2-2) 19%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) LLWWWW: 19.05 (15.25-22.15) 100% in, 97% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#10), Gahanna Lincoln (2-2) 17%
( 1%) WLWLWL: 17.12 (14.45-19.65) 100% in, 75% home, proj. #8 (#5-#10), Westerville North (1-3) 17%
( 4%) LLWWWL: 15.70 (11.85-18.90) 100% in, 80% home, proj. #8 (#5-#11), Gahanna Lincoln (2-2) 23%
(11%) LLWLWW: 14.55 (10.50-17.80) 99% in, 49% home, proj. #9 (#6-out), Gahanna Lincoln (2-2) 16%
( 1%) LLLWWL: 12.70 ( 9.95-16.30) 99% in, 27% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Grove City (2-2) 18%
(39%) LLWLWL: 11.65 ( 7.95-15.65) 98% in, 15% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Gahanna Lincoln (2-2) 20%
( 5%) LLLLWW: 11.35 ( 7.95-15.00) 92% in, 5% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Gahanna Lincoln (2-2) 20%
(31%) LLLLWL: 8.80 ( 5.40-11.95) 63% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Gahanna Lincoln (2-2) 19%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 125.6, #183, D1 #48), 87% (bubble if 3-7), 22% home (maybe if 5-5), proj. #11 at 4-6
Week 3 (1-2, 112.9, #269, D1 #59), 10% (bubble if 3-7), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 2 (0-2, 103.9, #331, D1 #65), 5% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely, proj. out at 1-9
Week 1 (0-1, 112.0, #275, D1 #63), 14% (bubble if 4-6), 3% home (maybe if 5-5), proj. out at 2-8
Week 0 (0-0, 114.8, #244, D1 #63), 21% (bubble if 4-6), 7% home (maybe if 6-4), 2% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 2-8
Last season 107.4