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Rankings
#49 of 80 in Division 1
#13 of 20 in Region 3
Strength of schedule #46 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #54 in D1 (-176 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 21-0 A #430 Marion-Franklin (0-3) D4 R15, pick: W by 22 (84%), perf. rating 123
08/28 W 17-0 A #226 Westerville South (1-2) D1 R3, pick: L by 21 (15%), perf. rating 147
09/04 L 14-6 H #121 Westerville North (2-1) D1 R3, pick: W by 5 (61%), perf. rating 121
09/11 A #185 Dublin Jerome (1-2) D1 R2, pick: W by 1 (52%)
09/18 H #28 Olentangy Berlin (2-1) D1 R3, pick: L by 29 (3%)
09/25 H #19 Pickerington North (2-1) D1 R3, pick: L by 33 (2%)
10/02 A #166 Grove City (2-1) D1 R2, pick: L by 1 (47%)
10/09 H #18 Gahanna Lincoln (3-0) D1 R3, pick: L by 33 (1%)
10/16 A #524 Central Crossing (0-3) D1 R2, pick: W by 36 (99%)
10/23 H #97 New Albany (2-1) D2 R7, pick: L by 9 (28%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
9.00 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R3 playoffs
Playoff chances now
35% (bubble if 5-5), 6% home (likely needs 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 12.25 ( 3.75-34.65) 54% in, 11% home, 1% bye, proj. #12 (#2-out), Olentangy Orange (2-1) 12%
Lose: 7.70 ( 2.40-29.55) 13% in, 1% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#2-out), Worthington Kilbourne (3-0) 16%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 8W: 25.95 (20.20-30.15) 100% home, 43% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#8), bye 43%
( 3%) 7W: 20.85 (15.60-26.10) 100% in, 83% home, 2% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#12), Westerville North (2-1) 15%
(14%) 6W: 15.90 (10.65-24.30) 94% in, 18% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#4-out), Pickerington Central (0-3) 13%
(26%) 5W: 12.15 ( 6.90-18.60) 54% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#6-out), Worthington Kilbourne (3-0) 16%
(30%) 4W: 9.00 ( 3.75-16.65) 10% in, proj. out (#9-out), Worthington Kilbourne (3-0) 22%
(24%) 3W: 6.00 ( 2.45-13.25) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
( 1%) 2W: 5.40 ( 2.40- 8.75) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WLLWWWW: 21.23 (16.95-25.45) 100% in, 81% home, 2% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#10), Westerville North (2-1) 19%
(11%) WLLWLWW: 15.50 (10.65-21.50) 94% in, 14% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Pickerington Central (0-3) 14%
(14%) WLLWLWL: 11.80 ( 6.90-17.15) 49% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Worthington Kilbourne (3-0) 17%
( 6%) WLLLLWW: 11.70 ( 7.35-16.40) 49% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Worthington Kilbourne (3-0) 17%
(11%) LLLWLWL: 9.32 ( 5.00-13.55) 11% in, proj. out (#9-out), Worthington Kilbourne (3-0) 22%
(13%) WLLLLWL: 8.45 ( 3.75-14.00) 7% in, proj. out (#10-out), Worthington Kilbourne (3-0) 21%
(24%) LLLLLWL: 6.00 ( 2.45-10.25) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Olentangy Berlin (2-1) 50%
( 1%) LLLLLLL: 5.40 ( 2.40- 8.75) out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (2-1, 127.5, #163, D1 #49), 35% (bubble if 5-5), 6% home (likely needs 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (2-0, 134.1, #125, D1 #41), 64% (bubble if 5-5), 26% home (maybe if 7-3), 6% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #11 at 5-5
Week 1 (1-0, 118.6, #226, D1 #60), 17% (bubble if 5-5), 6% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 116.2, #229, D1 #59), 29% (bubble if 5-5), 10% home (maybe if 7-3), 3% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 119.8