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Rankings
#24 of 72 in Division 1
#6 of 18 in Region 3
Strength of schedule #7 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #31 in D1 (-10 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 26-6 H #41 Olentangy (3-1) D1 R3, pick: W by 24 (86%), perf. rating 125
08/29 L 13-7 H #18 Glenville (2-2) D4 R13, pick: L by 16 (21%), perf. rating 159
09/05 L 20-14 A #62 Gahanna Lincoln (2-2) D1 R3, pick: W by 9 (69%), perf. rating 142
09/12 W 10-7 H #72 Olentangy Berlin (0-4) D1 R3, pick: W by 3 (56%), perf. rating 149
09/19 A #106 Dublin Jerome (3-1) D1 R2, pick: W by 7 (67%)
09/26 A #161 Dublin Coffman (1-3) D1 R2, pick: W by 18 (87%)
10/03 H #15 Upper Arlington (4-0) D1 R3, pick: L by 20 (10%)
10/10 A #114 Hilliard Bradley (3-1) D1 R2, pick: W by 8 (70%)
10/17 A #53 Hilliard Davidson (3-1) D1 R2, pick: L by 3 (42%)
10/24 H #10 Olentangy Orange (4-0) D1 R3, pick: L by 24 (6%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
12.75 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#8 seed in R3 playoffs
Playoff chances now
76% (bubble if 3-7), 38% home (maybe if 4-6), 2% bye (likely needs 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 14.15 ( 5.15-30.85) 94% in, 52% home, 3% bye, proj. #8 (#1-out), Westerville North (1-3) 13%
Lose: 7.10 ( 0.65-25.65) 40% in, 8% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#2-out), Gahanna Lincoln (2-2) 16%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 7W: 28.90 (26.30-30.85) 100% home, 95% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 95%
( 9%) 6W: 22.78 (19.15-28.90) 100% home, 8% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#8), Westerville Central (2-2) 17%
(22%) 5W: 17.25 (13.40-23.10) 100% in, 87% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#11), Westerville Central (2-2) 16%
(29%) 4W: 12.75 ( 9.00-19.30) 99% in, 28% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Gahanna Lincoln (2-2) 19%
(22%) 3W: 8.90 ( 5.65-14.90) 66% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Gahanna Lincoln (2-2) 19%
(13%) 2W: 5.15 ( 1.90- 9.75) 8% in, proj. out (#9-out)
( 4%) 1W: 3.25 ( 0.65- 4.55) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWWWWW: 28.90 (26.30-30.85) 100% home, 95% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 95%
( 5%) WWWWWL: 22.40 (19.15-25.00) 100% home, 9% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#8), Westerville Central (2-2) 17%
(16%) WWLWWL: 16.65 (13.40-19.85) 100% in, 84% home, proj. #8 (#5-#11), Olentangy Berlin (0-4) 17%
(16%) WWLWLL: 12.25 ( 9.00-15.45) 99% in, 24% home, proj. #9 (#6-out), Gahanna Lincoln (2-2) 19%
( 8%) WWLLLL: 9.00 ( 5.75-12.25) 73% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Gahanna Lincoln (2-2) 20%
( 8%) LWLWLL: 7.75 ( 5.80-10.35) 47% in, proj. out (#9-out), Olentangy (3-1) 23%
( 8%) LWLLLL: 4.50 ( 1.90- 7.10) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Olentangy (3-1) 50%
( 4%) LLLLLL: 3.25 ( 0.65- 4.55) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 149.1, #61, D1 #24), 76% (bubble if 3-7), 38% home (maybe if 4-6), 2% bye (likely needs 7-3), proj. #8 at 4-6
Week 3 (0-3, 148.7, #66, D1 #28), 64% (bubble if 2-8), 31% home (maybe if 4-6), 5% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. #10 at 3-7
Week 2 (0-2, 155.7, #45, D1 #18), 83% (bubble if 2-8), 57% home (maybe if 4-6), 25% bye (likely needs 7-3), proj. #7 at 5-5
Week 1 (0-1, 154.7, #43, D1 #19), 79% (bubble if 3-7), 52% home (maybe if 5-5), 26% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #7 at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 173.3, #13, D1 #5), 93% (bubble if 3-7), 84% home (maybe if 5-5), 66% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #1 at 8-2
Last season 180.8