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Rankings
#8 of 72 in Division 1
#3 of 18 in Region 3
Strength of schedule #40 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #6 in D1 (+455 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 24-0 A #2 St Edward (4-0) D1 R1, pick: L by 19 (19%), perf. rating 158
08/29 W 20-7 A #64 St Ignatius (0-4) D1 R1, pick: W by 4 (58%), perf. rating 170
09/05 W 17-3 H #25 Pickerington Central (3-1) D1 R3, pick: L by 5 (39%), perf. rating 184
09/12 W 24-0 A #161 Dublin Coffman (1-3) D1 R2, pick: W by 29 (96%), perf. rating 167
09/19 H #264 Thomas Worthington (1-3) D1 R3, pick: W by 40 (99%)
09/26 H #183 Westerville Central (2-2) D1 R3, pick: W by 35 (99%)
10/03 A #504 Central Crossing (0-4) D1 R3, pick: W by 49 (99%)
10/10 H #198 Grove City (2-2) D1 R3, pick: W by 36 (99%)
10/17 H #104 New Albany (1-3) D2 R7, pick: W by 28 (97%)
10/24 A #62 Gahanna Lincoln (2-2) D1 R3, pick: W by 19 (89%)
Regular season projections
9-1 record
26.60 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#4 seed in R3 playoffs
Playoff chances now
appears locked in and likely home, 65% bye (maybe if 9-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 26.10 (11.40-31.25) 100% in, 99% home, 66% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#12), bye 66%
Based on eventual number of wins
(79%) 9W: 26.60 (22.95-31.25) 100% home, 79% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#7), bye 79%
(18%) 8W: 22.10 (18.35-29.05) 100% in, 99% home, 16% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#9), bye 16%
( 3%) 7W: 18.45 (14.65-23.90) 100% in, 94% home, 3% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#10), Westerville Central (2-2) 16%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(79%) WWWWWW: 26.60 (22.95-31.25) 100% home, 79% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#7), bye 79%
( 4%) WWWWLW: 22.80 (19.70-26.70) 100% home, 29% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#8), bye 29%
(11%) WWWWWL: 21.50 (18.35-26.75) 100% in, 99% home, 7% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#9), Westerville Central (2-2) 17%
( 2%) WWWWLL: 18.20 (14.65-22.25) 100% in, 97% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#9), Westerville Central (2-2) 18%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 169.9, #17, D1 #8), appears locked in and likely home, 65% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #4 at 9-1
Week 3 (2-1, 170.5, #16, D1 #7), likely in and likely home, 73% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #3 at 9-1
Week 2 (1-1, 162.3, #28, D1 #13), 97% (bubble if 5-5), 75% home (maybe if 7-3), 23% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #5 at 8-2
Week 1 (0-1, 157.8, #37, D1 #17), 84% (bubble if 4-6), 50% home (maybe if 7-3), 11% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #8 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 162.6, #27, D1 #12), 87% (bubble if 4-6), 62% home (maybe if 6-4), 27% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #7 at 7-3
Last season 164.1