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Rankings
#24 of 79 in Division 1
#7 of 20 in Region 3
Strength of schedule #7 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #27 in D1 (+91 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 21-6 A #54 Olentangy Berlin (5-2) D1 R3, pick: W by 26 (88%), perf. rating 130
08/28 W 33-0 A #135 Westerville North (4-3) D1 R3, pick: W by 24 (89%), perf. rating 184
09/04 W 28-7 A #98 Olentangy (3-4) D1 R3, pick: W by 29 (95%), perf. rating 173
09/11 L 34-9 A #18 Gahanna Lincoln (7-0) D1 R3, pick: L by 7 (34%), perf. rating 135
09/18 L 51-7 H #12 Pickerington North (6-1) D1 R3, pick: L by 13 (21%), perf. rating 111
09/25 W 25-6 H #178 Hilliard Davidson (2-5) D1 R2, pick: W by 26 (95%), perf. rating 152
10/02 W 28-12 A #198 Dublin Coffman (1-6) D1 R2, pick: W by 22 (92%), perf. rating 149
10/09 H #17 Upper Arlington (5-2) D1 R3, pick: L by 19 (11%)
10/16 A #55 Hilliard Bradley (5-2) D1 R2, pick: L by 3 (42%)
10/23 H #30 Olentangy Liberty (4-3) D1 R3, pick: L by 10 (26%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
15.40 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#10 seed in R3 playoffs
Playoff chances now
57% (likely needs 5-5), 18% home (likely needs 6-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 20.55 (14.70-26.40) 99% in, 71% home, 9% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), St Charles (7-0) 29%
Lose: 14.75 ( 9.55-21.90) 52% in, 12% home, proj. #12 (#5-out), St Charles (7-0) 29%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 7W: 25.10 (23.80-26.40) 100% home, 32% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#6), bye 32%
(17%) 6W: 19.95 (18.65-23.10) 100% in, 85% home, proj. #8 (#5-#11), St Charles (7-0) 45%
(38%) 5W: 15.40 (13.45-18.00) 99% in, 2% home, proj. #10 (#8-out), St Charles (7-0) 24%
(42%) 4W: 10.85 ( 9.55-13.45) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) WWW: 25.10 (23.80-26.40) 100% home, 32% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#6), bye 32%
( 4%) WWL: 20.55 (19.25-23.10) 100% in, 90% home, proj. #8 (#6-#10), St Charles (7-0) 48%
( 1%) WLW: 20.55 (19.25-22.50) 100% in, 93% home, proj. #7 (#5-#9), St Charles (7-0) 34%
(12%) LWW: 19.95 (18.65-21.90) 100% in, 83% home, proj. #8 (#5-#11), St Charles (7-0) 46%
( 3%) WLL: 16.00 (14.70-17.95) 99% in, 4% home, proj. #10 (#8-out), St Charles (7-0) 32%
(25%) LWL: 15.40 (14.10-18.00) 99% in, 2% home, proj. #10 (#8-out), Olentangy Berlin (5-2) 26%
(10%) LLW: 15.40 (13.45-17.35) 99% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), St Charles (7-0) 23%
(42%) LLL: 10.85 ( 9.55-13.45) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Olentangy Liberty (4-3) 42%
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (4-3, 149.0, #57, D1 #24), 57% (likely needs 5-5), 18% home (likely needs 6-4), proj. #10 at 5-5
Week 6 (3-3, 148.9, #64, D1 #28), 63% (bubble if 4-6), 14% home (likely needs 6-4), proj. #12 at 4-6
Week 5 (2-3, 148.2, #66, D1 #28), 55% (bubble if 4-6), 14% home (likely needs 6-4), proj. out at 4-6
Week 4 (2-2, 157.4, #43, D1 #21), 73% (bubble if 4-6), 34% home (likely needs 6-4), 7% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #10 at 5-5
Week 3 (2-1, 167.0, #23, D1 #12), 93% (bubble if 4-6), 69% home (maybe if 5-5), 24% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #6 at 6-4
Week 2 (1-1, 165.4, #27, D1 #12), 92% (bubble if 4-6), 73% home (maybe if 5-5), 35% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #6 at 6-4
Week 1 (0-1, 164.8, #28, D1 #14), 83% (bubble if 4-6), 62% home (maybe if 5-5), 33% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #6 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 182.1, #3, D1 #1), 98% (bubble if 3-7), 92% home (maybe if 5-5), 78% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #1 at 9-1
Last season 190.4