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Rankings
#72 of 103 in Division 7
#18 of 25 in Region 25
Strength of schedule #69 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #78 in D7 (-527 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 41-14 H #531 Loudonville (2-1) D7 R27, pick: L by 27 (11%), perf. rating 34
08/28 W 40-22 H #650 Wellington (0-2) D6 R21, pick: L by 14 (24%), perf. rating 66
09/05 L 43-36 A #632 Crestline (2-1) D7 R27, pick: W by 3 (57%), perf. rating 41
09/11 H #270 W. Reserve (Collins) (3-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 43 (1%)
09/25 A #617 South Central (1-2) D7 R25, pick: L by 9 (28%)
10/02 H #490 Monroeville (0-3) D7 R25, pick: L by 28 (4%)
10/09 A #679 New London (0-3) D7 R25, pick: W by 19 (89%)
10/16 A #557 St Paul (1-2) D7 R25, pick: L by 24 (6%)
10/23 A #634 Crestview (Ashland) (0-3) D6 R22, pick: L by 4 (40%)
Regular season projections
3-6 record
2.44 Harbin points (divisor 86)
out of R25 playoffs
Playoff chances now
6% (bubble if 5-4), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 8.27 ( 4.59-13.53) 88% in, 39% home, 6% bye, proj. #9 (#2-out), Independence (2-1) 12%
Lose: 2.09 ( 0.44- 8.96) 6% in, 1% home, proj. out (#5-out), Mogadore (2-1) 14%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 6W: 7.91 ( 7.44-12.09) 100% in, 60% home, 2% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#12), Independence (2-1) 12%
( 5%) 5W: 5.83 ( 4.96-10.20) 77% in, 4% home, proj. #11 (#5-out), Mogadore (2-1) 13%
(16%) 4W: 3.82 ( 2.95- 8.35) 9% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), Mogadore (2-1) 16%
(33%) 3W: 2.44 ( 1.68- 6.63) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
(35%) 2W: 1.24 ( 0.83- 5.42) out, proj. out
(10%) 1W: 0.85 ( 0.44- 2.48) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) LWWWWW: 7.91 ( 7.44- 8.96) 100% in, 53% home, proj. #8 (#5-#12), Independence (2-1) 14%
( 3%) LWLWWW: 5.83 ( 5.31- 8.16) 75% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Mogadore (2-1) 15%
( 3%) LLLWWW: 4.17 ( 3.29- 5.85) 8% in, proj. out (#10-out), Springfield (New Midd.) (1-2) 24%
(10%) LWLWLW: 3.76 ( 3.29- 6.32) 3% in, proj. out (#9-out), Independence (2-1) 21%
(11%) LWLWLL: 2.44 ( 2.04- 5.23) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Cuyahoga Heights (2-1) 33%
(18%) LLLWLW: 2.09 ( 1.68- 4.13) out
(31%) LLLWLL: 1.24 ( 0.83- 3.45) out
(10%) LLLLLL: 0.85 ( 0.44- 2.48) out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (1-2, 47.3, #640, D7 #72), 6% (bubble if 5-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-6
Week 2 (1-1, 52.3, #628, D7 #64), 12% (bubble if 5-4), 2% home (likely needs 7-2), proj. out at 3-6
Week 1 (0-1, 37.6, #665, D7 #82), 5% (bubble if 5-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-7
Week 0 (0-0, 39.9, #666, D7 #84), 6% (bubble if 5-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-7
Last season 34.8