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Rankings
#95 of 107 in Division 6
#22 of 27 in Region 21
Strength of schedule #77 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #89 in D6 (-598 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 60-0 A #529 Loudonville (2-2) D7 R27, pick: W by 4 (57%), perf. rating 15
08/29 L 28-12 A #597 Wellington (2-2) D5 R18, pick: L by 16 (21%), perf. rating 39
09/05 W 35-28 H #666 Crestline (2-2) D7 R27, pick: W by 10 (71%), perf. rating 48
09/12 L 43-2 A #350 W. Reserve (Collins) (3-1) D6 R22, pick: L by 43 (1%), perf. rating 44
09/19 A #671 Plymouth (0-4) D7 R25, pick: W by 3 (57%)
09/26 H #656 South Central (0-4) D7 R25, pick: W by 1 (53%)
10/03 A #369 Monroeville (2-2) D7 R25, pick: L by 42 (1%)
10/10 H #678 New London (2-2) D6 R21, pick: W by 10 (74%)
10/17 H #405 St Paul (2-2) D7 R25, pick: L by 38 (1%)
10/24 H #352 Crestview (Ashland) (2-2) D6 R23, pick: L by 41 (1%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
3.95 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R21 playoffs
Playoff chances now
unlikely to contend for playoffs
Depending on the next game
Win: 4.35 ( 1.40- 9.90) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
Lose: 2.90 ( 1.05- 8.60) out, proj. out
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 5W: 7.10 ( 6.05- 8.80) out, proj. out
(30%) 4W: 4.80 ( 3.90- 8.15) out, proj. out
(31%) 3W: 3.95 ( 2.10- 6.65) out, proj. out
(25%) 2W: 2.90 ( 1.40- 5.60) out, proj. out
(13%) 1W: 1.85 ( 1.05- 2.90) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(29%) WWLWLL: 4.80 ( 3.90- 6.25) out
(14%) WLLWLL: 4.00 ( 2.85- 5.80) out
(11%) LWLWLL: 4.00 ( 2.85- 5.80) out
(13%) LLLWLL: 3.25 ( 2.15- 4.35) out
( 5%) WWLLLL: 3.25 ( 2.10- 4.80) out
( 7%) WLLLLL: 2.55 ( 1.40- 4.00) out
( 4%) LWLLLL: 2.55 ( 1.40- 4.00) out
(13%) LLLLLL: 1.85 ( 1.05- 2.90) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 41.6, #660, D6 #95), unlikely to contend for playoffs, proj. out at 3-7
Week 3 (1-2, 41.3, #658, D6 #95), 1% (must have at least 5-5 for any chance), proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (0-2, 39.7, #665, D6 #96), 1% (must have at least 5-5 for any chance), proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (0-1, 40.5, #669, D6 #96), 1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance), proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 63.0, #595, D6 #83), 26% (bubble if 6-4), 8% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 57.3